What If Fernando Mendoza Had Stayed at Cal?

Fernando Mendoza is a Cal graduate who spent three seasons on the Cal football team, so after seeing him win the Heisman Trophy, lead Indiana to a national championship and be projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft, Bears fans have to wonder: What if Mendoza had stayed at Cal?

Such what-if hypotheticals are pointless, of course, but they are also unavoidable.

So let’s proceed.

Let’s first address three accompanying other hypotheticals.

---If Tosh Lupoi had been named Cal’s head coach on December 4, 2024 – seven days before Mendoza announced he was entering the transfer portal – instead of December 4, 2025, maybe Lupoi could have used his considerable persuasive powers to convince Mendoza to stay.

---If Ron Rivera had been named Cal’s football general manager three months before Mendoza entered the portal instead of three months after, maybe that would have made a difference.

---If Mendoza had not announced on December 11, 2024, that he was entering the portal, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele probably would not have committed to Cal on January 5, 2025, after leaving Oregon. And you can debate all day about the merits of that tradeoff, although Cal finished with a winning record (7-6) for the first time since 2019 with freshman Sagapolutele at the helm, and he has committed to staying at Cal.

So let’s continue the hypothetical of a 2025 Cal team with Mendoza and without Sagapolutele.

---You could argue that, based on high school prospect ratings, Indiana was not a whole lot more talented than Cal, although the Hoosiers obviously performed better than the Golden Bears did.

---Would Mendoza have progressed as much under the tutelage of Cal offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin as he did in the proven Curt Cignetti system at Indiana?

Harsin mentored Kellen Moore as Boise State’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, and Moore finished in the top eight in the Heisman voting three consecutive years, including a fourth-place finish in 2010.

---Cal had very little running game to complement its passing attack this past season. The Bears ranked 133rd of 134 FBS teams in rushing offense. That makes it difficult to pass effectively.

Indiana, meanwhile, ranked 12th in the nation in rushing offense this season and averaged 5.33 yards per carry compared with Cal’s 2.76 yards per carry. A running game is a quarterback’s best friend.

---Cal simply did not have the offensive line that Indiana did, which was also evidenced in pass protection. Cal gave up 49 sacks in 2024, Mendoza’s final season with the Bears, and allowed 32 sacks this past season.

Mendoza was sacked 25 times this season in 16 games, three more games than Cal played.

And Miami’s effective pass rush in the national championship game showed the difference that makes. Mendoza, sacked three times and pressured almost every time, had a pedestrian passing performance: 16-for-27 for 186 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions.

Granted, he made some big plays, including his fourth-down touchdown run, but his passing numbers did not resemble his statistics throughout the season and the playoffs and reflected the pressure Miami applied.

---Finally, what about the fact that Mendoza is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft? Wouldn’t a player with that kind of pro talent lift the Bears considerably?

Well, there is precedent.

Cal has had two quarterbacks taken with the No. 1 overall pick – Jaren Goff in the 2016 NFL draft and Steve Bartkowski in 1975. Cal had winning overall records in the final college seasons of both (8-5 in 2015 and 7-3-1 in 1974), but the Bears had a losing conference record in 2015 and finished third in the Pac-8 in 1974.

Future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers led Cal to 10-2 record and a final No. 10 national ranking in 2004, but he was not taken until the 24th pick of the 2005 NFL draft.

Tom Brady, generally acknowledged as the greatest NFL quarterback in history, did not push Michigan into the top four of the final national rankings in either of his years as a regular starter (1998 and 1999) despite the Wolverines considerable talent. And he was taken in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL draft.

Two final points:

---Late in the 2023 season when Mendoza had taken over as Cal's starter as a redshirt freshman, Mendoza's parents told our Jeff Faraudo that Mendoza would not consider transferring. Of course, that was before his strong 2024 season and the possibility of an NFL career became realistic.

---Where would Mendoza be now if Bill Musgrave, then Cal's offensive coordinator, had not received a tip about this two-star high school prospect from Miami who was committed to Yale? Musgraves had been searching for a quarterback recruit after Justyn Martin had decommitted from Cal months earlier, and Mendoza became a last-gasp target. Mendoza was a late Cal signee with few people noticing.

So we end this what-if hypothetical where we started – just wondering.

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