Prediction For Must-Win Game Between Colorado and Baylor

All some teams need is a little shake.

Colorado Buffaloes basketball coach Tad Boyle grabbed his vets by the ears last Sunday, surprisingly starting four freshmen against TCU, and it sparked a tremendous win. The effort stopped a six-game losing streak that has the Colorado Buffaloes' minds reset for a run through February, and a road trip to the Baylor Bears (12-9, 2-7 Big 12) is next this Wednesday.

Colorado Visits Baylor After Big Win

Feb 1, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Tad Boyle reacts in the first half against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs at the CU Events Center. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Colorado's youthful energy was more than enough to top a dreary Horned Frogs squad at home. The Buffs (13-9, 3-6 Big 12) had their best defensive performance of the season, allowing the fewest points (61) and tying for the lowest field goal percentage (33) while putting up 87 with ease.

It was the Buffaloes' third straight win over TCU, but it was by far the most dominant. A motivated returning forward in Sebastian Rancik and a gleaming freshman guard in Josiah Sanders combined for 10 of a 12-0 run that thrust Colorado into the driver's seat late in the first half.

Defense hammered down the Horned Frogs throughout the second half, leading to an affirmative 17-4 run via six different Buffs. Star TCU forward David Punch scored just a single point in the closing frame, eight total.

Rancik and guard Isaiah Johnson had their usual production under unusual circumstances, leading Colorado with 17 and 16 points, respectively. But Sunday's top story was Sanders, guard Jalin Holland and center Fawaz Ifaola getting their first starts as freshmen.

Feb 1, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard Josiah Sanders (5) shoots the ball in the second half against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs at the CU Events Center. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The youngsters were ready. Sanders had 12 points and a team-high six assists, along with a two-way intensity the Buffs have needed all season. Holland pitched in five points, five rebounds and four assists, while Ifaola had a solid six points and six boards.

Now making a pit stop in Waco, the Buffaloes could look to keep the iron hot and roll with youth again. It will be tougher than running in front of a cozy Boulder crowd, but if it isn't broken, don't expect Boyle to fix it.

Individually, Ifaola has the best chance of starting long-term. Center Elijah Malone hasn't fulfilled any of the Buffaloes' desires since transferring in two offseasons ago. The former NAIA star's experiment might be over, while "Tacko" is a wild card but already bests Malone in transition and on the glass.

The Buffaloes beat Baylor in their only meeting last season, a 76-74 thriller in Boulder. However, the Bears returned none of the participants in that contest and will have home-court advantage this time around, where they've lost just once this season against unranked opponents.

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Baylor Bumbling In Big 12

Jan 31, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Scott Drew talks to Baylor Bears guard Cameron Carr (43) during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Hope Coliseum. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Led by longtime coach Scott Drew, BU enters Wednesday worse off than the metrics show. The Bears are at the bottom of the Big 12 standings but sit at eighth in KenPom (51) and ninth in NET rankings (55).

Four of their seven conference losses came to teams currently ranked in the nation's top 15, though the other three came to TCU (twice) and Cincinnati. Much of the Bears' inconsistency has been due to poor defense, as they rank 10th in the Big 12 in points allowed and give up the second-most offensive rebounds.

However, Baylor is the conference's second-best team at collecting offensive rebounds, as well as third in total boards per game. BU ranks fifth in field-goal percentage, sixth in points per game and maintains. a +8.6 point differential average despite all the losses.

Jan 31, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Baylor Bears guard Obi Agbim (5) celebrates after a made three point basket during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Hope Coliseum. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Redshirt sophomore guard Cameron Carr leads the sleuth, averaging 19.4 points and 5.7 rebounds a night on 52/40/77 shooting splits. The Tennessee transfer notched his second career double-double to help the Bears capture their most impressive win of the year last Saturday, 63-53 over West Virginia in Morgantown.

Guard Toude Yessoufou is another one to watch, averaging 17.3 points and 5.8 rebounds as a freshman. He's tallied eight performances of 20+ points this season and is a projected first-round pick in this year's NBA draft.

Wednesday's tip-off between the Buffs and Bears from Foster Pavilion in Waco is set for 6 p.m. MT. The game will be streamed live on Peacock.

Colorado at Baylor Betting

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Baylor is a -305 favorite against Colorado, with a predicted margin of 6.5 points. The over/under is set at 160.5.

Colorado at Baylor Prediction

Feb 1, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes forward Sebastian Rancik (7) and members of the bench react to an three throw attempt in the second half against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs at the CU Events Center. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Both teams are coming off much-needed wins and will play intently, but I trust Baylor more in Waco. Colorado's youth may not have the same success away from home, especially on defense, and BU is simply due. The Bears will win a fun one, 82-77.

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