What the Advanced Analytics Say About Colorado vs. Baylor

The Colorado Buffaloes are expected to head to Baylor with some missing faces.

Not because of injuries either. Coach Deion Sanders sent some of his own players packing over what he deemed was conduct detrimental to the team.

So Coach Prime dropped the hammer on his roster following the 41-7 defeat at the hands of Northwestern. And unfortunately for him and the Buffaloes, the advanced analytics don't favor Colorado.

Colorado Massive Underdog for Baylor Showdown

Colorado Buffaloes Coach Deion Sanders Leads Team Folsom Field Baylor Bears Practice Schedule College Football — Deion Sanders leads the Colorado Buffaloes onto Folsom Field before their 2025 game against Georgia Tech. Sanders is adjusting Colorado’s practice and sleep schedule before this year’s night-game rematch in Atlanta. | Matthew Jonas/Daily Camera

According to ESPN FPI, Colorado has a 19.7-percent to beat Baylor, compared to 80.3-percent for the Bears to beat the Buffs. Baylor ranks No. 38 in the FPI standings with Colorado coming in at No. 70.

Worse for Colorado, though, is Baylor walks in as a 10.-point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, to top the Buffaloes. This despite quarterback DJ Lagway not officially becoming cleared to play for the Sept. 26 contest.

DJ Lagway Baylor Bears Louisiana Tech Bulldogs McLane Stadium Big 12 Conference Deion Sanders Colorado Buffaloes — Sep 19, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) during warmups before the game against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Lagway needed to sit out the last two Baylor contests against Louisiana Tech and Prairie View A&M, giving way to Nate Bennett. Except Bennett looked stellar in both outings: Hitting 562 yards, six touchdowns and throwing just two interceptions.

Oddsmakers likely feel comfortable about Baylor's quarterback depth compared to Colorado. Especially with Bennett leading this offense to efficient numbers post Lagway.

But the Florida quarterback transfer is dynamic when he's on the field. He possesses one of the nation's strongest arms and flashed that trait in the SEC before. Lagway can also extend plays with his legs, so Colorado must prepare for its second straight dual-threat passer.

Week 4 Takes on Emotional Tone for Colorado

Colorado Buffaloes Deion Sanders Folsom Field Big 12 Ben'Jarvius Shumaker Coderro McDaniel Jaiden Kelly-Murray Gabe Jenkins — Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders on the sidelines in the second quarter against the Arizona Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Once again, Sanders and Colorado are dealing with the wrong sense of scrutiny.

Sanders' actions involving dismissing current players has painted the picture that the coach is already losing control of his team. It's brand new fuel for the high number of critics who have come after Sanders since his arrival to Boulder.

But Sanders isn't shying away from his decision. He told reporters during his Sept. 22 press conference that he gave those former players multiple chances. Yet ultimately felt they pushed their own luck and Sanders needed to eliminate the distractions.

Deion Sanders Colorado Buffaloes Northwestern Wildcats Baylor Bears Dave Aranda Julian Lewis Nate Bennett — Sep 19, 2026; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders takes the field with his team for warmups before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Colorado now sounds like a refocused group ahead of facing Baylor. That includes starting safety Naeten Mitchell delivering this bold prediction during his media session on Sept. 23.

"I feel like it’s gonna be a great game for the defense (versus Baylor)," Mitchell told reporters. “We know what we have so we’re gonna show it this week.”

What's at Stake for Colorado Before Baylor Game

Julian Lewis Colorado Buffaloes Northwestern Wildcats Big 12 Conference Dave Aranda Baylor Bears DJ Lagway — Sep 19, 2026; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Julian Lewis (10) runs with the ball against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Colorado can make a huge early statement here now that Big 12 play has arrived.

Knocking off Baylor can rise as Colorado's biggest upset of the young 2026 season. Even larger than the week one contest against Georgia Tech, given that the Buffaloes are a more massive underdog here.

Saturday also presents a strong redemption opportunity for quarterback Julian Lewis, who delivered his most turnover prone game. Lewis also earns a chance to lift the Buffaloes out of this predicament involving overcoming a 34-point loss and seeing his teammates leave the program.

But lastly, Colorado can improve to 3-1 before hosting reigning Big 12 champ Texas Tech to kickoff October.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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