Five Reasons BYU Can Top TCU
In a conference full of new faces for BYU, TCU is certainly not one of them. The BYU-TCU rivalry traces its roots back to the WAC and has produced classics on both sides. The defending national runner-up TCU is looking to save its season Saturday while BYU looks for its first conference win over a legacy Big 12 member. Here is why I like BYU's chances.
1. BYU's run game is showing life
BYU’s running backs found a little something in the run game against Cincinnati. The final numbers obviously weren’t eye popping, but there was explosiveness to pose a threat to Cincinnati’s defense. The run game has quietly improved as the season progresses, and the Cougar’s have had a full bye week to reevaluate the run game. I don’t think BYU will be able to match TCU run for run, but I think the BYU run game will be just good enough for Kedon Slovis to cook against TCU’s 89th ranked pass defense.
2. BYU makes more of their opportunities than TCU
Against all odds, BYU is showing that you don’t need to put up 500 yards of offense to win football games. How is that possible? Finish drives. BYU’s offense has not been able to move the ball consistently by any stretch, but when they do, they are going to score. When BYU picks up at least 1 first down on a drive, BYU is scoring points 66% of the time and scoring touchdowns 58% of the time. BYU is in the bottom 20 nationally in total offense yet average 31 points per game because they are 14th nationally in red zone offense. TCU, on the other hand, is 13th nationally in total offense but also average 31 points per game because they rank 130th nationally in red zone offense. BYU’s style of play this season naturally leaves much less margin for error than TCU’s, but BYU can win this football game because they’ve demonstrated they can sustain it through five weeks.
3. BYU protects the football
One reason for TCU's red zone struggles is turnovers. The Horned frogs are 107th nationally in turnover margin while BYU ranks in the top 20. In a contest that will likely be decided by a turnover or two, I like BYU's chances.
4. TCU's back-up QB is shaky against pressure
We’ve said it before, but even if BYU isn’t filling up the stat sheet with sacks, they are getting solid pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Tyler Batty has been a one-man wrecking crew this season on BYU's defensive line with four sacks and six quarterback hits through five games. TCU backup QB Josh Hoover showed that he can get rattled when pressured against Iowa State. Hoover was pressured on 35% of his drop backs last week despite only being blitzed once. He managed just 2/6 passing when under pressure and was sacked twice. Emoni Bailey is going to rack up yards against BYU's defense, but if BYU can force TCU into passing situations, I like the odds of BYU's secondary and pass rush forcing Hoover into mistakes from the pocket.
5. BYU is more likely to make big plays when it counts
TCU is a wounded bear this week. After back to back devastating losses to West Virginia and Iowa State, TCU's season could be decided on Saturday. Win and you can salvage a disappointing season. Lose, and they probably don’t go bowling. I like BYU in this game because BYU has shown a resiliency that I’m not sure we’ve seen from TCU yet. TCU had opportunities to close out games against Colorado and West Virginia at home this season and could not get the job done. BYU, on the other hand, has largely been able to do just that against teams like Cincinnati and Arkansas. If this game comes down to one score, I feel more confident in BYU’s ability to make a winning play than TCU at this point.
Prediction
Winning on the road in the Big 12 is hard and Emoni Bailey should scare any BYU fan reading this. Even with a 3-3 record, TCU is likely the second most talented team BYU has played this season behind Arkansas. Still, I don’t know how much I trust TCU to make a play when it matters. TCU very well could beat BYU, but I don’t think they are going to do it in a one score game, and I see this one being close. This one will ultimately come down to the turnover battle, as most games do. If BYU is careless with the football like they were against Kansas, they will lose by double digits. However, we’ve seen enough of a sample size under Aaron Roderick to know that game is likely the exception.
I think we see more consistent life from the BYU offense in this one against a TCU defense that is 0-3 when they allow more than 20 points this season. TCU will move the ball efficiently, but their red zone struggles continue against a BYU team that is allowing just 22 points per game on defense.
BYU 31-24 TCU
