Rankings Update: BYU Surges up the Metrics Following 41-point Explosion at Iowa State

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Iowa State
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Iowa State | BYU Photo

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It looked dicey for a second, but BYU did it again. The Cougs advanced to 8-0 following a eye-catching road win against a top 35 team nationally. The win validated everything BYU has accomplished to this point and the national media and metrics are beginning to take notice. Here is where BYU sits among the rankings heading into the bye week.

How the AP Voters view BYU

The voters were impressed by BYU’s gutsy win on the road at Iowa State - BYU moved up a spot into a tie for 10th with Miami despite no teams ahead of them losing. The Cougs were ranked as high as 5th by 4 voters and as low as 14 by one voter. The most popular rank was 11th, but BYU moved up as voters that were hesitant to elevate BYU had no choice but to move them up following their 8th straight win to start the year. Perhaps the most important development was that BYU now has a ranked win on their resume as Utah moved back into the rankings at #23. BYU has two more ranked opponents on the schedule including #13 Texas Tech and #17 Cincinnati.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 19

FPI: 16

KFord: 18

FEI: 18

Average: 17.75 (Prior week: 20.25)

We have good news and bad news. The bad news is BYU’s defense dropped about 5 spots to 16th in average efficiency between the 4 metrics following a brutal first half in Ames. The good news is that BYU’s team strength is still improving as the offense’s efficiency has trended up every single week of the season, ranking 23rd nationally on average compared to 54th following week 3. At this point, BYU is the epitome of a well-balanced football team, ranking 23rd in offense, 23rd in defense, and 24th in special teams per FEI. That is exactly what you are looking for if you are a head coach. The other ratings still view BYU’s defense as the better of the two units, but that gap is closing rapidly with every positive step Bear Bachmeier and the offense takes.

BYU’s average rating is up to 16.9 points better than the average team compared to 15.8 a week ago and from around 20th nationally to 18th. Why do these metrics trail behind BYU's AP ranking? BYU seems to like playing teams close. Teams like Utah and Texas Tech currently rank in the top 10 in most power ratings despite their losses because they blow out teams that they are better than. BYU has not. That shouldn't matter too much for BYU as they should be judged by their resume rather than their power rating, but it’s still an encouraging sign that BYU is continuing to trend up as the season progresses.

What do the resume-based metrics say?

Definition: Resume based metrics compare the teams performance to how the average top 10 team would have performed against the same schedule. They measure not only strength of schedule, but how a team performs against that schedule.

SP+: 5

FPI (SOR): 6

KFord: 3

FEI: 6

Average: 5 (Prior: 5.75)

Assuming the committee's resume ranking works similar to the ones listed here, BYU should find themselves positioned very well when the committee's first rankings come out next week. BYU has an average of a top five resume in the sport thanks to an undefeated record against a top 50 strength of schedule. That strength of schedule will only get tougher as BYU has the 24th toughest remaining strength of schedule in the country. If BYU can manage a 3-1 record over the remaining 4 games as they are favored to do, BYU should not only find themselves in the Big 12 title game, but more than likely in position to receive an at-large playoff bid.

Conclusion

BYU just keeps winning. Sometimes their methods break the models, but it also does not matter so long as BYU ends up with more points than their opponents. Is it sustainable? We think so. So far, BYU’s resume is far better than their power rating because they are winning with a scalpel rather than with a hammer. That said, BYU’s power rating keeps improving because the offense just keeps getting better every week. If the defense can get healthy during the bye week, we think that their performance vs. Iowa State was more of an anomaly. If LJ Martin doesn’t miss time and Bear Bachmeier continues to trend up, BYU’s best football could still be ahead of them.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.