What We Learned About BYU and the Big 12 During the Weekend Off

The Cougars had a bye this weekend, but we still learned a lot about BYU and the Big 12

BYU QB Bear Bachmeier against Arizona | BYU Photo

Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program had the weekend off. The Cougars will resume conference play next weekend on the road at TCU. Even though BYU wasn't in action, we still learned a lot about BYU and the rest of the Big 12 over the weekend.

1. BYU should be undefeated when it hosts Notre Dame

Two teams stand between BYU and a potential top-10 matchup with Notre Dame: TCU and Iowa State. The Horned Frogs lost to a mediocre UCF team on Saturday and Iowa State was overpowered by Utah at home.

If you assume BYU's FPI win probabilities for those two games are correct, there is just a 58% chance that BYU will win the next two games and go into the Notre Dame game 5-0.

If BYU is who we think they are, BYU should win the next two games. The Cougars are more talented and more experienced than both TCU and Iowa State. Winning on the road in Fort Worth has been historically difficult for BYU. History aside, BYU should win both of those games if it as good as its ranking suggests.

2. It's still early, but BYU and Utah are currently on a crash course

It's still early in the season and a lot can change between now and the Big 12 championship game. With that being said, BYU and Utah appear to be a tier above the rest of the league. Texas Tech is 4-0, sure, but anyone who has watched the Red Raiders this season can recognize they are a shell of what they were a season ago. They have regressed from an elite defense to an above average defense, and they aren't getting enough consistent production from the quarterback position.

If the season ended today and either BYU or Utah faced Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game, we would expect either team from the Beehive State to defeat the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech has a very light schedule, so they are still a threat to make the Big 12 title game. But as far as the caliber of play, BYU and Utah are playing better than the other schools in the conference right now. If both teams hold serve in conference play until November 7th when they face off in Rice Eccles Stadium, it could be a rivalry game for the ages.

3. The performances by BYU's defense are aging well

By the advanced metrics, BYU's offense has been dominant the season. The defense? Not so much. The Cougars have been good, not great, by the metrics. As the season progresses, the September showings by BYU's defense are looking better and better.

On Saturday, Colorado State put up 45 points against UTSA. Colorado State backup quarterback K'saan Farrar, who struggled to get anything going against BYU, threw for 344 yards and 2 touchdowns.

In games against opponents not named BYU, Colorado State is averaging 46 points per game. The Rams only scored seven points in three quarters until BYU pulled the starters and allowed backups to get reps in the fourth quarter. The Rams still finished with 23 points, well below their season average.

Despite multiple field goal misses from its kicker, Arizona scored 34 points on the road in a win at Washington State. The Wildcats are averaging 37 points per game against non-BYU opponents. Remember, Arizona scored 17 points against BYU and was shut out in the second half.

4. It's time to include a new team as one of the conference's top contenders

On Saturday night, Oklahoma State went on the road and beat West Virginia. The Cowboys pulled away late in that game and shut down a dangerous WVU rushing attack.

With that win, combined with a top 10 win over Oregon, it's time to include Oklahoma State as one of the conference's top contenders. Weird things happen in week one. If you chalk up the Cowboys' head-scratching loss to Tulsa in week one was one of those weird week one moments, Oklahoma State has been great in every other game.

There are three teams that avoid both BYU and Utah in conference play, and it feels like one of these three could earn a spot in Arlington: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Houston. Oklahoma State plays both Texas Tech and Houston in the regular season. Potentially, those games could determine who plays the winner of the Holy War in the Big 12 championship game.

5. BYU will probably slide down the AP poll when it comes out

We expect BYU to fall down the rankings when the AP poll comes out on Sunday. Florida dominated no. 4 Ole Miss and no. 10 LSU handled Texas A&M at home. We expect at least one, but more likely two, teams to leapfrog BYU in the rankings.

6. In case of tiebreakers, BYU got some help over the weekend

In 2024, BYU missed out on the Big 12 championship game due to the winning percentage of its conference opponents in conference play. It's way, way too early to be thinking about tiebreakers and BYU would like to avoid tiebreakers altogether. Still, if BYU needs help from tiebreakers down the road, it got some help over the weekend.

Baylor beat Colorado and Cincinnati beat Kansas State. BYU will face Baylor and Cincinnati later this season, and it won't face Colorado and Kansas State. Those two outcomes are good news for BYU now, but the could become season-defining news down the road if BYU needs tiebreakers to get to Arlington.

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