FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 12 (Week 12)

After each week, we will review each conference and examine which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2025 FCS playoffs with 11 automatic bids (conference winners) and 13 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs, but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the postseason.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 12.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana, Montana State

Montana avoided a huge upset against Eastern Washington, while Montana State dominated Weber State in another blowout win. Both teams are locks to make the field regardless of how they finish, but the remaining games will have huge seeding implications. The Grizzlies are probably a lock for a Top 8 seed, while the Bobcats can secure their spot with a win over UC Davis this weekend. If the Bobcats can take of business, it sets up a showdown in the Cat-Griz where the winner is likely a lock for the No. 2 seed and home field advantage through the playoffs.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: UC Davis, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State

UC Davis rebounded with a nice road win over Idaho, moving the Aggies to 7-2 with quality wins over NAU and Southern Utah. The committee kept UC Davis in the Top 10 last week, but the Aggies have a difficult matchup against Montana State this weekend. A win over the Bobcats would move UC Davis into Top 4-6 seed consideration. A loss could put them in a tricky spot depending on how the rest of the field performs. If UC Davis loses its next two games, a 7-4 record would certainly not be a lock for the field.

Northern Arizona has one of the best shots out of the remaining Big Sky teams to make the field, which started with an impressive win over Northern Colorado. The Lumberjacks lack any ranked wins, making their next two games against Cal Poly and Weber State must wins. NAU has quality wins over Southern Utah, UIW, and Idaho State, but have failed to be competitive against the top teams on its schedule. Even with two wins, an 8-4 NAU should still be nervous on Selection Sunday.

Sacramento State has fought its way back into the playoff conversation, improving to 6-3 against the FCS. The Hornets have played excellent football the last few weeks, but still need to beat a feisty Idaho team and end the season with an upset over UC Davis to keep their postseason hopes alive. At 8-4, NAU's win over UC Davis would be better than any win for NAU, however, the loss to Cal Poly could be costly. Sacramento State also needs to hope there is no playoff chaos on the bubble.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: Monmouth, Rhode Island

There's a strong argument these teams could be moved up to "Lock" status, but we are pretty strict here about teams who are considered locks, including what happens if a team loses all of their remaining games. Rhode Island lacks a signature win, although New Hampshire is solid, but the loss to Brown taints the resume. A win over Maine this weekend would move the Rams into "Lock" status. They are also the favorite to secure the auto bid for the CAA.

Monmouth will also be a "Lock" with one more win, and the Hawks have a better resume than the Rams due to a head-to-head win over Villanova. The Hawks will end the season against two teams with a combined three wins, giving them an excellent chance to finish at 10-2 overall. It will be important to monitor the status of quarterback Derek Robertson. Monmouth hasn't looked the same without him, and if he's not back, will the committee view them the same? Both teams will have a difficult path to a Top 8 seed, but will land one of the other Top 16 seeds.

Work To Do: Villanova, Maine, New Hampshire, William & Mary

Villanova is in an excellent position despite the fact that the Wildcats only play 11 games. The Wildcats are 7-1 against the FCS, their only loss coming against Monmouth, but they hold wins over William & Mary and Elon. This weekend's game against Elon is going to be tricky, but this team has an excellent chance to finish 10-1 against the FCS, which should secure a Top 16 seed.

Maine is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, while New Hampshire kept its playoff hopes alive with a win over Monmouth. Both teams are now 6-4 overall, and have a shot to play their way into the field. Maine has the best shot as the Black Bears can still win the auto bid with a win over Rhode Island and New Hampshire. Both teams need to win out to have a chance to make the field.

William & Mary is the final playoff hopeful in the CAA, but its chances took a big hit after losing to New Hampshire. The Tribe have two winnable games left, but it's very likely that they won't have a win over a team with a winning record on the resume. They would still need a ton of help at 8-4.

Villanova Wildcats running back David Avit (24) | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Ivy League

Locks: None
Should Be In: Harvard

Harvard moves into the "Should Be In" tier after moving to 8-0 and have beaten every team by 17 points or more. The Crimson still needs to take care of business against Penn and Yale to secure the auto bid, but if they finish 10-0, they should earn a Top 8 seed. Even at 9-1, the Crimson would be in position to get an at-large bid.

Work To Do: Dartmouth, Yale

Yale stayed in the auto bid race with only one conference loss, and they have yet to play Harvard. The Bulldogs have played well, winning four straight games, but need to win out to secure the automatic bid. At this point, Dartmouth faces a challenging path forward and would need some assistance to stay on the bubble. An 8-2 Dartmouth would have a solid shot at getting an at-large spot due to non-conference wins over New Hampshire and potential NEC champion Central Connecticut State.

