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Five Reasons BYU Can Upset Notre Dame

Breaking down how the Cougars can upset the Fighting Irish
Joe Wheat|
LaVell Edwards Stadium BYU vs Iowa Statedefault
LaVell Edwards Stadium BYU vs Iowa Statedefault | BYU Photo

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BYU Cougars

As soon as the game was announced, BYU fans prayed the season would play out exactly like this: BYU and Notre Dame undefeated, in the top 10, and with the entire college football world watching. BYU isn’t being given much of a shot here. As 10.5 home underdogs, BYU faces its biggest home game ever fueled by diet soda and disrespect.

We would like to preface this article by saying that Notre Dame is the no. 2 team in the country for a reason. There are no holes on this roster, which is loaded with NFL talent at every level. This is likely the best, and most talented, team to visit Provo since Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush’s no. 1 USC Trojans visited in 2004. They are good at everything, and finding any advantage over them is an intense research project. They are absolutely capable of running BYU out of their stadium. However, we don’t think that happens. Here are five reasons why.

BYU has to play ND’s pass rush, but ND has to play BYU’s

BYU defensive end Tausili Akana gets a sack against Arizona
BYU defensive end Tausili Akana gets a sack against Arizona | BYU Photo

Much has been made about Notre Dame's pass rush and rightfully so. Boubacar Traore, Bryce Young, and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa are absolutely electric off the edge and are a huge reason Notre Dame ranks no. 1 in pressures against power 4 opponents. But for all the talent on the Irish front, BYU’s got dudes too. BYU’s 36.7% pressure rate against P4 opponents ranks 10th nationally while their 10.5% sack rate actually exceeds Notre Dame’s 9.3%. Notre Dame's offensive line is unbelievable, allowing the 5th lowest pressure rate in all of college football, but you will never guess who ranks 2nd. More on that in a moment. All that is to say, if BYU has no shot because of Notre Dame's dominant pass rush, that same energy should be kept for BYU's pass rush, and the numbers back it up.

BYU’s offensive line has improved from last year and so has Bear Bachmeier

A common refrain in the lead up to this game is for BYU’s critics to simply point to the Texas Tech game from a year ago and say BYU cannot keep up with teams more talented than them. However, my own belief is that BYU stacked up against Texas Tech in every matchup except one: Tech’s defensive line against BYU’s offensive line. Texas Tech consistently got pressure with 4 against 7-man protections, leaving BYU to run 3 routes on 7 defenders. The results were not pretty. The difference is that BYU team ranked 75th in pressure rate allowed. This BYU team ranks 2nd against the 7th highest blitz rate faced in the country.

As was said before, Notre Dame’s pass rush is electric, but their havoc is driven more by turnovers than negative plays. The Irish rank 3rd in turnovers forced but 49th in tackles for loss generated per game. BYU’s starting offense has allowed one turnover all season and ranks no. 1 in tackles for loss allowed. If BYU’s line can keep the offense ahead of the chains, Bear Bachmeier will keep them moving. BYU’s offense ranks 7th in 3rd down conversion rate this season compared to 50th for Notre Dame.

A huge part of that success is Bear Bachmeier’s improvement. Everyone knows the value he adds as a runner. After all, Bachmeier ranks 11th in the Power Four in first down rate and 7th in yards after contact. As a passer, though, Bachmeier has taken a sizable step forward, ranking 17th in the P4 in EPA per dropback, compared to 35th last season. Perhaps his biggest progression, though, has been against pressure. Bachmeier ranks 3rd nationally in pass efficiency against pressure and 1st in yards per attempt. He also ranks 5th in completion percentage on a whopping 12.3 air yards per attempt.

Throwing against a secondary with multiple NFL draft picks will be no easy task, but BYU’s pass game actually ranks ahead of Notre Dame's secondary in terms of yards per attempt, completion percentage, and passing efficiency despite 4 of the 5 power 4 quarterbacks they’ve played all ranking below average in efficiency. Notre Dame has, without question, the best defense in college football this season, but BYU’s offense has taken enough steps forward from a talent standpoint that they shouldn’t look like the same team that mustered seven points the last time they played a defense this good.

BYU has weapons that they didn't have a year ago

BYU Football wide receiver Legend Glasker against Iowa State
BYU Football wide receiver Legend Glasker against Iowa State | BYU Photo

Every Notre Dame preview you will read will start and end with their secondary, as it is littered with future pros. The Irish 11th in EPA per drop back allowed thanks in large part to cornerback Leonard Moore, who is likely the best defensive player in all of college football. That said, the little success opposing offenses have found against Notre Dame have done it through the air.

