Game Preview: SMU Welcomes UC to Texas for AAC Clash

The Bearcats are 5-1 all-time against SMU.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Oct 20, 2022 10:20 AM EDT

CINCINNATI — Fresh off a nice mid-season bye week, the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1, 2-0) travel to Dallas, Texas, for a contest against the SMU Mustangs (3-3, 1-1).

The Bearcats are 3.5-point road favorites, and ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC winning 60.1% of the time. Luke Fickell's crew enters the game as Bill Connelly's 16th-ranked team in SP+, while SMU sits at No. 46. The Bearcats are 5-1 all-time against SMU, with the lone loss coming in overtime at Nippert Stadium in 2017.

Cincinnati has some injury questions to answer at quarterback and wide receiver as they face an SMU team that's beaten just one FBS opponent in 2022 after a 40-34 win over Navy last weekend.

"It's been a battle the last two times we've been there," Fickell said about the prior road trips to SMU. "We got to make sure we understand that we recognize that. We always are talking about the environments that we're going to walk into. I think that's important for us, when we're talking about the maturity of our team, understand what kind of environment you're gonna walk into.”

Check out our preview as UC tries to extend a conference win streak approaching its third birthday. All EPA figures via cfbgraphs.com.

Ground And Pound

Saturday is a great chance to keep the rushing momentum rolling for UC's offense. They are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry across their past two outings.

The offensive line went through some shuffling in the offseason, and it was going to take time to find the run plan that works best. Now they've discovered a key part of the equation.

“Consistency," Fickell said bluntly about why the group is playing better. "Now those guys have been consistent enough to work together for five-six weeks. Even in fall camp, we were still kind of figuring out what the five was going to be and had Jake Renfro in there, so you were moving other guys around. In that position, consistency and the ability to work together is so incredibly important. I hope and believe that that's what we've seen through the first six weeks of the season. Those guys continue to work together, be consistent with what we're doing. We also have to figure out what we do well, and that adds to it as well."

Even if the Bearcats were still struggling, SMU is the defense you get right against. The Mustangs can't stop a nosebleed on the ground.

SMU's defense is 120th nationally in rushing EPA/play and ranks 99th in yards per carry (4.5) while allowing 209 rushing yards per game (123rd). Diving deeper, the Mustangs are 88th in power success rate and 107th in stuff rate.

Cincinnati's stable of backs should all be able to feast in a game plan that should call for nearly 40 runs as they ended the USF game with (37 carries). Charles McClelland is averaging 6.6 yards per tote following his career-high 179-yard outing against the Bulls. He and Corey Kiner are the most important offensive weapons in this game given the health of Ben Bryant.

Kiner (4.9 YPC on 52 carries) is back in the lineup after healing his hand, while Ben Bryant's status isn't confirmed for Saturday. Could we see much more of Evan Prater and his rushing ability in this game due to Bryant's concussion? An answer will arrive on Saturday morning.

Reeling In Rice

The SMU offense is the only reason they've stayed competitive in 2022. Senior quarterback Tanner Mordecai is thriving in new head coach Rhett Lashlee's system. He's tallied 2,016 yards (11th nationally), 15 TDs (t-22nd), six INTs (t-90th) and a 69 QBR (43rd).

The Waco native's connection with Rashee Rice has been a lifeline for SMU. The senior wide receiver is the lead candidate for AAC Offensive Player of the Year with 49 catches (t-seventh), for 761 yards (fourth), and four touchdowns. Those first two figures are second and first in the AAC.

"I think it's a group offensively that's going to be very similar to what they have been, up-tempo, throwing the football," Fickell said about SMU's offense. "The quarterback is a really good football player, and I think that more than anything, they want to put the ball in his hands and let him kind of run the show and control the offense.

"We haven't studied last year's film as much just because of the new coaching staff. All those things kind of add up, but there are more similarities than there are differences. I'm sure the university knew that when they were hiring somebody because they had done a really good job and they had some really good pieces in place already.”

Insert the Blackcats front seven. Ivan Pace Jr. (t-AAC leading five sacks) and Jowon Briggs (three sacks) are just a couple of players notching great seasons thus far. UC leads the country in tackles for loss per game (9.7), is t-third in sacks per game (3.83), and is third in sack rate (10.9%).

SMU's competing front is built to slow them down as the Mustangs rank 13th in sack rate allowed (2.5%) and 17th in passing down sack rate (3.5%) for a total of eight sacks (33rd). Selling out to stop the pass is warranted on this road trip as UC needs its outside corners (Arquon Bush, Ja'Quan Sheppard) to shut down the powerful 6-foot-2, 203-pound Rice.

He typically lines up on the perimeter and is a handful in man coverage at his size and speed. Yet, Cincinnati is showing the right pass defense to handle him. Midway through the season, they rank 21st nationally in EPA/pass allowed and 13th in pass efficiency allowed (111.08).

Injury Haze

The bye week came at the perfect time for UC football as they've gone through a tougher injury stretch in 2022 than in 2021. Major players like Ben Bryant and Tyler Scott aren't locks to play on Saturday, although Bryant is back at practice.

“No, I mean, obviously, Ben Bryant has been able to get back. So, I think that you've got some uniqueness there, and Tyler Scott is a guy that we're hoping, throughout the rest of this week, will continue to get better and better and be able to play," Fickell said about the two stars. "As I said, you want those guys to be at their best in order to play, and the uniqueness that we've got is we have enough depth that you don't want to put a guy out there that's not going to be able to play and perform to the best of his ability. So, we'll see as we continue to push along but we don't have anything as of yet.”

Evan Prater is capable of stepping in and running the offense if Bryant can't make it through concussion protocol in time for the game. Plus, this is the perfect team to match up with for Prater's first start if that's the case. Put him in front of a rushing defense that can't stop running backs, let alone a running QB as well.

As for Scott, I only saw him in the rehab area at open practice this week, but he may have progressed enough throughout the week to suit up. If not look for Nick Mardner, Jadon Thompson, and the tight ends to get more targets alongside Tre Tucker. The sparkplug receiver praised a few other wideouts this week as well.

“One thing I talked about before this season is the depth we have at receiver," Tucker said. "I have to make sure it's business. Those guys are ready, they stepped up. How about Blue [Smith]’s first catch since my freshman year? I remember it was at Marshall. Just to see how far he came; the turnaround is crazy. I’m excited for him to go on the rest of the season. He’s one of those guys that are plugged in, and I think you’ll be seeing Drew Donley here soon too.”

The Bearcats are hoping that depth doesn't keep getting shallower throughout the rest of 2022.

Kickoff against SMU is slated for noon ET on ESPN. The game is available on fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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