3 Ways Duke Can Beat St. John's in Sweet 16

The 1-seed Duke Blue Devils are seeking to advance to their third consecutive Elite Eight under head coach Jon Scheyer. The Blue Devils will face 5-seed St. John's on Friday at Capital One Arena in the Sweet 16. Tip-off is slated for 7:10 pm ET.

Duke took down 16-seed Siena 71-65 in the Round of 64 and 9-seed TCU 81-58 in the Round of 32 to advance to the second weekend. The Johnnies defeated 12-seed Northern Iowa and 4-seed Kansas in a thriller to move on.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer talks with an official during a second round game against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs at the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Sophomore center Patrick Ngongba is back in the lineup after missing five games, but he only played 13 minutes against the Horned Frogs. Junior Caleb Foster remains on the injury report with a fractured right foot, but Scheyer has hinted at at least some hope the veteran returns to the lineup against the Red Storm.

St. John's is red hot, having won 21 of its last 22 games; however, Duke is likely the best opponent it has faced all year. Let's run through three ways the Blue Devils can take down the Red Storm to advance.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) moves the ball against Texas Christian University Horned Frogs forward Micah Robinson (5) during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Dominate the Paint

St. John's is an elite defensive team, sitting eighth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 25th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense (47.2), according to KenPom. However, in its losses, it has lost the paint battle consistently, and the interior is where the Blue Devils make their money.

In the Johnnies' six losses this season, they have lost the paint battle by a combined margin of 238-160 (-78). Against a lengthy and physical Blue Devils club, this poses issues.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Texas Christian University Horned Frogs guard Liutauras Lelevicius (3) atempts to block a shot by Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba (21) during the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Now, St. John's is an extremely physical club as well, but Duke ranks fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (38.3), seventh nationally in two-point field goal percentage (60.3), and 19th nationally in average two-point attempt distance. If Duke controls the interior, that likely equals a win.

Mar 20, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; St. John's Red Storm forward Bryce Hopkins (23) reacts in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Run Bryce Hopkins off the Three-Point Line

Ironically enough, the Red Storm have actually lost the paint battle in both of their NCAA Tournament games by a combined margin of 70-60. However, a much-increased three-point shot from St. John's has contributed to that.

Combined through the Johnnies' two tournament games, they have knocked down the three-ball at a combined 21-of-64 (32.8%) clip. St. John's has knocked down double-digit threes in both contests, which it hadn't previously done since Jan. 10.

Mar 20, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; St. John's Red Storm forward Bryce Hopkins (23) controls the ball against Northern Iowa Panthers forward Leon Bond III (35) in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Much of that production has to do with Bryce Hopkins. Despite the senior shooting just 34.8% from the perimeter on the year, the 6'7" forward has shot 8-of-12 (75%) from beyond the arc thus far through the NCAA Tournament. Running Hopkins off the three-point line will take a lot of that volume away.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) reacts after a play during the second half against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Limit Turnovers

On the campaign, Duke averages 10.6 turnovers a game and ranks eighth in the ACC with a 1.25 turnover margin. But so far in the Big Dance, Duke has struggled to take care of the ball.

Duke has surrendered 25 turnovers over its last two games, including a hefty 17 against TCU that turned into 20 points for the Horned Frogs. The Blue Devils have only forced 14 turnovers combined on their opponents in the NCAA Tournament.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) and guard Cayden Boozer (2) reach for the ball in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

St. John's led the Big East this season with a 3.33 turnover margin while forcing 13.7 a night. The Blue Devils don't have to necessarily turn the Red Storm over at a high clip, but must take care of the basketball themselves.