Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball 2025-26 Storylines: UCF Knights

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats turn around quickly this weekend for a Sunday afternoon battle against rival UCF inside Fifth Third Arena.

Cincinnati is under .500 in February for the first time since February 2008 after falling to 11-12 on Thursday against West Virginia. UCF is having a far better season as the top surprise in the Big 12.

Johnny Dawkins team enters this game 17-5 overall and 6-4 in the Big 12, while UC is 11-12 and 3-7 in the conference. UCF is 45th on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 64th. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives the Bearcats a 62.2% chance to win the contest at home.

Miller's team will try to avoid blowing another big lead as they did in the 54-49 loss to WVU.

"I want to apologize to our fans and all the people who support Cincinnati basketball," Miller said in his Thursday postgame press conference. "It's not OK. I don't want for one second for people to think that I think it's OK. In this program, there's a higher standard. There's no excuse. None of the circumstances matters. We have to close games out."

Fastbreak Storyline: Have To Find Some Health

Cincinnati should've been able to hold onto its 14-point lead on Thursday even with all the injuries it's dealing with, but those issues are clearly stacking the small margins against this downtrodden team.

Moustapha Thiam missed the game with an ankle injury after leaving the blowout loss to Houston early, and once Cincinnati's fouls started racking up on Halvine Dzellat and Tyler McKinley, UC bled out against WVU. Without Thiam, Jalen Haynes, and Shon Abaev, there is just so little forward size in the rotation to work with.

Add in the fact that Thiam rolled over his old team with 24 points and five rebounds to power UC's offense in these two sides' first meeting this season, and you get a tough task for Cincinnati if he can't return with two days between games.

"He tried to participate in shootaround, and he could not do it; he did not think he could play," Miller said about Thiam on Thursday. "He tried to practice a little bit the last couple of days, but he couldn't really do it."

Jordi Rodriguez should be the savior for emergency moments like these, but he's been a disaster this season (-2.7 box score plus/minus this season at 6-6, worst on the entire team). UC literally has no one to turn to if Thiam can't go on Sunday, and the Knights start hunting contact as much as West Virginia did. UC basically has two truly healthy, capable forwards right now in Dzellat and Baba Miller.

Tyler McKinley is battling like a true Bearcat through clear lingering knee issues. His minutes got worse and worse the longer he was on the court against WVU because his body simply can't pull through this kind of work; it's no fault of his own.

That takes us from a completely paced-down game against WVU (362nd nationally in tempo) to a completely paced-up game against UCF (112th in tempo). UC barely lost to UCF on the road last month, just like they barely lost to WVU in Morgantown.

The Knights have been solid, but not good, in almost every statistical factor during the conference slate. They don't make back-breaking mistakes to hurt their winning chances and have done just enough all around the offense and defense to be in the league's top half.

Cincinnati will have to do a better job containing lead-scorer Riley Kugel, who helped drive that UCF win last month with 19 points. It's a really tall task for this team, especially if Thiam can't come back and instantly play his usual minute allotment. They struggled with another microwave scorer on Thursday, giving up 16 second-half points to Honor Huff.

UC won on the margins last month (9% turnover rate, 29% offensive rebound rate), but they couldn't shoot then (50% effective field goal rate), and they definitely can't shoot now with all the injuries wrecking the rotations out.

The Bearcats rank 323rd in effective field goal percentage this season (48.6%). The next closest Big 12 team nationally is TCU at 196th. It's just nearly impossible to win in this league shooting that poorly, especially against a team like UCF, which is shooting 54.3% eFG (80th nationally).

The Knights are getting very lucky with this 17-5 record (fourth in KenPom's luck metric), but you make your own luck is a cliché for a reason. They've executed at a high level in these final close-game moments, while Cincinnati keeps finding ways to blow them (345th in luck).

If Thiam can't play on Sunday at close to 100% health, it's hard to see UC having enough firepower to keep pace with another Big 12 rival.

Catch the game at 2 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

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