How Common Are Sophomore Slumps? What the Data Means for BYU’s Bear Bachmeier

For the first time since 2022, BYU is returning the primary starting quarterback from the previous season. In 2025, BYU found a star in true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier. Bachmeier accounted for 3,560 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, all while leading the Cougars to the Big 12 Championship game.

Bachmeier set the bar very high for himself. In 2026, either he will improve on his 2025 productivity, maintain his 2025 productivity, or he will experience a sophomore slump. In this article, we will examine the 'sophomore slump', how common they are, and what it means for the BYU quarterback.

Sophomore slumps certainly exist. In fact, the last BYU quarterback to attempt more than 100 passes as a freshman was Zach Wilson in 2018. Wilson experienced a sophomore slump in 2019 before his breakout junior season in 2020. In the offseason between the 2018 and 2019 seasons, Wilson underwent a shoulder surgery that limited his ability to throw. It wasn't until a week or two before the season opener that Wilson was allowed to throw without a pitch count. Wilson went from 8.7 yards per attempt in 2018 to 7.5 yards per attempt in 2019.

We will look around college football and measure quarterbacks and whether they got better, stayed the same, or got worse in terms of yards per attempt. Most of these quarterbacks didn't throw as many passes as freshmen that they did as sophomores, or vice versa, so total yardage is not the best measurement of performance.

For this article, we looked at college football quarterbacks dating back to 2020. There are only 13 quarterbacks since 2020 that attempted at least 100 passes as freshmen, then attempted at least 100 passes again as sophomores.

Of the 13, 4 improved as sophomores, 4 maintained their freshmen performances, and 5 of them regressed. According to the data, albeit a small sample size, it's more likely that a standout freshman either maintains his performance or improves his performance (62%) instead of suffering a decline in productivity (38%).

Data of freshmen quarterbacks and how they progressed as sophomores | BYU On SI

While second-year backslides occur less than half the time, 38% is still a little too high for BYU fans to feel confident that Bear Bachmeier won't experience the same fate in 2026.

There have been a few sophomore regressions from players in the national spotlight. Those regressions have accelerated the narrative around sophomore slumps and how prevalent they are.

DJ Uiagalelei became the poster child of the sophomore slump in 2021. After looking like the heir apparent to Trevor Lawrence at Clemson in 2020, Uiagalelei's efficiency took a dramatic hit in 2021. Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Tyner Van Dyke (Miami), and Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee, UCLA) also experienced sophomore slumps.

When you take a closer look and the five players that experienced second-year regressions, they have a few things in common. First, four out of five played under new coordinators in their second seasons. The new offensive schemes were clearly not as conducive to their success as the schemes the played in as sophomores.

The only slumping player that played under the same offensive coordinator in his second season was DJ Uiagalelei. However, Uiagalelei was not the full-time starter for Clemson in 2020. Uigalelei was the backup to Trevor Lawrence 2020. When he got his opporunities as a true freshman, he produced at a very high level, most notably in an instant classic on the road at Notre Dame. Uigalelei was a sophomore when he became the full-time starter, and he was never able to replicate his freshman production.

What it Means for BYU QB Bear Bachmeier

This is good news for BYU and sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier. The fact that Bachmeier will be under the direction of Aaron Roderick once again in 2026 significantly reduces his chances of a sophomore slump. Bachmeier can spend the offseason mastering the scheme he played in last year instead of learning a new one.

Another thing that should help Bachmeier was his progression from Fall Camp to midseason to the bowl game. By the time BYU kicked off the Pop Tart's Bowl against Georgia Tech, Bachmeier was an entirely different quarterback than the one the media watched in Fall Camp.

Bachmeier's progression continued into Spring Camp. While the media didn't have as many opportunities to see the team as prior camps, Bachmeier showed very well in the limited media availability sessions.

Ine one practice near the end of camp, Bachmeier led the offense for two efficient drives that ended in scores. The final drive ended with a long touchdown pass from Bachmeier to Tei Nacua. Bachmeier was faced with a third-and-long. He stepped up into the pocket and delivered a perfect ball to Nacua for the score.

Play of the day on Monday evening was a long touchdown pass from Bear Bachmeier to Tei Nacua.

Nacua bobbled it a bit but was called a touchdown. pic.twitter.com/IpS3wpQapz
— Casey Lundquist (@casey_lundquist) March 24, 2026

Last but not least, Aaron Roderick's track record of quarterback development reduces Bachmeier's chances of a sophomore slump. Every quarterback that has played multiple years at BYU has progressed.

Zach Wilson went from three-star prospect to first round pick under Roderick's direction. Jaren Hall was effective from the moment he took over as BYU's starting quarterback. Jake Retzlaff was perhaps the most impressive development project of Roderick. Retzlaff came from the JUCO ranks and, frankly, was not ready for Power Four football when he arrived in 2023. By the time 2024 came around, Retzlaff was a much better quarterback. Retzlaff led the Cougars to 11 wins that season.

Nothing is guaranteed in college football, and Bachmeier is not immuned from regression. Like we said earlier, Bachmeier set the bar very high for himself in 2025. With that being said, the data suggests sustained production or improved production is more likely than regression.

If Bachmeier can build on his 2025 performance and get better in 2026, the Cougars will be well positioned to win a lot of football games.

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