Big 12 Tournament Projects Difficult Path for Colorado

The Colorado Buffaloes have had an up and down season and find themselves as the No. 11 seed in the Big 12 conference as of now. With the Buffs on the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble, they will likely need to win the Big 12 tournament.

Feb 14, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Tad Boyle looks on during the second half against the BYU Cougars at the Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

March Madness is right around the corner and conference tournaments getting closer to tipping off. If the season were to end today, where would the Colorado Buffaloes be seeded in the Big 12 conference tournament?

Colorado Buffaloes No. 11 Seed in Big 12

Feb 25, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard Isaiah Johnson (2) during the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

If the season ended now, Colorado would be the No. 11 seed in the 2026 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament. The Buffaloes have an overall record of 16-12 and are 6-9 in Big 12 play. Colorado is winners’ of their past two games with home victories over the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Kansas State Wildcats. 

Their next game is arguably their toughest of the entire season when they go on the road to take on the Houston Cougars on Saturday, Feb. 28. The Cougars are the current No. 3 seed in the Big 12 and are ranked as the No. 5 team in the country according to the most recent AP Top 25 Poll. 

Feb 25, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard Barrington Hargress (24) controls the ball in the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

If Colorado were to wind up with the No. 11 seed in the Big 12 tournament, they would not earn a bye and have to play the No. 14 seed Baylor Bears in round one. The winner would then take on the No. 6 seeded UCF Knights in round two. If the Buffs were to win both of these games, three more games likely against three of the highest seeds in the conference would still stand in front of them to win the conference tournament.  

For Colorado, they will need to go on a deep run if not win the whole Big 12 tournament to have a shot of earning a spot in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

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Colorado Buffaloes Off Bubble Watch

Feb 11, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Tad Boyle reacts to Colorado Buffaloes center Fawaz Ifaola (25) after he received a technical foul in the second half of the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images | Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

Most bracket projections and bubble watches don’t have Colorado near the tournament field. Their struggles in quad 1 games and having a bad quad 3 loss on their resume is not doing them any favors. Here is the Buffs’ resume in quad 1, 2, 3, and 4 games heading into their final three games of the regular season. 

Q1: 1-8
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 4-0

Colorado's struggles to win in quad 1 is one thing but dropping a quad 3 game is another thing. Those two things combined will likely be the reason for them not making the 68-team NCAA Tournament field. The Buffs have yet to pick up a signature win. 

Their lone quad 1 win was a road win over the 14-14 Arizona State Sun Devils who are currently the No. 12 seed in the Big 12. Furthermore, Colorado has a glaring stain on their resume with a quad 3 loss suffered at home to the Northern Colorado Bears. 

For Colorado to get in the mix for a potential at-large bid in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, they will need to win out in the regular season and go on a deep run in the Big 12 tournament. Good wins severely lack on their resume and if they end the season with 13 losses, they must beat some tournament bound teams or it will be a second straight season without dancing for the men’s team in Boulder.