Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: No. 11 BYU Cougars

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats' backs are against the wall this weekend, facing the 11th-ranked BYU Cougars at home in the final game of the season at Nippert Stadium.

Cincinnati has to win out and get at least one loss each from Utah, Arizona State, and Houston to punch a ticket into the Big 12 Championship game. They currently sit sixth in the standings and fourth among the 5-2 teams because of tiebreakers. An upset win over BYU would be huge either way to get their first-ever win against the Cougars (0-3 all-time).

UC holds a 32.1% chance to win the game on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

"They're a good football team, as we talked about all last week," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said last week. "I’m excited about this opportunity against BYU, a great team. They have done a phenomenal job there. Very mature team, physical, big, coached well. The defense is one of the best defenses in the country. Offensively, coming into the season, everyone thought that with a new quarterback, they might struggle a little bit, but [BYU quarterback Bear] Bachmeier has played outstanding. He's playing like he's an older player, an experienced player, plays with great poise, throws the ball really well, and then can run the football; he's done a great job as a dual threat."

Let's dive into the keys to victory in Saturday's blackout affair at Nippert Stadium.

Offensive Key to the Game: Maximize Run Game

BYU is pretty stout across the board on defense, but they can be bested on the ground much more easily than through the air. That's a good sign for Cincinnati as it prepares to have a full stable of rushers this week with Evan Pryor returning following a two-game absence.

The Cougars rank eighth nationally in EPA/dropback allowed, but are just 38th in EPA/rush and 39th in yards per carry (3.72 YPC). Cincinnati is 21st in EPA/rush offensively this season. That's not a major weakness to attack by any means, but that's what you get with a team that's only lost to the clear Big 12 favorite Texas Tech Raiders this season.

Cincinnati's offensive line could eat in this game if it consistently gets the outside zone rushing game going like it did in the first half of the 30-24 loss to Arizona. A strong push on Saturday is imperative, and likely against a BYU defense that's 100th nationally in rushing yards allowed before running back contact.

If UC can run consistently, it will open up the most effective passing path Brendan Sorsby's gone down this season: Play action. The veteran passer has an 86.5 PFF passing grade on play action with eight yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and one interception.

Getting this disciplined secondary to respect the run and bite up on some deep developing routes that way could get Cincinnati the big plays it needs to pull the upset. BYU is allowing an 8.58-yard average depth of target this season (88th nationally), so the deep ball could easily be found this way.

“They’re really physical, really disciplined, and they're not too complex," Sorsby said about the BYU defense. "They do what they do really well. There's a reason that they have as much success as they do. They have a bunch of talented guys to go out there and play hard and physically, so it's going to be really tough for us.”

Cincinnati's offense will be suffocated if it can't run the ball with its stable of backs on Saturday night.

Defensive Key to the Game: Keep Bachmeier In The Pocket

The BYU surprise this season has been powered by their stellar true freshman passer, who is seemingly a lock to win Big 12 Freshman of the Year. He's been unbelievable this season with a 79.5 ESPN QBR (15th nationally) and 23 total touchdowns to just four interceptions.

Cincinnati cannot let him control this game with his arm and legs if they want this win. Bachmeier is averaging 4.2 yards per carry, even with 10 sacks taken, and has been one of the best scramblers in the country. That's terrible news for this Bearcats defense that's hemorrhaged yards and long drives all season (120th in quality drive rate allowed).

They have to overcome the quarterback rushing mismatch here (124th in scramble EPA allowed, 109th in scramble rate allowed, BYU 58th and 81st). Bachmeier will assuredly run more than he's used to if Cincinnati's soft zone areas open things up for him. It's a long shot that he will be under much duress here, even in a hostile Nipp @ Nite environment.

Cincinnati has been one of the worst pressure units in the country ( 112th in pressure rate and sack EPA), while BYU boasts an offensive line right in line with UC's (ninth in sack EPA allowed). UC has to bring some different pressure looks here and gamble to try and get high-variance sack plays to go their way.

“Since I got here and came to campus, Nipp at Night is something that everybody talks about," Mikah Coleman said about the upcoming crowd. "The atmosphere, they say it's a really great atmosphere. I just can't wait to see how the crowd looks, how the fans look. It’s senior night, so it’s going to be emotional. It's going to be loud, crazy, and I’m ready to send the seniors out on the right note.”

BYU is 13th nationally in red zone score rate as it is, so you might as well shake your norms and bring blitz looks that Bachmeier may not be ready for; otherwise, they will move the football at will (25th nationally in quality drive rate).

All the action kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on FOX this Saturday.

Prediction: 38-34 BYU

Season Prediction Record: 8-2

All advanced stats courtesy CFBGraphs.com

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