Preview and Prediction: Can BYU Pull Off The Upset at Home Over Utah?

BYU offensive line against Utah | BYU Photo

We are just one day away from the most anticipated Holy War in a generation. BYU and Utah face off for the first time as ranked opponents since 2009. The stage is set. Big Noon Kickoff is enroute and the nation is watching. Let’s predict a winner.

When Utah has the ball

Oct 11, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes offensive lineman Spencer Fano (55) celebrates a touchdown against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the third quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

In a rare twist of fate, the Utah offense might actually be better than their defense this season on the strength of a fantastic offensive line. The Utes rank 14th in points per drive, 8th in offensive success rate, 15th in quality drive rate. However, the Utes rank just 52nd in yards per play due to a serious lack of explosiveness. The Utes rank 132nd nationally in explosive play rate, yet they are 16th in available yards gained. How? They are the best offense in the country on third down. The Utes are converting 63.4% of 3rd/4th down attempts this season largely because their ability to run the football always puts them in third and short. The Utes only average just over five yards per play, but if you gain five yards on literally every play, that is enough pick up first downs and score points in the most soul crushing way possible. Against teams not named Texas Tech, Utah is averaging 41 points per game. Fortunately for BYU, Utah did play a team named Texas Tech.

On that day, Utah could do nothing offensively, scoring just 10 points and averaging 3.8 yards per play. What made Texas Tech so effective? They got off the field on third down. The Red Raiders have been the only team on Utah’s schedule to hold the Utes to under 60% on third down by doing two things: win the early downs and make QB Devon Dampier play from the pocket. On that day, Devon Dampier was asked to throw a season high 38 times for an average of 4.3 yards per attempt. That is not a winning formula for a Utah team built to run the football behind two future first round offensive tackles. Time will tell if BYU is able to do that. BYU’s been solid against the run this year (28th in success rate per rush) but this Utah offensive line is an entirely different animal.

In summary, playing Utah is like playing a triple option offense with an NFL offensive line. They will move the ball at four yards a clip behind a four- headed monster in the backfield in Devon Dampier, Wayshawn Parker, Naquari Rogers, and Daniel Bray who are often on the field at the same time. They will occasionally break a big play or two, but more often than not, defending Utah requires herculean lane discipline for three straight plays on every set of downs.

When BYU has the ball

BYU RB LJ Martin against Arizona | BYU Photo

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but Utah is really good on defense this year. The Utes rank 9th in defensive efficiency, 16th in points per drive, and 8th in pass efficiency defense. The Utes have given up 10 points per game against everyone not named Texas Tech. In those games, however, Utah played quarterbacks ranked 77th and 127th. West Virginia QB Khalil Wilkins and ASU QB Jeff Sims don’t have enough passes to qualify but would rank outside the top 200. Either way, the only competent quarterbacks Utah has faced this season were Texas Techs Behren Morton and Will Hammond who threw for a combined 311 yards on 35 attempts. That said, it’s difficult to throw the ball with a 250 pound defensive end constantly in your face.

Utah ranks second nationally in sack rate with 1.2 sacks on every 10 drop backs. Former BYU transfer John Henry Daley has been a game-wrecker, ranking first nationally in sacks (9) and 7th in pass rush win rate. BYU is top 30 in sack rate allowed (3%) but Utah’s pass rush has always been a problem for BYU offenses over the years.

Where Utah is most vulnerable is against the run and allowing explosive plays. Excluding sacks, Utah is allowing 195.5 rush yards per game on over 5.3 yards per carry. Utah defends the run decently well down to down (28th in rushing success rate), but the Utes rank 99th nationally in explosive play rate allowed, allowing a run of 10+ yard run on 1 out of every 5 attempts. This is the most likely spot for success for BYU’s offense, who ranks 26th nationally in expected points added per rush (EPA) and 7th nationally in run blocking grade according to PFF.

Prediction

BYU vs Kansas State - Lavell Edwards Stadium | BYU Photo

BYU hasn’t scored 30 points on a Utah defense since 2006, and until they do, we cannot in good conscience predict that BYU will keep pace if this game becomes a shootout. Fortunately for BYU, that is not how these games tend to go. Over the last 14 Holy Wars, both teams were held for 30 points or less 10 times. In the other four games, Utah scored a combined 80 points off BYU turnovers. Given both teams' propensity for running the football and barring disaster, this game will look like yet another defensive slugfest. To ensure that, BYU will need to emulate Texas Tech's success against the run.

BYU doesn’t have the athletes along the defensive line that Texas Tech does, but BYU does have four players in the top third of the Big 12's highest-graded defensive lineman against the run on PFF. Past Utah foes Arizona State and West Virginia have three combined. As for linebackers, BYU probably has the best group Utah has played this season in Isaiah Glasker, Jack Kelly, and Siale Esera. BYU has the bodies to play man coverage in the secondary on Utah’s receivers, which will allow BYU’s linebackers to be devoted full-time run support. Many teams have tried to spy Devon Dampier this season, but those defenses didn’t have Isaiah Glasker. BYU ranks 9th nationally in explosive play rate allowed and will therefore be able to keep Utah’s offense in front of them. BYU ranks 10th nationally in 3rd/4th down success rate allowed, which bodes well for getting Utah’s offense off the field.

Utah’s defense is formidable as always, but BYU’s offense is much closer in quality to Texas Tech than any other team Utah has faced. BYU ranks 3rd nationally in quality drive rate and therefore should be able to match Utah in churning yards on the ground. If BYU can run the football effectively and protect Bear Bachmeier from a ferocious Utah pass rush, BYU will have a shot. From a clean pocket, Bear Bachmeier ranks 21st in yards per attempt and 8th in yards per attempt off play action. If that holds true, you have to like BYU’s advantage at quarterback.

These teams are almost identical in terms of both style and statistics. As such, we give the advantage to the home team. Lavell Edwards Stadium will be as raucous as any stadium in college football on Saturday, and while this is Bear Bachmeier’s first holy War, it is also Devon Dampier’s. BYU’s crowd fuels BYU’s defense to their best performance of the year. Jay Hill cooks up something special as they hold Utah’s ground attack to under 4.0 yards per carry and force Devon Dampier to make big-time throws to beat BYU’s top ten secondary downfield. In the end, it’s the BYU freshman QB that cements himself into Holy War lore as he leads a fourth quarter drive to give BYU the lead for good.

BYU 24-21 Utah