FPI Predicts BYU vs East Carolina, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker against Stanford | BYU Photo

After a week off, BYU will be back in action this week as they travel across the country to take on ECU. The Pirates are 2-1 and coming off a shutout win over Coastal Carolina. ESPN FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-ECU and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2025 season.

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 71.6% chance to go on the road and beat the Pirates.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 8.7-3.3. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game, although four games would be considered "toss-ups".

• East Carolina - 71.6% (Down from 79.0% in the preseason)
• Colorado - 75.5% (Up from 61.9%)
• West Virginia - 87.7% (Up from 81.5%)
• Arizona - 62.6% (Down from 73.1%)
• Utah - 54.0% (Down from (70.0%)
• Iowa State - 55.2% (Up from 47.1%)
• Texas Tech - 51.4% (Down from 55.7%)
• TCU - 63.6% (Down from 68.1%)
• Cincinnati - 62.8% (Up from 60.5%)
• UCF - 82.2% (Up from 72.7%)

BYU's outlook for the Arizona game was downgraded after the Wildcats took down Kansas State. Same with Texas Tech and Cincinnati.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 29.1% chance to win 10 games or more and a 1.5% chance to go undefeated.

5 wins or more - 99.8%
6 wins or more - 98.4%
7 wins or more - 93.1%
8 wins or more - 79.4%
9 wins or more - 55.9%
10 wins or more - 29.1%
11 wins or more - 9.6%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.5%

FPI Rankings

BYU dropped to no. 22 in the FPI rankings after the bye week. The Cougars are the second highest-ranked team in the Big 12 behind Utah.

• Utah - 18th nationally
• BYU - 22
• TCU - 25
• Texas Tech - 26
• Kansas - 31
• Arizona State - 32
• Iowa State - 34
• Arizona - 38
• Baylor - 39
• Cincinnati - 46
• UCF - 48
• Houston - 49
• Kansas State - 50
• Colorado - 59
• West Virginia - 64
• Oklahoma State - 89

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, former Mountain West rivals BYU, Utah, and TCU lead the Big 12 according to FPI. Utah has quickly risen up the FPI rankings after a pair of blowout wins. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• Utah - 23.3%
• BYU - 19.4%
• TCU - 14.6%
• Texas Tech - 12.8%
• Iowa State - 6.2%
• Arizona State - 4.9%
• Baylor - 3.9%
• Arizona - 2.9%
• Houston - 2.4%
• Cincinnati - 1.7%
• UCF - 1.0%

BYU, Utah, TCU, and Texas Tech are the only three teams with more than a 10% chance to win the league according to FPI.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 23.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the second best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Utah - 27.6%
• BYU - 23.7%
• TCU - 17.6%
• Texas Tech - 15.2%
• Iowa State - 7.9%
• Kansas - 6.4%
• Arizona State - 4.8%
• Arizona - 3.9%
• Baylor - 3.9%
• Houston - 2.6%
• Cincinnati - 1.7%