Preview and Prediction for BYU at No. 7 Texas

BYU is 5-2 and coming off a win over Texas Tech. The Cougars will travel to Texas to take on the Texas Longhorns. Texas, who is ranked no. 7, is 6-1 and coming off a win over Houston. Today, we'll preview BYU-Texas and predict the final score.

Game Information

BYU and Texas have played each other five times. The Cougars are 4-1 all time against the Longhorns. BYU and Texas first played each other in a home-and-home series in 1987-1988. BYU won the first game in Austin 22-17. The following year, BYU beat Texas in dominant fashion in Provo 47-6. The two teams didn't play each other for more than 20 years until BYU traveled to take on the Longhorns in Austin in 2011. That was BYU's lone loss to Texas, a narrow 17-16 loss.

A few years later, BYU famously dominated Texas at home 40-21 in 2013. One year later, Taysom Hill led BYU into Austin and dominated Texas once again 41-7. That was the last time these two teams met.

BYU and Texas will face off on ABC on Saturday afternoon. The game will kick off at 2:30 PM local time.

Texas Quarterback Situation

On Thursday, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian announced that backup Maalik Murphy will start for the Longhorns at quarterback against BYU. Starter Quinn Ewers left the game against Houston with a shoulder injury.

In four games played this season, Murphy is 4/8 for 47 yards passing. Those eight pass attempts are the only pass attempts of his collegiate career. Like most players on the Texas roster, Murphy was a coveted recruit coming out of high school. Murphy was a four-star recruit and he picked the Longhorns over competing offers from the biggest schools in the country like Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia, Florida State and many others.

Keys to the Game

Win the Turnover Battle

The turnover margin has determined most of BYU's games this season. In five wins, BYU is +12 in turnover margin. In two losses, BYU is -3 in turnover margin. At the time of this article, BYU is a 20-point underdog to Texas. If BYU is going to shock the world and pull off the upset, they have to win the turnover battle first and foremost. Fortunately for BYU fans, this is an area where BYU has excelled this season. BYU ranks third nationally in turnover margin. In two games against backup quarterbacks this season, the BYU defense has forced seven turnovers.

Even though there haven't been many, the turnovers that BYU has lost this season have been catastrophic. In three road games against Power Five opponents, BYU has given up three defensive touchdowns and one special teams touchdown. Needless to say, BYU can't spot Texas any points in this game.

On offense, BYU has struggled to march the full length of the field to score points. The Cougars rank 122nd nationally in total offense. Giving BYU's offense a few short fields by creating turnovers would significantly increase the odds of an upset.

Protect the Paint

The basketball season tipped off this week so allow us to use a basketball analogy. On defense, BYU has to protect the paint against Texas. Meaning BYU has to take away the easy layups for Maalik Murphy. Texas is going to simplify the offense for Murphy and give him easy throws - think screens, slants, and quick outs. BYU has to take away the simple throws and force Murphy to beat them over the top.

TCU gashed BYU through the air with backup quarterback Josh Hoover. In that game, most of Hoover's passes were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. BYU failed to prevent the layups, so Hoover took the easy throws that BYU gave him.

Murphy has a cannon for an arm and he certainly has the potential to beat BYU over the top. But consistently completing long throws is a challenge for even the top college quarterbacks, let alone a redshirt freshman with eight career pass attempts. BYU has to force Murphy into challenging throws.

If BYU takes away the short throws and forces some longer-developing plays, they can blitz Murphy and try to force a few mistakes.

Test the Texas Secondary Early and Often

The Texas secondary is dealing with a handful of injuries. As a result, the Longhorns struggled to contain Houston's passing attack last week. BYU's passing attack, despite the troubles of the last few weeks, has been the most consistent part of the BYU offense. BYU must exploit the Texas secondary to win this game.

A few things need to happen for BYU's passing attack to have consistent success. First, Kedon Slovis has to play his best game of the season. He doesn't have to be perfect, but he can't make critical mistakes like he did against TCU and Kansas. Slovis has to strike the delicate balance of protecting the football and being aggressive downfield.

Second, the BYU offensive line has to give Slovis time to throw. That is much easier said than done - the Texas defensive line is arguably the best defensive line in the Big 12. If Slovis is consistently under pressure, it will be a long day for the Cougars. Having Aidan Robbins back in the lineup will help BYU's pass protection. LJ Martin has been great in so many ways, especially for a true freshman, but he's struggled at times in pass protection.

Third, BYU's wide receivers have to beat press man coverage. When BYU has struggled to move the ball this season, the BYU wide receivers have struggled to get open. In the TCU game, for example, Slovis had no choice but to throw the ball away multiple times because nobody was open.

Score Prediction

If you had to write the blueprint for a college football upset, it would probably look something like this:

Win the turnover margin
Take advantage of scoring opportunities
Overcome the talent disadvantage with disciplined, fundamental football

If you had to describe the play style of the 2023 BYU football team, it would probably look similar to the blueprint for a college football upset. BYU doesn't have to play outside of themselves to win this game. The blueprint is already baked into BYU's culture this year. They have to play the way they've played in games against Arkansas and Texas Tech.

Can they do it on the road in Austin? It's going to be tough. Ultimately, I think BYU covers the spread in a loss to Texas.

BYU 20 | Texas 34

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