FPI Predicts BYU vs West Virginia, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

The BYU offense against Colorado | BYU Photo

After pulling off a comeback win over Colorado on Saturday night, BYU returns home for the first time in conference play. The Cougars host the West Virginia Mountaineers who is coming off a blowout loss to Utah. ESPN FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-WVU and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2025 season.

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 94.9% chance to go beat the Mountaineers at home. WVU is the easiest game remaining on BYU's schedule according to FPI.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 9.5-2.2. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game except Texas Tech per FPI.

• West Virginia - 94.9% (Up from 81.5% in the preseason)
• Arizona - 74.5% (Up from 73.1%)
• Utah - 62.8% (Down from (70.0%)
• Iowa State - 54.0% (Up from 47.1%)
• Texas Tech - 48.5% (Down from 55.7%)
• TCU - 69.5% (Down from 68.1%)
• Cincinnati - 64.2% (Up from 60.5%)
• UCF - 85.9% (Up from 72.7%)

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 53.0% chance to win 10 games or more - up from 47.8% last week - and a 4.5% chance to go undefeated.

6 wins or more - 99.9%
7 wins or more - 99.2%
8 wins or more - 94.8%
9 wins or more - 80.4%
10 wins or more - 53.0%
11 wins or more - 22.6%
12 wins (undefeated) - 4.5%

FPI Rankings

BYU maintained its spot at no. 18 in the FPI rankings after the win over Colorado. The Cougars are still the highest-ranked team in the Big 12.

• BYU - 18
• Texas Tech - 20
• Utah - 22
• TCU - 25
• Iowa State - 28
• Arizona State - 29
• Kansas - 31
• Cincinnati - 39
• Baylor - 41
• Kansas State - 44
• UCF - 49
• Arizona - 52
• Houston - 53
• Colorado - 56
• West Virginia - 82
• Oklahoma State - 106

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech leads the way after a convincing win over Utah. The Red Raiders also have a favorable conference slate the rest of the way. BYU is second in line behind the Red Raiders. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 31.2%
• BYU - 25.7%
• Iowa State - 11.3%
• Arizona State - 11.1%
• Utah - 7.1%
• TCU - 4.7%
• Cincinnati - 3.3%
• Kansas - 1.9%
• Houston - 1.7%

BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams with more than a 25% chance to win the league according to FPI, and only four teams in the league have better than a 10% chance to win the conference.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 35.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the second best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 36.1%
• BYU - 35.7%
• Iowa State - 15.5%
• Arizona State - 11.5%
• Utah - 8.8%
• TCU - 6.3%
• Cincinnati - 3.3%
• Houston - 2.0%
• Kansas - 1.9%