Duke's Case for Preseason No. 1 With Other Top Contender

Heading into the 2026-27 college basketball season, Duke and Florida probably have the top two rosters in the country, and rightfully so.

Both Jon Scheyer and Todd Golden did fantastic jobs utilizing winning roster-building tactics in today's era of college basketball: retention and the transfer portal. But which of the two programs will be ranked No. 1 in the AP preseason poll?

The best part about this discussion is that we will get a matchup between the Blue Devils and Gators on Dec. 1 in the 2026 ACC/SEC Challenge. In the meantime, let's make the case for which program should earn the No. 1 ranking when the regular season begins.

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer looks on from the bench against the UConn Huskies during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Case for Duke

Scheyer and Co. probably couldn't have had much more of a successful offseason.

It starts with who Duke brought back. Three starters from last season's team that earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and won the ACC regular-season and tournament titles are returning: Dame Sarr, Caleb Foster, and Patrick Ngongba. Additionally, Duke returns rotation guard Cayden Boozer and redshirt freshman Sebastian Wilkins.

Almost every key rotation piece Scheyer and Co. could've brought back, they did. Sarr is turning into one of the biggest breakout candidates in America, Foster is the Type A lead guard for a championship team, and Ngongba will be the defensive anchor for a squad that has the personnel to be the best defensive team in the sport.

Mar 26, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba (21) dribbles during a practice session ahead of the east regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Beyond the retention, Duke brought in two stellar transfers in John Blackwell (Wisconsin) and Drew Scharnowski (Belmont). Blackwell was one of the best scoring guards in the country last season and will be the true No. 1 option for the first time in his career.

Scharnowski is an extremely physical and versatile defender with great rebounding and passing ability for a big man. Think of Scharnowski like a Maliq Brown replacement on defense but with more two-way versatility.

Belmont's Drew Scharnowski (11) blocks a shot by Bradley's Jaquan Johnson in the second half of their college basketball game Monday, Feb. 9, 2026 at Carver Arena in Peoria. Johnson was fouled before the block. The Braves defeated the Bruins 95-84. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

On top of all that, the Blue Devils are bringing in one of the top high school recruiting classes in the nation. Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje could be a focal point right away, but Duke will have its other incoming elite recruits playing complementary roles.

What stands out most about Duke is its depth. If you took its sixth to 10th men and put them into a starting lineup, it could arguably push being a top 25 team in the sport. Additionally, Duke might be the biggest team in the country, with shooting, experience, and pieces that fit on paper.

Average height for the 2026-27 #DukeMBB roster is 79 in. (6'7")

Tallest team in the country last season, per KenPom, was Illinois at an avg. height of 80 in.
— hughstraine (@HughStraine) July 23, 2026

Scheyer has won back-to-back ACC regular-season and tournament crowns and has reached two Elite Eights and a Final Four, but this is his best roster throughout his tenure at Duke.

Feb 7, 2026; College Station, Texas, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden reacts during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Reed Arena. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Case for Florida

Now, in terms of the No. 1 ranking, I would personally hand it to Florida, and I would be shocked if the Gators aren't ranked at the top when the preseason poll arrives. The reason being this Duke team is new, meaning one would be somewhat betting on its success. With Florida, this roster has already done it.

Golden is bringing back six of his top seven scorers from a team that won the SEC, which might have been the best conference in the sport last season, by three games, and earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Mar 14, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Florida Gators center Rueben Chinyelu (9) lays the ball in against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Those returners are headlined by All-American Thomas Haugh, SEC Defensive Player of the Year Rueben Chinyelu, and SEC Sixth Man of the Year Urban Klavzar, along with Alex Condon, Isaiah Brown, and Boogie Fland.

Now, in saying one has to "bet" on Duke's pieces fitting together, which will almost definitely happen, this Florida roster has already reached the pinnacle.

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Denzel Aberdeen (1) drives to the basket against Santa Clara Broncos guard Sash Gavalyugov (2) during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As long as Denzel Aberdeen maintains his eligibility for the 2026-27 season, the projected starting five for the Gators could be Fland, Aberdeen, Haugh, Condon, and Chinyelu. That means every player in UF's starting five has either won a National Championship with the team, was there when it was a 1-seed a year ago, or both.

Duke is bringing back a ton of experience from a 1-seed as well, but potentially four of Florida's starters, along with Klavzar and Brown off the bench, were part of the team that won the 2025 national title. That's pretty difficult to argue with at the end of the day.

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