FPI Updates BYU's Projected Win Total After Win Over Stanford

BYU defensive Keanu Tanuvasa gets a sack against Stanford | BYU Photo

After a convincing win over Stanford, BYU will stay at home for a week before traveling to take on ECU. ESPN FPI updated BYU's projected win total for the 2025 season after week two of college football action.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 8.7-3.3. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game, although four games would be considered "toss-ups".

• East Carolina - 79.9% (Up from 79.0% in the preseason)
• Colorado - 71.0% (Up from 61.9%)
• West Virginia - 88.6% (Up from 81.5%)
• Arizona - 65.1% (Down from 73.1%)
• Utah - 53.9% (Down from (70.0%)
• Iowa State - 50.2% (Up from 47.1%)
• Texas Tech - 54.3% (Down from 55.7%)
• TCU - 58.7% (Down from 68.1%)
• Cincinnati - 69.2% (Up from 60.5%)
• UCF - 80.8% (Up from 72.7%)

BYU's outlook for both the TCU game and the Utah game were downgraded after both of those teams looked good.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 30.2% chance to win 10 games or more and a 1.6% chance to go undefeated.

5 wins or more - 99.8%
6 wins or more - 98.6%
7 wins or more - 93.6%
8 wins or more - 80.5%
9 wins or more - 57.3%
10 wins or more - 30.2%
11 wins or more - 10.1%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.6%

FPI Rankings

BYU stayed at no. 17 in the FPI rankings after the convincing win over Stanford. The Cougars are now the second highest-ranked team in the Big 12 after they were leapfrogged by archrival Utah.

• Utah - 13th nationally
• BYU - 17
• TCU - 19
• Texas Tech - 25
• Iowa State - 31
• Kansas - 33
• Baylor - 35
• Arizona State - 37
• Arizona - 44
• Kansas State - 46
• UCF - 48
• Colorado - 54
• Houston - 55
• Cincinnati - 56
• West Virginia - 66
• Oklahoma State - 90

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, former Mountain West rivals BYU, Utah, and TCU lead the Big 12 according to FPI. Utah has quickly risen up the FPI rankings after a pair of blowout wins. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• Utah - 21.0%
• TCU - 20.0%
• BYU - 17.9%
• Iowa State - 9.4%
• Texas Tech - 9.1%
• Kansas - 6.3%
• Baylor - 5.8%
• Arizona State - 3.7%
• Arizona - 2.5%
• UCF - 1.3%

BYU, Utah, and TCU are the only three teams with more than a 10% chance to win the league according to FPI.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 23.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the third best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Utah - 27.2%
• TCU - 25.2%
• BYU - 23.2%
• Iowa State - 13.4%
• Texas Tech - 11.9%
• Kansas - 6.5%
• Baylor - 5.8%
• Arizona State - 3.5%
• Arizona - 2.7%
• UCF - 2.1%
• Houston - 1.2%