Clemson Tigers FPI Ranking, Projected Record, ACC Odds, CFP Odds & More

On Thursday, ESPN released its 2026 FPI preseason rankings, including the 25 best teams, with only two ACC teams among the bunch, including the Clemson Tigers.

To add more context, ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) is a computer-generated forecast model that gauges a team's overall quality by crunching numbers such as scoring efficiency on both ends of the field, the number of key players returning, the caliber of incoming recruits and how the program has performed over time.

Last season, Clemson finished as the No. 31 team in the rankings and had an FPI of 9.5. The Tigers were the fourth-ranked team in the ACC, trailing Louisville (28), SMU (23) and Miami (5).

That said, let's take a closer look at where the Tigers ranked heading into this season.

Ranking

Clemson comes in at the No. 19 spot in the preseason ESPN FPI ranking and is the second-ranked ACC team, trailing Miami at No. 7.

The program is surprisingly high, given Dabo Swinney and co. are coming off their worst season in 15 years, finishing 7-6 overall after initially holding College Football Playoff hopes sparked by an appearance the year prior.

The Tigers always seem to play better under lower expectations (ie, 2024), but this year they don't get that shield, not after an offseason that brought in more than 10 transfers and kept much of their top talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Projected Record

Clemson is expected to finish with an 8-4 overall record with a 89.3% chance to win six games. The projection is fairly accurate, as many have the Tigers finishing around 8-4 to 10-2.

While the FPI has the program ranked sixth in the ACC in strength of schedule, they’ll still have some tough games throughout the year, including against LSU, Cal, Miami and South Carolina — all of which boast immensely talented quarterbacks.

Even the Virginia Tech Hokies could put up a good fight with the Tigers, as the program now features veteran head coach James Franklin and redshirt sophomore quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, who threw for a career-high 260 yards in a 22-10 Pinstripe Bowl win over Clemson last season.

The best way the Tigers could kick off their season is with a win over the Tigers in Baton Rouge, as it could set the standard for a bounce-back year.

ACC Odds

Clemson holds only a 9.5% chance of winning the conference and the third-best odds of winning the ACC, according to the FPI ranking. The Tigers trail Miami, which has the best odds in the nation of winning its conference (48.4%), and SMU, which has an 11.1% chance. The only other program in the conference with a chance over 5% is Louisville, at 8.1%.

College Football Playoff Odds

Despite coming off a down year and holding under a 10% chance of winning the ACC, the Tigers still sit at 21.1% odds of making the College Football Playoff, trailing only Miami, which has the sixth-best odds nationally (61.4%). SMU and Louisville are just behind the Tigers, with the Mustangs holding a 18.5% chance and the Cardinals sitting at a 13.8% chance.

Nevertheless, these odds need to be taken with a grain of salt, since we all remember how high the expectations were for the Tigers heading into last year, and how far short they fell.

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