What Matchup Predictors Say About No. 8 BYU vs Iowa State

A lot has changed since BYU overcame a double-digit deficit to take down Iowa State in Ames last season. Little did fans of both schools know at the time that Penn State would attempt to poach both head coaches at the end of the season.

The difference between BYU and Iowa State is that BYU managed to retain Kalani Sitake and Iowa State failed to retain Matt Campbell. The new-look Cyclones come to Provo for the first time under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers. In this article, we're looking at the matchup prediction models and what they say about BYU's chances to take down the Cyclones.

ESPN FPI

FPI gives BYU an 83.8% chance to beat Iowa State. BYU ranks 12th nationally in overall efficiency, led by the defense which ranks 19th. The offense ranks 25th nationally in offensive efficiency after a bad showing against TCU.

FPI's projected regular season win total for BYU increased to 9.2-2.8 following a gritty road win over the TCU Horned Frogs. Below are the game-by-game FPI predictions after the TCU game.

Iowa State: 83.8% (89.0% in the preseason)
Notre Dame: 23.6% (24.0% in the preseason)
UCF: 59.4% (67.7% in the preseason)
ASU: 89.6% (78.9% in the prseason)
Utah: 34.9% (58.7% in the preseason)
Baylor: 69.2% (76.4% in the preseason)
Kansas: 70.2% (71.9% in the preseason)
Cincinnati: 85.9% (82.7% in the preseason)

To have a chance at a special season where BYU wins the Big 12 and makes the College Football Playoff, the Cougars will likely need at least 10 wins in the regular season. FPI gives BYU a 40% chance to win 10 or more games in 2026. BYU could significantly increase those odds by winning at least one of the two games between Notre Dame and Utah.

SP+

SP+ is higher on BYU than FPI in this matchup. SP+ gives BYU an 85% chance to win with an expected final score of 34-17. The betting line has shrunk to 10.5 points in this game given the injury to LJ Martin.

BYU ranks 14th in SP+, led by the defense which ranks 13th nationally. The offense ranks 24th nationally. The Cougars also have a top 20 special teams unit per SP+.

Iowa State ranks 59th overall. The Cyclones are ranked 64th on offense, 48th on defense, and 27th on special teams.

FEI

FEI is as high on BYU as other metrics. However, they are not as high on BYU's chances to win this game. FEI likes Iowa State more than most models - the Cyclones are ranked 36th in FEI.

BYU has a 69.7% chance to win this game with an expected final score of 30 to 23. In other words, FEI believes Iowa State will cover the spread against BYU.

CFB Graphs

CFB graphs gives BYU a 79% chance to win with an expected final score 32-18. Most models expect BYU to score 28-35 points.

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