Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball 2025-26 Storylines: No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones

CINCINNATI — A top-two gauntlet begins for the Bearcats basketball team on Saturday afternoon against No. 2 Iowa State. Wes Miller's team got smacked around by the Cyclones in both losses last season by a combined 31 points and is ready to bring the fight to Fifth Third Arena.

Cincinnati enters the game with a 23.9% chance to beat the 16-1 Cyclones on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. The Bearcats are ranked 56th on KenPom, compared to Iowa State's third-ranked status.

UC is now 4-5 against ISU since the start of the 1949-50 season and is trying to build on offensive success with Baba Miller and Moustapha Thiam it found across a 77-68 win over Colorado.

“Well, I'm happy for our players," Wes Miller said after Wednesday's win. "They've been crazy resilient, a tough go over here with results, and they've been kind of right there, it feels like every night. They're improving, and it seems like some of the things that have held us back from winning, they go and attack them the next day in practice. They've stayed resilient, stayed together. So, I feel great that they got to experience a positive result tonight.”

Cincinnati also plays No. 1 Arizona next on the road, setting up two chances to shock the world for the first time in over a decade. The Bearcats’ last AP top 10 wins came in the 2011-12 season (No. 8 Marquette, No. 2 Syracuse, No. 10 Florida State).

Shoot The Lights Out, Hit The Glass, And Hope

There are not many paths to a win for Cincinnati that don't involve a full-force offensive showing against one of the best defenses in the country.

Iowa State is one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking 16th in KenPom's offensive efficiency and fourth on defense. They have zero glaring weaknesses to exploit besides a 68.5% free throw mark. Cincinnati shoots even worse at the line (64.2%).

"They're terrific," Miller said on his weekly radio show. "The first time we played against them, we didn't understand their defense. Last year, Jizzle and Day Day had a better understanding. They're fourth-ranked defense and 14th-ranked offense.They're so consistent."

The Bearcats simply have to outplay the nation's second-best team and get some good shooting luck on the defensive end. Easier said than done. Iowa State is a scorching outside shooting team (40.3%, fourth nationally), led by a familiar face in long forward Milan Momcilovic (17.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists).

He's been the best shooter in the country this season at 6-8, 220 pounds, leading the whole nation in three-point shooting (53.8%) on a whopping 6.9 attempts per game. The Cyclones are canning 8.3 threes per game in the Big 12 to Cincinnati's six. UC has to be near double-digit made threes to have any chance against this buzzsaw offense, averaging 86.5 points per game.

ISU's only loss of the season came this week against Kansas, which played its best game of the season across much of the roster. Every player in that game's seven-man Kansas rotation scored at least eight points. It led to an 84-63 win, so Cincinnati may not need seven players approaching double-digit points to eke out a win, but it can't just be Thiam and Miller scoring.

Those two are gonna have to be offensive hot points, and help overcome a nasty rebounding matchup on both ends. Big 12 Player of the Year candidate Justin Jefferson (17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists) will have plenty of punch back against them. The 6-8, 220-pound box brawler has been one of the best rebounders in the Big 12 for years.

ISU is 24th nationally with a 55.1% rebound rate this season and only gives up 30.1 boards per game to opponents (13th nationally). Coaches put so much emphasis on this part of the game for a huge reason. When Cincinnati hasn't hit the glass this season, they've lost. UC is 2-7 when they sweep up 35 or fewer rebounds this season, and 7-1 when they get 36 or more.

Miller has been one of the best rebounders in the nation (32.2% defensive rebound rate ranks first in the Big 12), but he'll have to elevate that even more on Saturday, while getting more from his teammates. UC has to be box-out sound all afternoon and find someone else besides Miller who wants to get nasty on the glass.

He is the only Bearcat with a 20%-plus defensive or offensive rebound rate this season. They can't leave him on an island against the Cyclone pitbulls.

Cincinnati is 0-6 in Quad 1 games this season, with two of the final seven chances at a marquee win coming in the next few days.

Check out the ISU action on Saturday at 2 p.m. ET. The game airs on Peacock.

Bookmark Bearcats Talk for the latest news, breakdowns, and so much more. Check out our YouTube page as well, starting with the video below.

Also, don't miss the podcast, Bearcat Blitz, wherever you get your shows!

Apple: http://apple.co/4fI26zj

Spotify: http://bit.ly/3OqvD4l

YouTube: http://bit.ly/414XiQ6

-----

Be sure to keep it locked in on Bearcats Talk, as we cover the trials and tribulations of the Big 12!

Follow Bearcats Talk on Twitter: @BearcatsTalk

Like Bearcats Talk on Facebook: Bearcats Talk