Cougs Daily

Rankings Update: BYU's Win Over Utah Has BYU Football Looking Like a Top 6 Team

Joe Wheat|
BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston against Utah
BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston against Utah | BYU Photo

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BYU Cougars

We set the stage last week, and BYU delivered. BYU beat a top 15 power-rated team in Utah. Yet you may have been surprised to learn that BYU still found itself rated lower than the Utes in rankings like FPI. How is that possible? Let's dig into the numbers to find how that is actually to BYU’s benefit.

How the AP Voters view BYU

BYU finally got its first signature win of the season over then no. 23 Utah. BYU was rewarded with a four-spot bump in the rankings after losses by no. 7 Texas Tech, no. 11 Tennessee, and no. 10 LSU. BYU rose as high as 5th in one ballot to as low as 18th in 2 ballots. BYU's most popular ranking was actually 10th on 13 of the pollsters' ballots. For the first time all season, BYU was ranked by all 66 members of the AP voting block.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 20

FPI: 19

KFord: 20

FEI: 21

Average: 20.25 (Prior week: 22.75)

The logic is simple: beat good teams and your metrics will improve. BYU reached its highest composite ranking of the season following the win over Utah with an average ranking of 20.25 and an average rating of 15.75 points better than the average team. If this feels low, it’s important to remember that a power rating is not a resume ranking. Based on the advanced analytics, talent rankings, and prior season performance, BYU is viewed as the 20th strongest team in the country on average. Why so low? Because BYU does not blow teams out and they don’t have a high talent composite.

The only real way to rise in the power ratings is to far exceed expectations against your opponents. For example, SP+ projected 20.4-20 score in the Holy War and BYU won by 3. BYU underperformed expectations against Colorado, West Virginia, and Arizona in terms of point margin. As a result, BYU’s rating is roughly the same as it was a month ago. Does this matter? It shouldn’t, because BYU’s ranking should be based on what has happened rather than what the analytics project would happen. Similar to the NET rating in college basketball, predictive analytics should only be used to measure the strength of a team's wins rather than be used to measure the team itself. Using predictive metrics, we will see that BYU’s resume is much better than the national perception.  

What do the resume-based metrics say?

Definition: Resume based metrics compare the teams performance to how the average top 10 team would have performed against the same schedule. They measure not only strength of schedule, but how a team performs against that schedule.

SP+: 8

FPI (SOR): 5

KFord: 6

FEI: 4

Average: 5.75 (Prior: 10)

As expected, a win over Utah, who was and is a top 15 power-rated team, gave a massive boost to BYU’s resume. BYU is a top six team based on what they have accomplished this season against their schedule. If the season ended today, BYU should be a playoff team, hard stop. However, the season does not end today and BYU’s toughest games still lie ahead on the road against Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati.

Conclusion

When you see graphics online showing BYU’s FPI or Strength of Record, it’s important to know what they mean. Predictive metrics should only be used to value the strength of BYU’s opponents, especially when the AP Poll is littered with bias. Regardless of what the polls say, BYU now has a top 15 win and a top 5 matchup looming in 3 weeks. Those power ratings then inform the resume ratings to inform the strength of what happened on the field. While BYU should be playing like a top 20 team, what BYU has accomplished is more befitting of a top 10 team.

Once again, BYU’s AP ranking seems to be a rough average of their predictive and resume metrics, but as we get deeper into the season, pollsters and the committee should begin to rank teams based on what has happened rather than what the metrics say should happen. It’s a tricky dance, but BYU should be fine either way. The predictive metrics favor BYU in four of their five remaining games. Win the games you are expected to win, and BYU will have the strength of record to be on the right side of the committees' rankings this season.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.

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