Statistical Matchups That Give No. 10 BYU an Edge Against Baylor

On Saturday, no. 10 BYU will be playing for its playoff life when it hosts Baylor. The Bears may be the hottest team in the Big 12. Baylor has outscored its opponents 83-40 since firing Dave Aranda. Baylor plays BYU, Houston, and Texas Tech to end the regular season and they only have two conference losses, so they are still in contention for the Big 12 title.

What can BYU do to slow down a Baylor offense that has scored more than 40 points in each of the last two games? Let's dive into the statistical matchups that favor BYU going into this game.

1. BYU's defense will force Baylor to march the length of the field

Baylor's offense has been one of the streakiest offenses in college football. The Bears are much higher in points per drive (66th) than they are in success rate (114th) and explosive play rate (91st). Baylor, and specifically quarterback DJ Lagway, has been a boom-or-bust offense. They struggle to stay ahead of the chains, but their successful plays are often explosive.

DJ Lagway is one of the most aggressive quarterbacks in college football. His average depth of target when under pressure is 15.7 yards. The data suggests Lagway will take multiple deep shots in this game.

BYU's strength on defense has been preventing explosive pass plays. BYU's defense ranks second nationally in explosive pass rate allowed. Said differently, the BYU defense will force the Baylor offense to methodically drive down the field, and that's something Baylor has struggled to do this season.

Advanced stats preview of the BYU defense against the Baylor offense | BYU On SI

2. Baylor hasn't faced an offense as efficient as BYU's offense

Baylor's defense has been elite this season. The Bears rank 3rd in havoc rate, 15th in points per drive allowed, 15th in yards per play allowed, 12th in red zone touchdown defense, and 19th in success rate allowed.

BYU's offense will have its hands full on Saturday, especially if the rain in the forecast comes to fruition. However, BYU's offense will be the biggest test Baylor's defense has faced. That doesn't mean the Bears won't continue to be elite, but it does make them relatively unproven even though the regular season is nearly complete.

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BYU's offense ranks 33rd in points per drive. The best power four offense Baylor has faced this season is Iowa State who ranks 69th in points per drive. Every other P4 offense that Baylor has faced is ranked 82nd or worse in points scored per drive.

An image with four advanced metrics and how Baylor's former opponents compare to the BYU offense — The effectiveness of the offenses Baylor has faced this season | BYU On SI

BYU is ranked 26th in yards per play. Baylor has only played two other offenses (Iowa State and Kansas) inside the top 50. Every other P4 team they have faced is ranked 102nd or worse in yards per play. In terms of success rate, BYU's offense ranks 36th. BYU will be the first P4 offense that Baylor has faced that is ranked better than 89th nationally.

A few weeks ago, we came up with a strength of schedule metric that focuses just on one side of the ball. If you combine the strength of the offenses that Baylor has faced this season, they rank 128th out of 138 FBS teams.

BYU's offense will test Baylor in a way it hasn't been tested this season.

3. Baylor's defense thrives on havoc, and BYU's offense prevents havoc

Baylor's defense creates more havoc than almost any team in college football. The Bears rank 3rd in havoc rate, so approximately 1 in 5 plays ends in a TFL, sack, interception, or PBU.

BYU's offense, meanwhile, has been one of the best at avoiding those havoc plays. BYU allows havoc 9.4% of the time, good enough for 7th nationally.

BYU's ability to avoid disruptive plays will give them a better chance to stay ahead of the chains. Baylor is good, not great, at getting off the field. They rank 27th in third and fourth down conversions allowed. BYU is one of the better offenses in college football at converting short third downs, BYU ranks 18th in third down conversion rate on short downs.

If the Cougars get into manageable third downs, they will outperform the offenses that have faced Baylor already this season.

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