Forecasting Duke's Bowl Placement After Week 13 Win

The Blue Devils finally secured bowl eligibility after taking down rival North Carolina.

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) runs downfield during the first half against The North Carolina Tarat Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

Duke stormed into Chapel Hill and took down Bill Belichick and North Carolina, 32-25, after a trick play in the fourth quarter allowed the Blue Devils to win the game.

Kicker Todd Pelino took the ball on a fake field goal attempt and ran 26 yards to pick up a first down, which resulted in a one-yard touchdown run by Anderson Castle to take the lead, and the Blue Devils never looked back.

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils kicker Todd Pelino (29) is pushed out of bounds on a fake field goal during the second half at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

Manny Diaz finally got his defense to step up at the end of the game, getting pressure on UNC quarterback Gio Lopez on the final drive to force a stop and seal the victory.

Darian Mensah had a decent bounce back after two awful showings against UConn and Virginia. He completed 20-of-33 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown. There was a marked improvement for him, and he found new weapons like tight end Jeremiah Hasley, who made seven catches for 85 yards and a touchdown.

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils tight end Jeremiah Hasley (85) scores a touchdown during the first half against the North Carolina Tar at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

Duke also committed to the run game early on and stayed with it throughout the contest. Nate Sheppard received early carries and picked up 90 yards on a season-high 22 carries. He also made one catch for 18 yards and caught a two-point conversion.

Anderson Castle also rushed for 49 yards and scored three times against the Tar Heels.

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils wide receiver Cooper Barkate (18) breaks a tackle during the second half at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

Duke's big rivalry win gave Diaz's team its sixth victory of the season, finally making the Blue Devils qualified for bowl season. It's odd that the Blue Devils just earned bowl eligibility while the surrounding noise has been about a potential ACC title game appearance, but such is life in the ACC this season.

We took a look around the nation to see where outlets have the Blue Devils playing during bowl season. Here's what we found:

National Bowl Projections

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Anderson Castle (4) celebrates after a touchdown during the second half at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

CBS Sports: Military Bowl | Duke vs South Florida (Dec. 27)

College Football News: Military Bowl | Duke vs Navy (Dec. 27)

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils wide receiver Sahmir Hagans (2) is tackled after a catch by North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Jaiden Patterson (18) during the second half at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

ESPN No. 1: Military Bowl | Duke vs East Carolina (Dec. 27)

ESPN No. 2: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Missouri (Jan. 2)

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils wide receiver Jayden Moore (8) follows a blocker downfield during the first half against the North Carolina Tar at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

On SI: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs UConn (Jan. 2)

USA Today: Birmingham Bowl | Duke vs Memphis (Dec. 29)

Bowl Prediction

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Anderson Castle (4) celebrates a touchdown with offensive lineman Brian Parker II (53) during the second half against North Carolina at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Missouri (Jan. 2)

This is still a lofty projection and probably on the high end of what is possible for the Blue Devils, but the ACC is a complete mess.

Duke's defense is a major concern this week against Wake Forest, which has a strong running game. The Blue Devils could match them on the ground, but ultimately, if Duke wins this game, fourth or fifth place in the ACC is reasonable. That could put the Blue Devils in a spot to play on Jan. 2 against an SEC program.

Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) scores during the second half at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

The door is still slightly ajar for the Blue Devils to make it to the ACC title game, which raises the ceiling for their bowl hopes, but a lot would need to happen for that to happen, including a win over the Demon Deacons.

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