FPI Predicts BYU vs TCU, Updates BYU's Conference Title Odds

BYU wide receiver Jojo Phillips against Texas Tech | BYU Photo

BYU is no longer undefeated. However, the Cougars still control their own destiny to the Big 12 title game. If BYU wins out, they will be in regardless of what happens around them in the standings. BYU will need to quickly turn the page and not allow one loss to spiral into two.

Every game from here on out is massive for BYU, starting with TCU on Saturday night. The Cougars will host the Horned Frogs in what will be a cold night game.

FPI gives BYU a 73.8% chance to beat the Horned Frogs in Provo.

FPI also updated its projected win total for BYU and it updated BYU's conference title odds. The Cougars' conference title hopes took a major blow after the blowout loss.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.2-1.8. The key for BYU will be to slightly outperform those expectations and get to 11 wins. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game.

• TCU - 73.8% (Up from 68.1% in the preseason)
• Cincinnati - 59.5% (Down from 60.5%)
• UCF - 87.9% (Up from 72.7%)

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 11 or more regular season wins since that is what it will require to make the title game without help. However, it's worth noting that 10 wins could still be enough to get to Arlington if the tiebreakers fall in BYU's favor. FPI gives BYU a 38.6% chance to win 11 games and make it to Arlington without help.

9 wins or more - 98.7%
10 wins or more - 83.9%
11 wins or more - 38.6%

The game at TCU is critical for BYU. A win over the Horned Frogs would increase BYU's chances to get to 11 wins from 38.6% to A win over the Red Raiders would increase BYU's chances to win 11 or more games to 52.3%.

FPI Rankings

BYU dropped three spots in the FPI rankings after a blowout loss to Texas Tech. Utah has maintained the top spot in the FPI rankings after blowing out Cincinnati and taking the week off (hint: algorithms like FPI love blowout wins).

BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams in the top 25 of FPI and all three are in the top 20. BYU's next two games are against teams in the top 35 of FPI.

• Utah - 9
• Texas Tech - 11
• BYU - 17
• TCU - 29
• Cincinnati - 34
• Iowa State - 37
• Kansas State - 38
• Arizona State - 42
• Arizona - 43
• Baylor - 48
• Kansas - 49
• Houston - 54
• UCF - 56
• Colorado - 69
• West Virginia - 73
• Oklahoma State - 122

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech is now the front-runner according to FPI, as they should be. The Cougars are still second behind Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders are looking like runaway favorites. There are only five teams remaining with at least a 1% chance to win the Big 12 title.

• Texas Tech - 69.5%
• BYU - 18.6%
• Utah - 7.2%
• Cincinnati - 3.3%
• Arizona State - 1.5%

FPI believes there is an 88.1% chance that either BYU or Texas Tech will win the league.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 45.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI - that is down from 74.3% last week. That's the second best odds in the conference. If the Big 12 is going to get two teams into the playoffs, it will likely need to be BYU and Texas Tech. Although Utah is lurking just outside the playoff picture as well. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 84.0%
• BYU - 45.4%
• Utah - 23.7%
• Cincinnati - 3.7%
• ASU - 1.5%

Utah's CFP chances increased since ACC frontrunners like Virginia and Louisville lost.