Assessing Cal Football at the Halfway Point

There are two ways to look at Cal’s football season at the midpoint of its 12-game 2025 regular season, which includes a bye this weekend:

--Cal was picked to finish 15th in the 17-team ACC in the preseason media poll, but the Bears are 3-1 in games in which they were underdogs and are 1-1 in ACC games. They have won their only close game, in contrast to last year’s failures in one-score contests. This suggests Cal is exceeding expectations halfway through the 2025 season with a chance for some significant accomplishments.

--However, Cal was a 14-point favorite when it lost to San Diego State 34-0 in its fourth game, sneaked out a win in its fifth game against Boston College and did virtually nothing offensively in the second half of its 45-21 home loss to Duke this past Saturday, when the Blue Devils blew through Cal’s defense. That suggests the Bears are headed in the wrong direction with six games left.

Let’s break it down into several issues:

The Situation and the Possibilities

Cal (4-2, 1-1 ACC) needs to win two of its remaining six regular-season games to earn a bowl berth for the third straight season.

Cal needs to win four of its remaining games (including a possible bowl-game victory) to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2019, when the Bears went 8-5.

Cal needs to win three of its final six regular-season games to avoid a 16th consecutive season with a losing conference record, the longest such active streak among FBS teams.

Cal needs to win five games (including a possible bowl-game victory) to finish with its most wins since 2008, when the Bears went 9-4 under Jeff Tedford.

Assessing Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

The Upside:

As a true freshman he has exceeded expectations and has the potential to be among the best quarterbacks in the country and a high NFL draft pick if he continues to improve over the next year or two.

He has had stretches of spectacular play, such as completing his first nine passes in his college debut against Oregon State, leading a game winning drive that included a 51-yard touchdown pass in the closing moments against Boston College, and going 13-for-16 while leading long touchdown drives on the Bears’ first three possessions against Duke.

Sagapolutele has pinpoint accuracy when he is in rhythm and can throw from different arm angles and from different positions, and he can maneuver in the pocket.

His play so far is comparable to what Jared Goff did as a Cal freshman, and the game results have been better. Cal went 1-11 in 2013 when Goff became the first true freshman quarterback to start a season opener for Cal..

The Downside:

Sagapolutele has had stretches of substandard play, such as the game against San Diego State, the final two and half quarters against Duke, and the first half against Texas Southern.

Unlike most of the top quarterbacks in the ACC, Sagapolutele is not a serious running threat.

He has thrown nine touchdown passes and seven interceptions, not a good ratio. Over the past three games he has thrown three touchdown passes with six interceptions.

A quote by Duke head coach Manny Diaz after the Blue Devils’ victory is telling: “We knew that if we could hold them from running the football, the quarterback is immensely talented, but sooner or later he’d make mistakes, and that’s what proved to be true.”

Cal hopes Sagapolutele will not transfer to another school.

Cal’s Offense and Defense

The Bears’ deffense has been OK, but not as dominating as in past years under Justin Wilcox. Cal ranks sixth in the ACC in total defense and eighth in scoring defense, with several strong offensive opponents remaining on the schedule.

Cal lost a lot of talent from last year on the defensive side, and that includes Peter Sirmon, who was the Bears’ defensive coordinator the past six seasons before taking a job with the New Orleans Saints.

The Bears have not been great against the run, allowing 4.15 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks 14th in the conference.

The secondary was a major concern since Cal lost all five starters from last year, including three who are on NFL rosters as rookies this season. But Cal’s defensive backs this season have been better than adequate.

Cal’s offense has relied on the passing game more than it would like in offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin’s scheme. The Bears are averaging just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt, and Stanford is the only ACC teams that is worse, at 3.0.

The Bears’ offensive line has been an issue. Besides not producing a consistent running game, Cal has allowed 14 sacks, and only Syracuse has allowed more among ACC teams. Cal has started the same five offensive linemen in each of the past four games, so it remains to be seen what changes Cal can make to alleviate that shortcoming.

Reviewing the First Six Games:

Game One – Oregon State on the road (Oregon State favored by 1.0 point)

Cal 34, Oregon State 15

Cal dominated the game from beginning to end behind Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s outstanding college debut.

Quality of opponent: Oregon State is a disappointing 0-6, including a loss to Appalachian State. This Cal win does not look as impressive now as it did at the time.

Game Two – Texas Southern at home (Cal a prohibitive favorite but no point spread provided)

Cal 35, Texas Southern 3

Cal started slowly but dominated the second half for an easy win.

Quality of the opponent: Texas Southern is a mediocre FCS team that is 2-3 overall, including 2-2 against FCS opponents.

