Score Prediction for No. 12 BYU vs TCU

Oct 14, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Trey Sanders (2) is gang tackled by the Brigham Young Cougars defense during the game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

On Saturday, no. 12 BYU will host TCU in a massively important game in the Big 12 race. The Cougars, who haven't played in front of their home crowd in a month, are three games away from the Big 12 title game. If BYU wins out, they will earn a spot in the Big 12 title game. First on the schedule is TCU. The Horned Frogs come into this game on a five-game winning streak over the Cougars. BYU last beat TCU in 2007 when the two programs were in the Mountain West.

While BYU has everything to play for, the same can't be said for TCU. The Horned Frogs were eliminated from the Big 12 title race last week after losing to the Iowa State Cyclones. Now, TCU is looking to play spoiler on BYU's season.

These two teams first faced off as Big 12 foes in 2023. Now TCU veteran quarterback Josh Hoover made his first career start and torched the BYU defense, throwing for 439 passing yards. The BYU defense is looking for a different result this time around. To do that, BYU will need to get pressure on Josh Hoover. TCU star wide receiver Eric McCalister will present challenges for the BYU secondary. If Hoover is throwing from clean pockets, McCalister will get open and he will make big plays.

It's BYU that brings the young quarterback into this matchup. Bear Bachmeier is looking to bounce back from the worst outing of his young career. For the first time this season, Bachmeier looked like a true freshman against Texas Tech. Fortunately for Bachmeier and the BYU offense, the TCU defense isn't nearly as formidable as the Texas Tech defense.

Most importantly, BYU is looking to re-establish its rushing attack. Prior to LJ Martin's injury against Iowa State, BYU had one of the best rushing attacks in the country. In the seven quarters since Martin's injury, however, BYU hasn't been able to consistently move the ball on the ground.

We believe the difference in this game is going to be a few Josh Hoover turnovers. For as good as Hover can be, he has put the ball at risk far too often this season. He ranks 116th in turnover-worthy play rate. The TCU run game is one of the worst in the Big 12, so Hoover will have to move the chains through the air. That will give the BYU defense chances to take the ball away, and that's something they have been good at doing this season.

Josh Hoover throws two interceptions and BYU scores a late touchdown to put the game out of reach.

BYU 31 | TCU 20