Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball 2025-26 Storylines: Colorado Buffaloes

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats' basketball team is trying to avoid more doldrums from the 2025-26 season in their second home conference battle against the Colorado Buffaloes.

Cincinnati is tied for last in the conference at 0-3, but enters the game with a 77.7% chance to win this game on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. The Buffaloes are 75th on KenPom as of this writing, and the Bearcats are 64th.

UC has lost its three conference games by a combined 10 points, and left them in the program's largest midseason hole this decade. They'll have to shake that off against Buffaloes team that's 2-1 in the Big 12.

"I'm heartbroken for our players," UC head coach Wes Miller said after the latest close loss. "When the guys are doing the right stuff and going about things the right way, you want them to get rewarded for that. We were really close again. Give (Themus) Fulks credit, he made a really tough shot. I thought Baba (Miller) made a tough play to give us the lead. Nobody lost the game. I thought both teams made plays to win the game. I'm disappointed, frustrated, and hurt we didn't get the result, but I'm proud of my team."

Cincinnati is 8-1 against Colorado since the start of the 1949-50 season.

Fastbreak Storyline: Limit Fouls

Colorado brings a solid offense into this game as its big strength (85.6 PPG, 44th nationally, 56th in adjusted offensive rating), led by four players averaging double-digit scoring figures. Plenty of that scoring comes from the charity stripe (19.4 makes per game, 24th nationally, 78.1% ranks 12th nationally).

Colorado thrives on contact and wonking out team rotations with a lot of physical contact and rim attacks. Freshman guard Isaiah Johnson (15.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 44.4% from deep) isn't the biggest guy at 6-foot, 170 pounds, but he loves contact. The scoring force averages seven FT attempts per game (fifth in Big 12) and leads a rotation with four players taking at least two FTs per game.

The rest of the rotation is a lot bigger, highlighted by 6-9, 180-pound shot blocking banshee Bangot Dak (11.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.7 blocks), who swatted a career-high eight shots in UC's 68-62 win last season. He mixes with fellow 6-9 maulers Sebastian Rancik (13.9 points, 5.6 rebounds) and Alon Michaeli (9.7 points, 4.9 rebounds) to roll out a truly daunting front to deal with foul-wise alongside Johnson.

They want to do two things: Score inside and foul you to oblivion.

CU averages a whopping 22.8 made twos per game (17th nationally) and takes 41.6 (27th). They probably should shoot way more threes, given they hit 36.3% from deep (65th) and only take 18.8 per game (328th). UC could help its final record if it stopped shooting so many threes as a terrible outside shot team (28.4% from deep in conference play, 13th in Big 12).

If the Bearcats can force CU to avoid its quick shooting tendencies (96th in adjusted tempo) and force late-shot clock decisions in the halfcourt, they will have a chance to end this three-game losing streak. UC has been pretty disciplined all season, fouling just 16.4 times per game (87th nationally), but they could get beat by double digits if they slip up and let CU take 25 plus free throws.

Ultimately, it's tracking to be another close game where CU has a closer (Johnson) and Cincinnati has yet to see one arise. Maybe Moustapha Thiam can be that player moving forward after a career-high 24 points against UCF, but the brutal reality is that player likely doesn't reside on the Bearcats 2025-26 roster.

Shon Abaev was the best candidate to be this team's late-game closer entering the season, but his freshman campaign has gone about as poorly as it can outside of any injuries. The forward has a -2.6 box plus/minus this season and a 40.2% effective field goal rate, both of which rank third to last among Cincinnati's 12 qualified players (only Keyshuan Tillery and Jordi Rodriguez have been worse).

Another chance for a hero to emerge against an actual top 100 teams comes tomorrow at 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.

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