Three Reasons BYU Will Contend for Big 12 Championship, Three Reasons They Won't

There are mixed reviews of the BYU football program heading into the 2025 season. Coming off a dominant win in the Alamo Bowl to cap off an 11-2 season, BYU was getting a lot of national hype throughout the offseason. ESPN even put BYU in their way-too-early top 10. Then, BYU's quarterback situation was flipped upside down when returning starter Jake Retzlaff was named in a civil lawsuit alleging sexual assault. While Retzlaff denied the allegations of sexual assault, he did admit to breaking the school's honor code.

Instead of serving a suspension, reported to be seven games, Retzlaff opted to withdraw from BYU and finish his college career elsewhere. Now, BYU will have a three-man quarterback competition to determine the starter for the 2025 season.

Due to the uncertainty at quarterback, some national outlets have written off the Cougars and their Big 12 title hopes. Other analysts have maintained that BYU is still a Big 12 contender.

In this article, we will break down three reasons why BYU can still compete for a Big 12 championship and three reasons

Three Reasons BYU Will Contend for a Big 12 Title

1. Jay Hill: A Defensive Mastermind

When BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill took over the job at BYU, he was taking over a defense that was one of the worst nationally in 2022. BYU was talent deficient at most positions at defense, but especially in the trenches.

The 2023 season came with ups and downs. The 2024 season was a massive improvement - Hill led the top defense in the conference and BYU led the country in interceptions.

Heading into 2025, Jay Hill has more talent to work with than ever before. While BYU lacks some experience, the Cougars are deep and talented and almost every position on defense. BYU led the conference in total defense last year without a consistent pass rush. Now, BYU has a long list of edge rushers ready to get after the quarterback. Paired with two experienced interior defensive linemen in Keanu Tanuvasa and Justin Kirkland, the BYU defense has a chance to be even better than they were in 2024.

If BYU's defense takes another step forward, the Cougars will contend for a Big 12 championship regardless of the uncertainty at quarterback.

2. Replaceable Production

We recently did a deep dive into the past production of Jake Retzlaff, McCae Hillstead, and Treyson Bourguet. If you haven't taken the time to read that article, we highly recommend it. That article illustrates which aspects of Retzlaff's game will be easier to replace than others.

Jake Retzlaff did a lot of things well. When he was on, he was really good. He also had his deficiencies. At the end of the day, he threw for 226 yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 0.9 interceptions per game. He also ran for 32 yards per game.

On paper, that is production that BYU can replace with one of the three quarterbacks that will compete for the job.

To be clear, we expect a drop-off between what we think Jake Retzlaff would have been able to accomplish in 2025 and what we project the new quarterback to be. However, BYU won 11 games last year with a quarterback that didn't put up crazy numbers, and was tied for the most interceptions in the league. If they have already competed for a title in those circumstances, why couldn't they do it again?

3. A Favorable Schedule

On paper, BYU's schedule looks like one of the more favorable schedules in the conference. BYU doesn't have to play Kansas State, Baylor, or Arizona State. All three of those teams are expected to contend for the conference title.

BYU also gets Utah and TCU and home. While they do have to travel to Iowa State and Texas Tech, the rest of the schedule is pretty favorable.

BYU's schedule is particularly light in September. That could give the new quarterback a chance to get up to speed while he gets more live reps under his belt. While other contenders face off and knock themselves out of contention, perhaps BYU could ride a weaker schedule into the Big 12 title game.

Three Reasons BYU Won't Contend for a Big 12 Title

1. The Big 12 is loaded at QB

Top to bottom, the Big 12 might have the best collective group of quarterbacks in the country. In a sport where quarterback play is the most important ingredient to success, can BYU compete for a championship with major question marks at that position?

It seems like an uphill battle for BYU to contend for a Big 12 championship without a proven quarterback. So many other teams in the conference will have high-level quarterback play. That is a lot to overcome.

2. The Big 12 Will be Better Than it Was a Season Ago

Related to our last point, the Big 12 will be better than it was in 2024. The league has invested a lot of resources into football and it shows. Texas Tech will be loaded with talent, Arizona State returns nearly every starter from a season ago, and teams like Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU Baylor, and Utah will have experienced signal callers leading the way.

Because of the quarterbacks, we believe there are a few teams capable of going 8-1 in conference play. In that scenario, BYU would need to go 8-1 to be in the Big 12 title race. History suggests a 7-2 conference record is enough to keep you in the title conversation. This year, however, it might not be enough.

Could BYU go 8-1 and compete for a championship in that scenario? 7-2 in conference play feels like the ceiling for this BYU team given the quarterback situation. One of the three quarterbacks would need to play at a very high level to have the chance to win eight conference games.

3. Midseason Gauntlet

While BYU has a favorable schedule on paper, especially in September, there is a four-game gauntlet that could quickly end BYU's title hopes. BYU plays Utah, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and TCU in the middle of the season. Going 2-2 in those four games will probably be the goal. If BYU finishes that stretch with a 2-2 record, BYU would have to be perfect in every other conference game to make the title game. To go a perfect 8-0 in the remaining games feels like a tall task at this point of the offseason.