Why This Unexpected Team Is Duke’s Biggest National Title Threat

The No. 1-ranked Duke Blue Devils are, as it currently stands, the team to beat in college basketball. The Blue Devils are currently the No. 1 team in the Associated Press Top 25, the NCAA NET Rankings, KenPom, and are the top projected overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

And for good reason. Head coach Jon Scheyer gave his squad a gauntlet of a non-conference slate, and the Blue Devils looked like the better team in almost every one of those games. Duke has also been cruising through the rest of the ACC as of late.

Mar 2, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) reacts with teammates during the second half against the NC State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils are currently riding a seven-game win streak, winning those games by an average margin of 23.4 points. The only one of those contests that the Blue Devils did not win by at least 13 points was the one matchup that took place out of conference when Duke took down then-No. 1 Michigan in Washington, D.C., 68-63.

Generally, the top teams in college basketball are considered to be No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Arizona, and No. 3 Michigan. In practically every metric, those are the top three clubs, and thus those are the teams viewed as the perennial National Championship favorites.

Feb 24, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer claps against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

However, the Blue Devils' biggest threat to win a National Championship could be a team no one saw coming, and also a team Duke has already met.

Florida head coach Todd Golden reacts during the second half of an NCAA mens basketball game against Mississippi State at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactek arena in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Florida Could Be Duke’s Biggest Threat To Cut Down Nets in Early April

Over the back half of the regular season, Todd Golden's Gators have cruised to the No. 5 ranking in the AP Top 25, with a complete resurgence of a season after it looked like Florida might be the most disappointing team in college basketball.

Duke has already faced Florida this season, taking down the Gators 67-66 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Gators dropped to 5-3 on the season after falling to the Blue Devils, then to 5-4 after losing to then-No. 5 UConn in the very next game.

Florida forward Thomas Haugh (10) gets pressure from Arkansas guard D.J. Wagner (21) during the second half of an NCAA basketball game at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactek arena in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, February 28, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Florida Has Come Back From Disappointment

With lackluster guard play for a good part of the non-con slate, it looked like Florida was in for a national title hangover. But since conference play has begun, it has looked like one of the most dominant teams in college basketball.

Since beginning the season at 5-4, the Gators are 19-2 with six wins over ranked opponents. Florida is currently riding a 10-game win streak, sitting atop the SEC standings at 15-2.

The Gators boast one of the best frontcourts in college basketball, and with guards Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee hitting the ground running through SEC action, Florida looks like a team no one wants to see in the big dance.

Florida is up to No. 4 at KenPom as one of the best paint-playing and rebounding teams in college basketball. It's tough to beat a team twice in a season, especially an elite one, and Duke fans should want to avoid Florida in the postseason.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook and X for the latest news.