%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20id%3D%22Layer_1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20width%3D%2239px%22%20height%3D%2240px%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%2039%2040%22%20enable-background%3D%22new%200%200%2039%2040%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M38.5%2C7H28.2v26h10.3V7z%22%2F%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20clip-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M26.1%2C25.5c0%2C5.8-4.1%2C7.5-12.9%2C7.5C3.9%2C33%2C0%2C31.2%2C0%2C25.2v-1.1h11.6%0A%09v2.4c0%2C0.7%2C0.1%2C1.4%2C1.2%2C1.4c1%2C0%2C1.2-0.4%2C1.2-1.3v-0.9c0-1.6-0.9-1.6-3.5-2.2C2.2%2C21.7%2C0%2C19.7%2C0%2C15.3v-0.9C0%2C9.3%2C5.5%2C7%2C12.9%2C7%0A%09c10.2%2C0%2C12.8%2C2.6%2C12.8%2C7.4v1.8h-11v-2.9c0-0.6-0.4-1.1-1.2-1.1c-0.6%2C0-1.2%2C0.4-1.2%2C1.1v0.9c0%2C1.5%2C0.9%2C2%2C3.3%2C2.5%0A%09c8%2C1.6%2C10.5%2C3.3%2C10.5%2C7.5V25.5z%22%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
College Football Upset Picks for Week 4 (Illinois Will Take Down Indiana in Rivalry Game)
I correctly hit on Texas A&M to upset Notre Dame last week, and I was close to cashing in on Tennessee over Georgia as well.
We now have a fresh slate of college football games to bet on in Week 4 and I once again have three underdogs I'm targeting in this game. Let's dive into them.
College Football Week 4 Upset Picks
- Nebraska +115 vs. Michigan via Caesars
- Illinois +195 vs. Indiana via DraftKings
- East Carolina +205 vs. BYU via Caesars
Nebraska +115 vs. Michigan
The advanced metrics between these two teams are extremely similar. They rank 15th and 17th in adjusted EPA per play, but it's Nebraska that has a slight edge in Net Yards per Play at +3.63, compared to Michigan at +2.57. With the Cornhuskers set as home underdogs, I'm going to take a shot on Nebraska in this Big Ten showdown.
Illinois +195 vs. Indiana
Illinois is an interesting underdog pick if you want to bet on an upset this week. The Fighting Illini rank 13th in the country in adjusted EPA per play, while Indiana comes in at 20th. Neither team has had a tough schedule to start the year, but the Illinois 45-19 win against Duke was the most impressive of the bunch.
East Carolina +205 vs. BYU
I'm still not exactly sure what BYU is, but I can confidently say that East Carolina is an underrated team. The Pirates are 21st in the country in adjusted EPA so far this season, along with a Net Yards per Play of +1.75 and a Success Rate of +13.2%. They hung around NC State in Week 1, losing by just one touchdown, then followed that up by beating Campbell and Coastal Carolina by a combined score of 94-3. BYU is the deserving favorite in this game, but I do think there's some edge to be had on East Carolina at the +205 price tag.
Use our exclusive Caesars Sportsbook promo code SICZR20X to double your winnings on your next 20 bets. Simply deposit $10 or more and place a first-time wager of at least $1, and Caesars will give you 20 100% profit boost tokens.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!
-eb6ee9a9f2179a90cbfe0d8c654d1a62.jpg "Iain MacMillan")
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.