What the Advanced Analytics Say About BYU at Colorado

BYU safety Faletau Satuala against East Carolina | BYU Photo

On Saturday, the BYU football team will kickoff conference play against Colorado. The Cougars and the Buffaloes will rematch after BYU crushed Colorado in the Alamo Bowl. BYU opened is currently a 6.5-point favorite according to oddsmakers.

Some advanced analytics are more bullish on BYU's chances than the oddsmakers and others are not. Oddsmakers factor in intangible things like the Cougars taking their true freshman quarterback on the road for the first time in conference play. The advanced analytics remove that bias and simply project the final score based on the efficiencies of both teams so far this season.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs gives BYU a 58% chance to beat East Carolina with a projected final score of 25-21. BYU has a few statistical advantages in this game according to CFP Graphs. On the defensive end, BYU allows a "quality drive" 32% of the time. That ranks 28th in college football. On offense, Colorado generates a quality drive 33% of the time which ranks 96th nationally.

BYU has a chance to get quick stops on defense in this game. And when they do allow a quality drive, the defense is really stingy on their own side of the field. BYU ranks second nationally in points allowed per quality drive. Colorado ranks 48th nationally in points per quality drive, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Colorado's drives stall even when they put together a nice drive.

On offense, BYU's core advantage will be on the ground. The Colorado defense has allowed 265 rushing yards per game in their two games against P4 teams.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives BYU an 71.3% chance to beat Colorado with a projected final score of 29-21. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 21st team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 13 nationally and an offensive ranking of 44th nationally.

East Carolina ranks 57th nationally with an offensive ranking of 48th and a defensive rating of 65th.

BYU also has a major special teams advantage in this game per FEI. The Cougars' special teams ranks 10th nationally compared to 100th nationally for Colorado.

SP+

SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Colorado.

SP+ gives BYU a 70% chance to win with an expected final score of 30-22. FPI is the most bullish on BYU's chances. FPI gives BYU a 77% chance to win.