Score Prediction for No. 11 BYU at Iowa State

Last season, BYU was 7-0 heading into a road game against UCF. Even though the Cougars were undefeated, they entered the game as a slight underdog. BYU took care of business in that game in a 37-24 win.

Fast forward to 2025 and BYU finds itself in the same situation. BYU is 7-0 and heading to Ames for a road game at Iowa State. BYU is a 2.5-point underdog despite the perfect record. The Cougars are looking to get the same result as last season and head into the bye week undefeated.

Iowa State is on a two-game losing streak after starting the season 5-0. The Cyclones had an extra week to prepare for this one, and they are tough to beat in Ames. Iowa State has won 9 of its last 10 home games.

This game is going to come down to BYU's ability to run. The Cougars have been one of the most prolific rushing teams in the country, ranking 10th nationally at 233 rushing yards per game. BYU star running back LJ Martin ranks fifth nationally in rushing yards and second among Power Four running backs.

Fortunately for BYU fans, Iowa State has really struggled to stop the run over the last few games. The Cyclones allowed 260 rushing yards against Cincinnati and they allowed 140 rushing yards against Colorado. To make matters worse, Iowa State's best run defender is listed as "questionable" for this game after suffering an injury against Colorado.

We expect BYU to move the football on the ground. And once the rushing attack is established, that will open up play action opportunities for BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier. Bachmeier has been one of the best passers in the country on play action. He averages 12.3 yards per attempt which ranks 6th nationally. This could be the breakout game that the BYU offense has been waiting for.

On defense, the Cougars will try to slow down veteran quarterback Rocco Becht. Now that Becht's star wide receivers have left for the NFL, he prefers to throw to his tight ends. That's a good matchup for BYU who has lengthy defenders like Isaiah Glasker and Faletau Satuala to matchup against tight ends.

Iowa State will come out with its hair on fire in this one in front of a sellout crowd, but we expect BYU to weather the storm and take over in the second half. BYU's physical rushing attack will be too much for the Cyclones in the second half, and Iowa State's greatest weakness will cost them again - redzone offense. BYU takes better advantage of its scoring opportunities to improve to 8-0.

BYU 31 | Iowa State 23

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