What the Advanced Analytics Say About Ranked Matchup Between BYU and Utah

BYU captains take the field against Utah | BYU Photo

On Saturday, the BYU football team returns home to take on archrival Utah. The Cougars are undefeated and looking to create some separation in the conference title race, while the Utes are looking to avenge last season's loss to BYU and get back into the conference title picture.

Utah, coming off two blowout wins, is the slight favorite in this game according to oddsmakers. As of Tuesday evening, Utah is a 3.5-point favorite.

Depending on the model, advanced analytics either agree or disagree with oddsmakers. Some are more bullish on BYU's chances, others are not..

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives BYU a 43.5% chance to beat Utah with a projected final score of 26-24 in favor of the Utes. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 24th team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 20 nationally and an offensive ranking of 32nd nationally.

Utah ranks 12th nationally with an offensive ranking of 13th and a defensive rating of 14th.

BYU has a special teams advantage in this game per FEI. The Cougars' special teams ranks 51st nationally compared to 92nd nationally for the Utes. It was special teams that made the difference in this game last year. BYU took a kickoff back for a touchdown and went 3/3 on field goals including the game-winner in the closing seconds.

SP+

SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Utah.

SP+ gives BYU a 49% chance to win with an expected final score of 24-24. BYU ranks 23rd in SP+, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 15th and 6th nationally, respectively. The BYU offense ranks 40th nationally.

Utah ranks 16th in SP+. The Utes are ranked 33rd on offense, 6th on defense, and 48th on special teams.

FPI is slightly more bullish on BYU's chances. FPI gives BYU a 51% chance to win.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs is not nearly as bullish on BYU as other predictive models. CFB Graphs gives BYU a 36.6% chance to beat Utah with a projected final score of 30-22.

By the numbers, quality drive rate is a metric to watch in this game. Quality drive rate is essentially the percent of drives that go into an opponents' 40 yard-line. BYU's offense ranks 3rd nationally in quality drive rate and Utah's defense ranks 21st in quality drive rate allowed.

On the other side of the ball, Utah's offense ranks 10th in quality drive rate and BYU's defense ranks 37th in quality drive rate allowed.

These offenses are as good as it gets in terms of consistently moving the chains. These defenses have also been some of the best at preventing teams from moving the football. Something has to give on Saturday.