Game Three – Minnesota at home (Minnesota was a 2.5-point favorite)

Cal 27, Minnesota 14

Cal had a solid performance and turned a couple of late-game Minnesota mistakes into a 13-point victory after leading by just three points midway through the fourth quarter.

Quality of the opponent: Minnesota is 3-2, including 1-1 in the Big Ten, with a win over Rutgers and a lopsided loss to Ohio State.

Game Four – San Diego State on the road (Cal was a 14-point favorite)

San Diego State 34, Cal 0

Cal’s worst game of the season and the Bears’ first shutout defeat in six years after being a two-touchdown favorite.

Quality of the opponent: The Aztecs may be better than it appeared after their loss to Washington State in their second game. San Diego State is 4-1, with wins over Northern Illinois and Colorado State.

Game Five – Boston College on the road (Boston College was a 6.5-point favorite)

Cal 28, Boston College 24

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s 51-yard touchdown pass to Mason Mini put Cal ahead with 1:26 left, and Luke Ferrelli’s interception in the end zone with 15 seconds remaining sealed it.

Quality of the opponent: Boston College is 0-4 against FBS opponents, including a 10-point loss to Stanford and a 41-point loss to Pitt. The Eagles are starting to look like one of the worst teams in the ACC.

Game Six – Cal at home against Duke (Duke was a 3-point favorite)

Duke 45, Cal 21

After scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions to take a 21-7 lead, the Bears were dominated after that.

Quality of the opponent: The Blue Devils are 3-0 in the ACC and are the best team Cal has faced. They might have a shot at reaching the ACC title game.

Cal’s Remaining Six Games:

Friday, October 17 – Home against North Carolina (2-3)

The Tar Heels have lost two straight by lopsided margins under Bill Belichick

Friday, October 24 – Road against Virginia Tech (2-4)

Virginia Tech’s coach Brent Pry was fired after an 0-3 start that included a 45-26 loss to Old Dominion. The Hokies are 2-1 under interim head coach Philip Montgomery

Saturday, November 1 – Home against Virginia (5-1)

The 19th-ranked Cavaliers have won four in a row, including wins over Florida State and Louisville in their past two games.

Saturday, November 8 – Road against Louisville (4-1)

The Cardinals face Miami on October 17, and that will tell us what we need to know about Louisville, which had a soft nonconference schedule.

Saturday, November 22 – Road against Stanford (2-3)

The Cardinal is better than expected, but Cal has won four straight Big Games.

Saturday, November 29 – Home against SMU (3-2)

Ranked 16th in the preseason, SMU has not been as successful as expected, but it still has lots of talent.

Cal’s Top Eight Players Over the First Six Games

---1. Cornerback Hezekiah Masses – 4 interceptions, second in the country; 10 passes defensed, first in the country.

---2. Inside linebacker Cade Uluave – Uluave has 52 tackles, second in the ACC, and his 6.5 tackles for loss per game rank third in the ACC

---3. Quarterback Jaron-Keave Sagapolutele

---4. Tight end Mason Mini – The Bears’ surprise of the season with 26 receptions, 3 TDs

---5. Wide receiver Jacob De Jesus – Team-leading 34 receptions, 12.0 yards per punt return

---6. Inside linebacker Luke Ferrelli – Redshirt freshman had the game-saving interception against Boston College

---7. Wide receiver Trond Grizzell – Several amazing contested catches

---8. Cornerback Paco Austin – Solid opposite Masses.

Is Justin Wilcox’s Job in Jeopardy?

New Cal chancellor Rich Lyons and new general manager Ron Rivera have made it clear that Cal needs to have success in football, and they implied that six-win seasons are not enough.

Rivera said before the season started that eight or nine wins would constitute a successful season, and Cal will be challenged to reach that barrier. That does not necessarily mean seven wins would be unacceptable; it will depend on how Cal looks in the remaining six games.

At 4-2, Wilcox’s job is not in immediate jeopardy, and his contract runs through the 2027 season. He is scheduled to make $4.55 million this year, $4,75 million next year and $5.25 million in 2027.

That puts him about in the middle of coaching salaries in the ACC and is considerably less than the salaries of North Carolina’s Bill Belichick and Clemson’s Dabo Sweeney, who reportedly are making more than $10 million apiece this year. Nonetheless it would be expensive for Cal to dismiss Wilcox after this season.

One final consideration: In December 2021 Wilcox turned down an offer to be the head coach at Oregon, his alma mater, to stay at Cal. It’s debatable whether that show of loyalty would affect his job security at Cal.

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