Best (And Worst) Case Scenario for Duke's 2026 Offense

Analyzing the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Blue Devils' offense in 2026 could help temper expectations for the program ahead of the regular season.

Duke Blue Devils tight end Jeremiah Hasley (85) catches a pass Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Duke Blue Devils offense could be one of fascination as the opening weekend of the college football season inches closer.

Head coach Manny Diaz has been working hard on the recruiting trail to secure the future of Blue Devils football. However, one of the challenges his program will face is the uncertainty around its offense, a unit once led by former quarterback Darian Mensah before Miami snatched him in the transfer portal (with a legal battle that resulted in a settlement).

Oct 18, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz looks on prior to the first half of the game against Florida State at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Duke had a top-20 offense in 2025, averaging 34.6 points per game, as offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer helped the program win its first outright ACC Championship in over six decades. Now, with a new quarterback, wide receivers, and offensive linemen, the stakes are higher for Brewster to keep his offense a high-scoring unit in 2026.

Let's look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Blue Devils offense as the summer months are underway.

Best-Case Scenario — Duke Maintains Top-20 Scoring Unit

Nov 29, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Realistically, there is likely to be regression after losing an NFL-caliber quarterback in Mensah and his top pass-catcher, Cooper Barkate. However, there is reason for optimism despite these big losses on offense.

San Jose State transfer signal-caller Walker Eget played on a torn ACL last season, and when healthy, showcased a live arm to spray passes to all three levels of the field, a must in Brewer's offense. Penn transfer Jared Richardson and Charlotte acquisition Javen Nicholas provide Eget with intriguing wideouts who could turn the tide in the passing game, especially with an explosive talent like Nicholas.

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils tight end Jeremiah Hasley (85) celebrates a touchdown in the first quarter against the Virginia Cavaliers during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Running back Nate Sheppard and tight end Jeremiah Hasley are mainstays, and transfer offensive tackles Nick Del Grande and Braden Miller could ease the pain of losing Brian Parker II to the NFL Draft. There is still talent in all phases for Duke to work with, and the best-case for everyone is that the new additions and mainstays help keep the offense the high-scoring unit that got them to nine wins in 2025.

Worst-Case Scenario — Offensive Regression Worse Than Anyone Could Imagine

Nov 2, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz watches from the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

In the transfer portal era, teams whiff on additions all the time, and it can hurt them in the short- and long-term. We've seen it happen with Duke's archrival, North Carolina, last season, when 70 new players were added amid a constant carousel in their offense, and the Blue Devils hope they can avoid a similar fate with their current offense.

However, the scenario must be considered. Again, regression is expected, and it would be surprising if Duke can maintain its top-20 scoring offense from a year ago, but it could be much worse than anyone thinks.

Nov 30, 2024; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz on the sideline against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Eget could bust, leaving an inexperienced Dan Mahan to pick up the tab; the offensive line suffers in the loss of key starters up front, while the newly-added wide receivers fail to meet expectations, leaving Hasley and Sheppard to pick up the load as the two most talented players on offense. The offense regresses outside the Top 50 in scoring per game, putting the Blue Devils in a tough spot this season.