Game Preview: Cincinnati Heads Into Hostile Bounce House For UCF Battle

The Bearcats have won three-straight games against UCF.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Oct 28, 2022 5:13 PM EDT

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1, 3-0) face their biggest road test since Week 1 of the season against the UCF Golden Knights (5-2, 2-1) in search of an AAC-record 20th straight conference win.

Cincinnati had plenty of issues (penalties, third downs, dropped passes) to work through this week after a 29-27 win over SMU. Now they face the sixth-best offense nationally in total yards (511 per game) and one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country.

Cincinnati enters this game a 1.5-point underdog (first time as an underdog since Week 1) and ESPN's matchup predictor has UC winning 39.6% of the time. UC is currently ranked 21st in SP+, and UCF sits at No. 36 in that metric. The Bearcats also have an edge in net yards per play, sitting at 19th nationally, while UCF is 37th.

The Bearcats are 4-3 all-time against UCF—having won three straight contests after a 38-13 road loss in 2018.

“It’s huge to me because I kind of go back to always what starts [the rivalry]," Head coach Luke Fickell said about the matchup. "Year one [under Fickell] I remember that game, whether it was called because of the weather or it was called because of anything else. The reality is it was called, and it wasn't a game, so whether it's become a rivalry because they were the [AAC] Champs that we ended up knocking them off a couple of years ago; all rivalries are created differently. To me, any team that has beaten us, any team that has embarrassed us as they did in year one, that was something that will never go away for me. So, in my own mind and my own heart, it's been a rivalry since that."

Let's preview UC's big matchup at the Bounce House.

*All EPA stats from CFBGraphs.com and line stats from Football Outsiders

Potent Plumlee

UCF is known for its high-powered QB production over the years and Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee is filling that role beautifully in 2021.

The 6-foot, 200-pound senior has completed 132 of 205 passes (64%) for 1,812 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions through seven games. Oh, and he's the lead ballcarrier as well—topping all teammates in rushing (506 yards), and carries (101).

The Bearcats have some firsthand experience facing dual threats this season (K.J. Jefferson, Gerry Bohanon), but Plumlee's a new animal.

“He is uniquely different than anybody that we have seen as far, in terms of a running quarterback," Fickell said about Plumlee. "It's great that we have seen some of those situations—it is great that we have done well and great that we struggled a little bit. We have to figure out what's the best fit for us. They will do some things a little bit differently. They will adjust to things like they do because they are really good coaches and players.

UC would love to create a repeat performance from last week, where Plumlee tossed half his season-long interception total and lost a fumble in the 34-13 loss to ECU. The Pirates threw a lot of different looks at Plumlee between zone and man, catching an interception on three of his 12 incompletions.

A diverse coverage plan should be enough for the best sacking team in the country to get home. UCF kept their season trend going with four sacks allowed last week and now faces a team averaging 4.14 per game (first nationally). The Golden Knights rank poorly in sack rate (7.5%, 95th nationally) as they get ready for the best team in the country at getting after the QB.

Yet, the offensive line mauls teams when Plumlee, Isaiah Bowser (378 rush yards), and R.J. Harvey (eight yards per carry on 37 totes) run the ball. Harvey's mark would be first nationally if he had enough carries, four spots better than UC's Charles McClelland (6.86 YPC, fifth nationally). UCF's offensive line ranks 11th in average line yards and 24th in stuff rate.

Forcing the efficient UCF rushing attack (16th in EPA/carry) to hide and rely on Plumlee's arm (81st in EPA/pass) is crucial on Saturday afternoon.

Transfer Town

Plumlee is the most impactful transfer on the team, but the leading running back, wide receiver, and linebacker are all making big impacts at their new home.

Bowser (10 rushing TDs, t-8th nationally) came over from Northwestern following the 2020 season. He is struggling efficiency-wise (3.78 YPC) but has a clear nose for the endzone.

"Their offense is going to run, whether it is the quarterback running the football or scrambling around making things happen with his feet and his arm," Fickell said. "I think the entire first seven games help prepare you for whatever it is that you are going to see—this might be a little bit different. There might not be as many shots down the field as we prepared for last week. I like to prepare for those things. That's where some of their biggest plays have come as well. I think the whole picture of it in terms of the entire year from what we faced in week one to this past week is what helps us grow and be able to adapt and put a plan in place.”

Alabama transfer Javon Baker is in his first year at UCF and leads the team in receiving yards (411) and yards per catch among players with at least 13 grabs (15.8 YPC). He had just seven career catches in his first two years at Alabama, but he's now a big play weapon for Plumlee and forms a nice combination with leading catcher and TD scorer Ryan O'Keefe (32 catches, 392 yards, four scores).

On defense, UCF is led by new Eastern Illinois transfer linebacker Jason Johnson. He has a team-high 65 tackles this season (t-34th nationally), but mostly does clean-up work at the second level. He has just two tackles for loss and no pass break ups this season.

The Golden Knights' main havoc-creator is senior defensive end Tre'mon Morris-Brash. He paces the team with nine tackles for loss (23rd nationally), four sacks (t-43rd nationally), and two fumble recoveries, one of which he took 90 yards for a touchdown.

Containing his impact on the edge is imperative as the Bearcats step into a nasty environment.

Hostile House

Cincinnati isn't an underdog in this game because Las Vegas is bored of UC. The Bounce House is going to bump on Saturday afternoon in what should be a similar environment to the 36-33 win in 2019 and the 38-13 loss a year prior.

"This is our first true challenge since week one where we have to go on a road in a hostile environment and play a great football team," Fickell said acknowledging the challenge. "Not taking anything away from the teams we have played on the road, but they haven’t been hostile environments since week one and this will be that. It’s another challenge for us. That's, you know, probably the thing that us looks like more than anything is that they have found ways to rise to the challenge of whatever that takes.”

All of this, as Cincinnati now wears the ominous crown of the least disciplined team in the country. They posted season-highs in penalties (14) and penalty yards (128 yards) against SMUto don it.

All 130 other teams in the country are now at least seven yards better in penalty yards per game (86), and UC is tied with Syracuse for the most penalties per game (9.57).

The Bearcats have never ranked in the top half nationally under Luke Fickell in those metrics, but this is a mess. There is no other way to slice the situation. Coaches can only do so much to harp on this, especially when many of Saturday's calls were personal fouls after the whistle.

“It's nerve-racking. It's exhausting. It's all of the above, but it's an issue," Fickell exasperated about the penalties. "I spent an inordinate amount of time trying to find ways that are going to help us find ways that we can be better. I Haven't done a great job and obviously haven't done a good job at finding what that balance is and some of the things that you need to do and say just yet. Again, it can get lopsided and get out of control, it can get out of hand. This was one of those ones where it did and hopefully, the realization when you can show it and talk about it as not just a staff, but as an entire team. The guys start to recognize the impact that they have, and that's the only way that I really know to try to make a change. It's not standing up there hollering and screaming, pulling guys out of games, and things like that. We've got to recognize the impact that it has on us, the stress levels that it has on us, and how it affects us.”

Cincinnati had just 65 penalty yards (second-lowest of the season) against Arkansas and couldn't cover that road spread—let alone win. They cannot afford to shoot themselves in the foot even that much on Saturday if they want to avoid another AAC nail-biter.

Injury Note: UC leading wide receiver Tyler Scott and defensive end Jabari Taylor are both questionable.

The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday and is airing on ESPN. Watch via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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