What the Advanced Analytics Say About Colorado vs. Houston

The Colorado Buffaloes have newfound momentum that ignited during the week of Veterans Day 2026. That's via the recruiting trail, with a decommit flipping back (tackle Li'Marcus Jones) and a newcomer to the 2027 class (cornerback Tavarren Wade).

Colorado recreated excitement for its fans there. But a massive hurdle set for Nov. 13 awaits, with 14th-ranked Houston coming to Folsom Field. Here's what the analytics say about CU.

Closer Look at Football Power Index Numbers for Colorado

Colorado Buffaloes Oklahoma State Cowboys Big 12 Conference College Football Recruiting Houston Cougars Deion Sanders — Colorado coach Deion Sanders stands on the field as the team warms up before a college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (OSU) and the Colorado Buffaloes at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Colorado sits last among Big 12 Conference teams in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) rankings. The national outlet hands the Buffaloes a -1.8 FPI, making them the only team among conference representatives with a negative rating.

Colorado fell to 74th in the FPI too, which again makes CU the worst-ranked team in the Big 12 per this metric. And the chances for Colorado to make a bowl game didn't receive a high number from ESPN too.

Colorado not only received a 2.0 percent chance to win out, but that same number is attached to its chances of reaching six wins. Once again, the Buffaloes head into this contest with a 3-6 mark.

The Buffaloes aren't officially out of bowl contention. Some Colorado players, including wide receiver DeAndre Moore Jr., sound like they're still visualizing ending the season with a bowl game. But once again, Colorado must win its next three games, starting with the toughest opponent still left on the Buffaloes' schedule in Houston.

Where Houston Stands in Football Power Index Rankings

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Colorado Buffaloes Cincinnati Bearcats Houston Cougars Big 12 Conference DeAndre Moore Jr. College Football Playoff — Nov 7, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars fans celebrate with players after the game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Houston has trended in a far different direction under coach Willie Fritz. The Cougars have the Big 12's fifth-best RPI with a 13.9 mark.

Furthermore, Houston ranks 21st in the ESPN RPI. And the Cougars have a 25.9 percent chance to win the remainder of their schedule. But Houston is also visualizing something way larger: the College Football Playoff.

The Cougars' chances there sit at 21.6 percent, handing them the fourth best odds within the Big 12. Landing in the 12-team playoff would mark the first time Houston has ever competed for the national title. And that includes before moving into the Big 12 during the last realignment cycle of 2023.

But Houston still faces its own uphill climb to crack the playoff field. No. 2 Utah remains undefeated and looks very much like a lock for the CFP, especially if the Utes run the table and win out. BYU is in strong shape too at No. 10. Meanwhile, reigning Big 12 champion Texas Tech remains in the hunt for both the conference championship and making it back to the playoff.

What a Colorado Upset Does

Isaac Wilson Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State Sun Devils Deion Sanders Big 12 Conference College Football Playoff Houston — Arizona State Julian Hugo (98) rushes Colorado quarterback Isaac Wilson (16) during a game at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, on Nov. 7, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Colorado pulling the stunner in Boulder will hand Sanders his second victory over a top-25 team in the last two seasons. The Buffaloes stunned a No. 22-ranked Iowa State team one year ago at the same venue, which became their best win in a 3-9 season.

Houston presents a far different animal, especially with talented quarterback and former five-star Conner Weigman leading the Cougars. Houston presents a loaded defensive front, too, that can wreak havoc in front of quarterback Isaac Wilson.

Perhaps, though, Colorado's new recruiting momentum ignites some field enthusiasm.

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