Cal Women Need Strong Finish to Enhance Their NCAA Tournament Position

Cal remains in good position to land a berth in the women’s NCAA basketball tournament for the first time since 2019, but the margin for error has shrunk with two regular-season games left before the ACC tournament.

The Bears (22-7, 10-6 ACC) already have the most wins since the 2014-15 season, and they have assured themselves the best conference record since 2017-18. This squad represents Cal’s best team since Charmin Smith became head coach prior to the 2019-20 season. But none of this will mean much if the Bears don’t get into the NCAA tournament.

The two most reliable projections for the women’s NCAA tournament still have the Bears in the field, but there is not as much room to spare as there was on January 13, when the Bears were 16-2 and ranked No. 18 in the country. Cal is 6-5 since then and is unranked.

Suddenly Thursday’s home game against Georgia Tech, which had been ranked most of the season, becomes important to Cal’s positioning in the NCAA tournament.

ESPN’s Charlie Crème moved Cal down to a No. 9 seed in his latest Bracketology report posted on Tuesday. That still leaves the Bears solidly in the 68-team field, but Oregon, which is listed as one of the last four teams to receive a first-round bye, is also a No. 9 seed.

It suggests Cal is not far from falling into the group of four teams that would have to play a preliminary-round game. It also suggests the Bears could conceivably fall completely out of the field if they collapse over the final two weeks, though that scenario is unlikely.

The NCAA tournament projections posted on Tuesday by NCAA.com’s Autumn Jackson are slightly more forgiving to Cal. She gives Cal a No. 8 seed.

If that assessment is correct, Cal would have a little more breathing room and could probably lose the final two regular-season games as a well as its first ACC tournament contest and still make the NCAA tournament field, although the Bears might have to play a play-in game in that case.

Nobody wants to play a preliminary-round game, which could eliminate a team before the real March Madness even begins.

Both projections place nine ACC teams in the women’s NCAA tournament field, with Notre Dame getting a No. 1 seed, and Virginia Tech being one of the last four teams to get into the field and being forced to play a play-in game.

The other six ACC teams projected to make it are Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Florida State, Louisville and Georgia Tech, the team Cal plays on Thursday at Haas Pavilion.

Wondering what the odds are of Cal winning the NCAA tournament? Well, ESPNBet Sportsbook places Cal's odds of claiming its first national women's basketball title at 500-to-1. Twenty-eight teams have shorter odds than that, with South Carolina and UConn being the co-favorites at 13-to-4 (+325).