Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Arizona Wildcats

CINCINNATI — Another big one awaits the Cincinnati Bearcats football team on Saturday as they matchup against the Arizona Wildcats at home.

Cincinnati enters the game as 6.5-point betting favorites, with a 68% chance to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

The two teams have never played one another. Cincinnati currently has the third-best odds to win the Big 12 and needs to win this game to continue controlling its destiny towards a conference championship.

A loss gives Utah the head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish 7-2 in the league.

"Some really good wideouts, good running game as well," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said this week. "The running game is overshadowed by the passing game. They finished the game against Kansas by running the football on the last drive. We're excited about the opportunity to be sitting here playing in the middle of November, tied for first place in the Big 12. We're excited about that opportunity because our goals are still set in front of us. We have to have a great week of practice this week, and our preparation will determine how we go out and play.”

The white on black uniform matchup adds even more visual intrigue to the game.

Offensive Key To The Game: Good Brendan Running The Ball

The Bearcats have unsurprisingly gone the way of Brendan Sorsby this season. He's been mostly stellar in their wins (67% completion rate, 87.8 Total ESPN QBR) and horrendous in the two losses (41% completion rate, 43.7 Total QBR).

Cincinnati needs him to play well on Saturday against a very sound Arizona pass defense (23rd in EPA/dropback allowed). They have a deep stable of pass defenders that's helped them amass 12 interceptions this season (seventh nationally) and allow just 160 passing yards per game (seventh nationally).

It's a major test of Sorsby's passing development.

“I think it's more than just Sorsby," Satterfield said about toppling more man coverage looks this week. "I think it's everybody on our offense, starting with the coaches. We have to put our players in positions where they can make plays. We have to do a good job of staying on the sticks and not getting off schedule.

"Ultimately, guys have to block well up front, we have to run good routes, and throw and catch. Everybody has to go out and execute at a high level. When you're playing really good defenses like Arizona's, you have to execute. If one or two guys are not executing, then you're going to have a much more difficult time moving the football. We've seen that from Arizona over this season, they do some great things on defense and shut down a lot of good offenses.”

The Wildcats have been great at limiting passing yards with those man-coverage heavy looks, but it's left them heavily exposed to quarterback scrambles and designed runs (108th in scramble EPA allowed, 123rd in designed run EPA). Sorsby should have 12-15 rushing opportunities here, and he has to max those with as many first downs as possible.

Saturday is primed for a big running day from Sorsby, especially if he can avoid coverage sacks like he has all season (2.6% pressure-to-sack ratio).

Cincinnati is a very strong designed QB rushing offense (12th in designed run EPA), but those runs have been far less effective when scrambling (84th in scrmable EPA). If Sorsby can only find space on designed runs, things get much more difficult for this offense. Arizona does not allow consistent long drives (17th in quality drive rate and early-down EPA allowed).

It's another tough defensive test, like Utah presented.

Defensive Key To The Game: Find Pass Rush

Cincinnati's inability to rush the passer (and tackle them) this season has been one of the biggest reasons they've faced so many snaps through nine games (110th in quality drive rate allowed).

They are basically bottom 15 in every facet of attacking the passer (119th in pressure rate, 116th in sack EPA, 117th in scramble rate allowed, 126th in scramble EPA allowed). Now, Arizona QB Noah Fifita is not much of a rushing threat at all (1.5 yards per carry this season), but he'll take those yards if they are offered.

This is a great opportunity for UC to flip the narrative on their defense and post multiple sacks on Saturday. Arizona is 91st in pressure rate allowed and 118th in Sack EPA allowed. It's time this healthy defensive front makes a big impact after getting two weeks to prime their bodies for this one.

“[Baylor quarterback Sawyer] Robertson was 6’5, and Fifita’s got a lot more ability to move with his feet," Satterfield said on Tuesday. "He does a great job of buying time and his pocket scrambling. He’s scrambling to throw, and the guy can also run. That last drive last week, I think he may have gotten two true draws in that drive, over 10 yards apiece to go down and score. So he's a much more dynamic runner, but he can throw. He ended up tying for the most touchdowns in Arizona football history. That speaks volumes about how good a player he is.”

Fifita has been pretty dialed in this season, passing for 7.7 yards per attempt and amassing 26 total touchdowns. He's got 31 career starts and will not be afraid to enter this environment.

Cincinnati has to find a way to pressure him, or the veteran will move that football up and down the field. The Bearcats' passing defense has left plenty to be desired (103rd in success rate allowed, 69th in EPA/dropback allowed).

Prediction: 31-30 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 8-1

All advanced stats via CFBGraphs.com

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