Notre Dame ranks 34th in yards per attempt, 36th in pass efficiency allowed, and 30th in success rate on pass plays. Now they face probably the best collection of weapons they’ve seen so far. Among players with at least 20 targets, only 3 wide receivers have a perfect passer rating when targeted: Oklahoma State's Wyatt Young, Miami’s Malachi Toney, and BYU’s Legend Glasker. The true freshman ranks 15th in yards after catch, 6th in yards after catch per reception, and 3rd nationally in yards per route run. He’s also a weapon in the run game, leading all wide receivers in attempts, yards and touchdowns. Outside of him, BYU has three former blue-chip transfers that were brought to BYU for games like this.

Kyler Kasper, Walker Lyons, and Roger Saleapaga absolutely have the size, talent, and athleticism to compete with Notre Dame’s athletes on the back end. Lyons ranks as PFF’s 7th highest graded tight end while Kasper has proven to be a red zone weapon with 3 touchdowns on the year and at least 4 inches on every Notre Dame corner. Saleapaga hasn’t had the receiving volume of the other two, but has arguably been the most explosive, ranking 4th nationally among tight ends in yards after catch. Recruiting rankings don’t always translate to production, but this BYU team is better suited at the skill positions to match up against a Notre Dame than any BYU roster ever.

BYU’s defense is good enough to keep them in every game they play

BYU Football defensive line against Iowa State
BYU Football defensive line against Iowa State | BYU Photo

Cam Mellor of the Pro football Network went viral for the unpopular take that BYU’s defense was top to bottom more talented than Notre Dames. While I wouldn’t go that far, that should be taken as more of a compliment to BYU than a criticism of the Irish. BYU ranks 9th nationally in yards per play and scoring defense, with 4 of BYU’s 8 touchdowns allowed coming after BYU had already built a three-score second half lead. They rank 9th in defensive efficiency per SP+, which should be even more impressive considering the quality of offenses BYU has played. Per SP+, BYU has played the 42nd toughest collection of offenses this season while Notre Dame has faced the 79th most difficult set of defenses.

It’s been said by their supporters that BYU’s defense will be keep them in every game they play. That will be put to the ultimate test against an offense that ranks 4th in offensive efficiency per FPI. Wisconsin and Michigan State were able to hold the Irish in check at times, but have been otherwise dominant in every game they’ve played. The advanced analytics love Notre Dame except in one area: explosiveness. The Irish rank 96th in explosive play rate to BYU’s 24th in explosive plays allowed. Notre Dame may have found an answer in true freshman running back Jonaz Walton, who ran for 181 yards on 13 carries against Stanford. Even with that performance, Notre Dame ranks 37th in rushing yards per game and 38th in yards per carry compared to BYU’s 10th and 18th ranking in both categories. Stopping the Irish is easier said than done, but BYU has the horses to at least slow them down.

Lavell Edwards Stadium at Night

LaVell Edwards Stadium BYU vs Iowa State
LaVell Edwards Stadium BYU vs Iowa Statedefault | BYU Photo

While not many are giving BYU a chance in this game, absolutely everyone acknowledges that Saturday will be one of the most electric environments in the history of Lavell Edwards Stadium. That should garner more credence than it's getting. Per Cougar-archive.com, BYU is 10-3 all time in home night games against ranked opponents and has won eight straight since 2019. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has lost seven straight true road games against top 10 opponents dating back to 2012, including 0-3 under Marcus Freeman. Call it home field advantage, call it luck, call it magic, but BYU is a nightmare to play under the lights at Lavell Edwards stadium. If there was ever a game to prove that, it’s Saturday.

Prediction

BYU wide receiver Kyler Kasper against Iowa State
BYU wide receiver Kyler Kasper against Iowa State | Jaren Wilkey/BYU

There is a path here for BYU to win this game, even if it's narrow. For BYU to win, everything written here will have to be true. BYU’s lines will need to be equal to their opponent, Bear Bachmeier will need to be superman, BYU will need to sustain drives on third down, and BYU’s defense will need to be national championship caliber for four quarters. Many are bringing up last year's games against Texas Tech to discredit BYU, but the game it calls to mind for me was actually 2025 Utah.

People forget how dominant Utah looked going into that game. They were 5-1, but with an average scoring margin of 26 points per game. They were a top 10 power rated team with first round talents on both lines of scrimmage. BYU, meanwhile, was undefeated but far less impressive in the box score, and walked in a home underdog. BYU then did the exact things they need to do to pull off the improbable upset this weekend. Notre Dame is better than that Utah team was, but this BYU team is better too.

I think this one stays close. Both teams rank outside the top 130 in pace and will leave too few possessions for this to get out of control unless we are completely wrong about BYU’s offensive line. Both defenses control the game as BYU works out the growing pains at right tackle and Notre Dame struggles to find last week's run against a better BYU front seven. Ultimately, BYU forces enough stops and the offense sustains just enough drives to give Bear Bachmeier a shot at glory late. BYU wins by a familiar score.

BYU 24-21 Notre Dame

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.

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