FPI Predicts Massive Game Between BYU and Cincinnati, Updates BYU's Conference Title Odds

BYU defensive end Nusi Taumoepeau against TCU | BYU Photo

The stakes couldn't be higher for BYU's upcoming game at Cincinnati. If the Cougars win, they will very likely make it to the Big 12 title game (assuming a win over a bad UCF team on Thanksgiving weekend) and they would stay in the hunt for an at-large College Football Playoff berth. The Cougars will take on a Cincinnati team that is still in the conference title race as well.

FPI gives BYU a 67.5% chance to beat the Bearcats in Cincinnati.

FPI also updated its projected win total for BYU and it updated BYU's conference title odds. The Cougars' conference title hopes increased with a blowout win over TCU.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.6-1.4. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game.

• Cincinnati - 67.5% (Up from 60.5%)
• UCF - 91.9% (Up from 72.7%)

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 11 or more regular season wins since that is what it will require to make the title game without help. However, it's worth noting that 10 wins could still be enough to get to Arlington if the tiebreakers fall in BYU's favor. FPI gives BYU a 62.0 chance to win 11 games to make it to Arlington without help, up from 38.6% last week.

10 wins or more - 83.9%
11 wins or more - 38.6%

If BYU beats Cincinnati, the Cougars' chances to get to 11 wins would increase to 91.9%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved three spots in the FPI rankings after a blowout win over TCU. Utah has maintained the top spot in the FPI rankings after blowing out Baylor, and Texas Tech improved a few spots at well.

BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams in the top 25 of FPI and all three are in the top 15. Cincinnati fell all the way to 42nd in FPI after losing to Arizona.

• Utah - 7
• Texas Tech - 8
• BYU - 14
• Arizona - 36
• Iowa State - 47
• TCU - 40
• Cincinnati - 42
• Kansas State - 43
• Arizona State - 45
• Kansas - 49
• Baylor - 52
• Houston - 55
• UCF - 61
• Colorado - 69
• West Virginia - 72
• Oklahoma State - 120

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech is still the front-runner according to FPI, as they should be. The Cougars are still second behind Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders are looking like runaway favorites. There are only four teams remaining with at least a 1% chance to win the Big 12 title.

• Texas Tech - 69.6%
• BYU - 23.6%
• Utah - 5.2%
• Arizona State - 1.2%

FPI believes there is an 93.2% chance that either BYU or Texas Tech will win the league.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 36.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI - that is down from 45.4% last week. Why did BYU's odds decrease after a blowout win? BYU got very little help from the teams around them in the rankings. It's looking more and more likely that BYU will need to win the Big 12 to get in.

BYU has the third best odds in the conference to make it to the CFP. If the Big 12 is going to get two teams into the playoffs, it will need Oklahoma, Notre Dame, or Oregon to lose another game. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 90.8%
• Utah - 38.5%
• BYU - 36.7%
• ASU - 1.2%