Game Preview: Kansas Entering Clifton Ready to Spoil Senior Day

Cincinnati has not beaten a legacy Big 12 team since joining the conference.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Nov 23, 2023 11:26 AM EST

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CINCINNATI — The Kansas Jayhawks roll into town looking to spoil Cincinnati football's Senior Day and send the program to its first nine-loss season since 1998.

Kansas could be down to its third-string quarterback, Cole Ballard, on Saturday while Cincinnati mulls playing its third-stringer at some point, Brady Drogosh.

The Jayhawks own the second-best team PFF grade in the Big 12 this season (90.6 overall).

"We know Kansas is coming in here arguably one of the better teams in the Big 12," Scott Satterfield said "They've done a tremendous job over the last three years if you look at where they've come from, three years ago, when the coaching staff got there to where they are right now. Just a tremendous job. They are coached very well.

"When you watch the film, in all three phases, the guys play extremely hard. Offensively, they run the football, they're going to get you in a lot of different formations, and they can control the game on the ground. But they are also good enough to throw. They're one of few teams, probably not many, that have started three quarterbacks this year and all three really have played well."

The Bearcats enter the game as six-point betting underdogs, with a 37% chance to win on ESPN's matchup predictor. Cincinnati is 81st in SP+, while the Jayhawks are 40th.

Cincinnati is 1-1 all-time against Kansas as the two programs meet for the first instance this century.

When UC Has The Ball

The Bearcats have a solid chance to post a nice point total on Saturday as Kansas enters with a mediocre, to rough defense giving up 26.2 points per game (68th nationally).

The run game must get going this week after stalling against West Virginia. Kansas is 85th or worse in yards per carry allowed (4.37), rushing yards per game allowed (161.27), and has given up 24 rushing touchdowns this season (115th). Look at the big plays and it's not any better having given up eight 30-plus yard runs this season (98th nationally).

It's been a rough go on the front as Kansas boasts strong run-defending edge rushers in Austin Booker and Hayden Hatcher, but looks like a turnstile on interior runs. Corey Kiner could make hay on his way to a 1,000-yard season if he hits the right beats.

Will Cincinnati complete enough passes to let the rushing attack find paydirt? That's the problem that hasn't been solved all season and a big hurdle in this game as Kansas boasts the third-best PFF team coverage grade in the Big 12 (87.3). They've combined for 12 interceptions and 29 pass breakups as a team this season, with seven high-snap players boasting 70-plus coverage grades (min. 400 snaps).

Linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties, every position group has players that can flip possessions. It's helped them escape the 133rd-ranked red zone defense in the country as the 115th red zone offense faces them next.

"They have one of the better defensive linemen, number nine [Austin Booker]," Satterfield said about the defense. "I think a great secondary of both safeties, they feel they tackle very, very well. Then both corners I think are very, very solid. Number three [Mello Dotson], he has four picks and two of them went back to the house. They took four touchdowns, including in the Oklahoma game and Iowa State game and they won both of those games. Credit to those coaches and staff on what they've been able to accomplish and what they've done."

Cincinnati has to cash in on its red zone chances or we know what will happen. The Jayhawks are allowing a TD on 66.7% of red zone trips (103rd nationally).

When Kansas Has The Ball

A Jayhawk buzzsaw, coming to Cincinnati.

Kansas has one of the better offenses in the Big 12, posting 32.2 points per game (36th nationally). All of this despite preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, Jalon Daniels, going down in the first month of the season.

Jason Bean (73.8 QBR) and Cole Ballard (63.9 QBR) have more than kept things on track as Kansas drives its offensive train on the ground (202.1 yards per game, 15th nationally). The disastrous QB run defense will be tested in a similar way to last week, no matter which passer gets the nod from HC Lance Leipold.

"Offensively, they run the football, they're going to get you in a lot of different formations, and they can control the game on the ground," Satterfield said about the offense. "But they are also good enough to throw. They're one of few teams, probably not many, that have started three quarterbacks this year and all three really have played well. I would suspect we'll see two quarterbacks in this game. Last week, I think Cole Ballard started and played the whole game. I do think the other quarterback that played, has played the last three or four weeks will end up playing as well. He can run, he's one of the faster guys on their team as well, but also can throw. They do a really nice job with that. Devin Neal is a guy; I think he's got over 1,100 yards rushing."

Kansas rolls with a 1-2 punch of Neal (1,103 yards with 13 TDs on 6.4 YPC) and Daniel Hishaw Jr. (574 yards with eight TDs on 5.2 YPC).

They've punished teams all season and stayed very efficient doing it—as the whole offense averages 6.71 yards per play (15th nationally).

Can UC's defensive depth hold up as the leaks spring larger in the back half of this season? It won't be easy, as Kansas is one of two Big 12 teams grading out 72 or better in run-blocking (72.3). The front does a great job of opening holes and the diverse trio of rushers is maximizing all those yards.

Negative plays just don't happen often for this unit as it ranks 27th nationally in sacks allowed (15) and 47th in total turnovers (14).

Prediction: 35-27 Kansas

I won't be picking UC to beat a legacy Big 12 program until they actually pull it off. The Bearcats looked outclassed and honestly done with the season on defense last week and I don't see how that stops against a team with the highest-graded offense in the conference (86.1).

Kansas posts nearly 300 yards rushing with four scores on the ground and one through the air, bringing the worst UC season this century to an end.

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