ESPN FPI Predicts BYU vs. Notre Dame Top 10 Showdown, Updates BYU Win Total

The Cougars and the Irish will battle it out in a top 10 clash - BYU's odds to win

BYU tight end Walker Lyons against Iowa StateBYU Football | BYU Photo

The game that has been circled since the schedule was released is finally here. Not only that, but the two teams have lived up to the preseason hype and come into this game ranked inside the top 10. The no. 8 BYU Cougars host the no. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the first top 10 matchup in the history of LaVell Edwards Stadium. Here's what ESPN FPI says about BYU-Notre Dame and the remainder of BYU's schedule.

BYU FPI win % by game | BYU On SI

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 21.8% chance to beat Notre Dame. After the win over Iowa State, BYU climbed to 14th nationally in FPI. Notre Dame, meanwhile, jumped to the top spot in the country after dominating Stanford.

That's right - BYU has the chance to test test against the top team in the country per FPI. The Fighting Irish have beaten every team they've played by double digits since suffering a pair of early losses in the 2025 season.

After a showing against Iowa State that was more dominant than the final score suggests, BYU's chances to win every remaining Big 12 game increased. The Cougars have at least a 66% chance to win every Big 12 game besides the Utah game.

Double-digit Wins is Now a Coin Flip

Going into the season, a 9-3 regular season was the most likely outcome for BYU. After beating Iowa State and improving to 5-0 on the season, a 10-2 season is the most likely outcome.

We used the FPI game probabilities to calculate BYU's chances to reach each win threshold. There is a 50% chance that BYU will win 10 or more games in 2026. To make the College Football Playoff, BYU will probably need to go 11-1 in the regular season or win the Big 12 championship. More on the College Football Playoffs in the moment.

The chances that BYU reaches each win threshold per FPI win probabilities | BYU On SI

To reach 11 wins, first BYU would need to win every game it is favored to win. That is much easier said than done. FPI gives BYU a 27% chance to go 5-0 against UCF, Arizona State, Baylor, Kansas, and Cincinnati.

Then, BYU would need to split the Notre Dame and Utah games. FPI gives BYU a 51% chance to go 1-1 in the Notre Dame and Utah games, an 8% chance to go 2-0 in those games, and a 42% chance to go 0-2.

Where FPI could be wrong about BYU

FPI is just an analytical-based prediction model that can miss key context. So where could BYU be wrong about BYU?

BYU has taken its foot off the gas in multiple games to give backups reps. Unlike Dan Lanning who scored a touchdown with less than a minute remaining against Portland State in an 84-0 win, BYU has taken a few knees that would have increased the model's outlook on BYU.

Additionally, the games against Colorado State and Iowa State were not nearly as close as the final scores suggested. The FPI model would have viewed a 34-point win over Colorado State very differently than an 18-point win. In that game, BYU gave opportunities to its backups who allowed 16 points in the fourth quarter. That's the kind of context that the model can't account for.

On the other hand, the model also doesn't account for an injury to a key player like LJ Martin. In that regard, the model may inflate BYU's chances.

These models are far from perfect, but despite their imperfections, they do a good job at a macro level of predicting how games will go.

What This Means for BYU's Big 12 Championship Aspirations

BYU's chances to reach the College Football Playoff increase slightly with every win. The Cougars now have a 41% chance to reach the playoff per FPI and the third-best odds to win the Big 12. Since the best teams in the Big 12 have lived up to the preseason expectations so far, this is the best chance the Big 12 has had to get multiple teams into the 12-team field.

Per FPI, nine Big 12 teams have already been eliminated from the Big 12 title race: Iowa State, UCF, Cincinnati, TCU, ASU, Colorado, WVU, Kansas, and Kansas State. That leaves seven teams with at least a 1.9% chance to win the Big 12, headlined by Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU. There is an 83.3% chance that one of those three teams will win the league, per FPI.

Big 12 championship odds for the top seven teams in the Big 12 | BYU On SI

Despite their win over Oregon, FPI is not as high on Oklahoma State. If Oklahoma State beats a ranked Houston team on the road this week, they will cement themselves as the fourth contender in the league.

Baylor is a sneaky team to watch. There is a real chance they could be 8-1 when they come to Provo in November.

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