2023-24 UC Basketball Preview Paw Prints: Northern Kentucky

Cincinnati is trying to avoid a 3-1 start like NKU handed them last season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Nov 17, 2023 11:23 AM EST

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CINCINNATI — The 3-0 Cincinnati Bearcats got a week off to keep stewing in last year's shocking 64-51 loss to Northern Kentucky, which also came in the fourth game of the season.

Both teams look a lot different his time around, as Cincinnati continues without Aziz Bandaogo and Jamille Reynolds on the floor. The Bearcats scored just 11 points in the second half at NKU and cannot afford another performance like that to keep the NCAA tournament window as wide as possible.

Cincinnati enters the game against Sam Vinson and Marques Warrick ranked 51st in KenPom, while NKU is 206th. ESPN's matchup predictor has Cincinnati winning 88.4% of the time.

When UC Has The Ball

No Chris Brandon to worry about this time for UC hoops. The forward terrorized on the glass last year with 16 of NKU's 35 rebounds. Enter Forward Keeyan Itejere. He transferred from Marquette this past offseason and has been the Norse's best defender thus far.

He leads the team in defensive box plus/minus (5.9), block percentage (15%), and steal percentage (3.7%). The 6-foot-9, 205-pound roamer has been a menace for opposing offenses through three games. He's easily been the most efficient NKU player and someone Cincinnati has to keep tabs on in half-court settings or he could similarly wreck things like Brandon.

The NKU defense overall is not good, ranking 223rd nationally in points allowed (72.3), and 225th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency (104.8). they aren't a tall team by any means with Itejere being the only player above 6-foot-8.

Warrick (15 PPG, 1.7 steals) does lead the team in total steals as the top offensive player in last year's matchup and picked up where he left off in 2023. He and Vinson (team-leading 16 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.3 APG) make up an interesting veteran-against-youth backcourt matchup with UC's Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James as the one-two punch at point guard in Clifton.

UC enters this game with the 83rd-ranked offense on KenPom as the squad finds a scoring and usage hierarchy. NKU should be a good chance to keep fine-tuning that plan.

When NKU Has The Ball

Slowing down Vinson and/or Warrick is the top path to an easy victory on Sunday. The two combine for 31 of NKU's 69.7 PPG and are both posting over 22% usage rates this season.

Vinson is a wiley 6-foot-5 guard with strong finishing skills and a fiery competitive spirit. He's boosted his two-point mark from 46% to 56% this season and it's made him the second-most efficient player on the team behind Itejere. Warrick feeds off Vinson with similar energy as a player who's performed well in a bunch of big games.

Still, it's been a slow start for Warrick this season and UC needs to continue that trend. Warrick's shooting 34.8% from two-point range and 28.6% from deep as he tries to find a rhythm. It'll be interesting to see how much initial focus UC devotes to Warrick after he dropped a game-high 22 points on 9-of-17 shooting last season.

NKU's not shooting well in really any metric thus far, but forcing them into contested threes looks like the best game plan against a team shooting 28.3% from deep (283rd nationally).

Prediction: 79-69 Cincinnati

The Bearcats right last season's wrong with a wire-to-wire win over the cross-river outfit. Warrick continues to struggle while Vinson and Itejere keep the score respectable with strong individual outings.

UC wins the rebounding battle handily this time and shoots 40% from deep to stay undefeated ahead of a Power Five battle against Georgia Tech.

The game tips off at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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