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State

North Dakota State picked up another ranked win over North Dakota, giving the Bison an incedible six ranked wins. The Bison moved to 10-0 overall and have the best resume in the country. You can go ahead and write the Bison in as the No. 1 overall seed. NDSU has an easy last two games against UNI and St. Thomas, while should give them a chance to get healthy before the playoffs.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Youngstown State, North Dakota, South Dakota State, Illinois State, South Dakota, Southern Illinois

For the first time this year, we have had to move a team down a tier. South Dakota State dropped back down to the "Work To Do" tier after three straight losses. The situation is starting to look desperate with games against Illinois State and North Dakota remaining. Splitting those games will get them into the field, while winning both would put them right back into the conversation for a Top 8-12 seed. If they were to lose both, it would put SDSU on a five-game losing streak and in a really tough spot on the bubble.

Speaking of North Dakota, the Hawks have quality wins over Youngstown State and Southern Illinois, but are only 6-4 with four losses by a combined 14 points. UND still needs to take care of business against Murray State and SDSU to feel safe on the bubble. At 7-5, UND would have a solid case to sneak into the field, but it'll be an uncomfortable Selection Sunday.

Youngstown State stormed back to defeat Southern Illinois last week, meaning the Penguins just need to avoid upsets in their final two games to secure their spot in the field. They don't have the strongest resume, but the eye test and their performance against top teams may earn them consideration for a Top 16 seed.

South Dakota is 7-4 overall with one game remaining against Southern Illinois. The Coyotes have a bye week during the final weekend of the regular season, meaning they need to beat SIU to secure their spot in the field. At 7-5, the Coyotes would have a shot due to wins over UND and SDSU, but could be on the outside looking in depending on what happens with the rest of the bubble.

As for Southern Illinois, the Salukis will be desperate over the next two weeks. At 6-4 overall, the Salukis will have to win their final two games to secure their spot in the field. Even at 7-5, the Salukis would only have six Division I wins, meaning they would likely be one of the first four teams out. Illinois State will play SDSU in Brookings this weekend, but likely only need to split their final two games to make the field at 8-4. If they drop both, the Redbirds would not have the resume to get an at-large at 7-5, but if they were to win both, a Top 16 seed could likely be in reach.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Central Connecticut State

Central Connecticut State looks to be in full control of the race for the NEC auto bid. The Blue Devils only need one win in their final two games to secure the outright conference title after Duquesne's loss to Long Island last weekend. The Blue Devils will play Duquesne this weekend.

OVC-Big South

Locks: Tennessee Tech

Tennessee Tech joins the field in "Lock" status with its 10th win last weekend. The Golden Eagles have looked less dominant offensively, but continue to win behind a suffocating defense. They will have their sights set on a Top 8 seed and potential first-round bye. The Golden Eagles will play Kentucky this weekend, but need to defeat UT Martin in two weeks to secure the auto bid.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: UT Martin, Gardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb barely remains on the bubble, but improved to 6-4 overall with a win over SEMO. Even if they win out, they would most likely need help to make it into the field as one of the last four teams. They do have a head-to-head win over Western Carolina, but that was before Taron Dickens returned.

UT Martin has no shot to earn an at-large bid, but remains in this section because the Skyhawks control their own destiny in the race for the auto bid. The Skyhawks will have to win out, including a win over Tennessee Tech in the final weekend of the regular season.

UT Martin quarterback Jase Bauer (8) | NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Patriot League

Locks: Lehigh

Lehigh moves into the "Lock" tier after improving to 10-0 overall with a win over Holy Cross. They've won by 20 or more points in their past five games, showing absolute dominance through Patriot League play. The Mountain Hawks don't have a ton of signature wins, but did beat two top Ivy League programs in Penn and Yale. The committee appears to respect this team, giving them an excellent shot at a Top 4 seed if they finish 12-0.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Lafayette

Lafayette is the biggest threat to Lehigh in the race for the Patriot League auto bid. The Leopards don't have a good enough resume for an at-large bid, but they are still 5-0 in conference play, meaning they still have a chance to win the auto bid. They are 7-1 against the FCS, and as long as they beat Lehigh on the final weekend of the regular season, they will win the auto bid. Bubble teams should pay attention to this situation, because Lafayette could be one of the biggest bid thieves of the year.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Drake, St. Thomas, San Diego, Dayton, Presbyterian

Chaos struck the Pioneer League race last weekend. Drake suffered an upset loss to St. Thomas, and Presbyterian was unable to take advantage with its loss against Davidson. Drake still controls its own destiny despite the loss, but San Diego, St. Thomas, Dayton, and Presbyterian all lurk behind with two conference losses. Dayton will play Drake this weekend in a massive Pioneer League matchup this weekend.

SoCon

Locks: Mercer

Mercer got a massive road win over Western Carolina, which clinched the SoCon auto bid. The Bears return to the field against Chattanooga and could secure a Top 8 seed with a win before a season-ending FBS game against Auburn.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Western Carolina

Western Carolina missed a potential game-winning field goal against Mercer this past Saturday. The Catamounts are in a tough spot, needing wins against ETSU and VMI to keep their playoff hopes alive at 8-4 overall. At that point, they will have an interesting case for an at-large bid. Western Carolina passes the eye test with Taron Dickens in the lineup. They are 6-1 with him at quarterback, but still don't have a true quality win. They may need some help on the bubble.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Stephen F. Austin, Southeastern Louisiana, Lamar

The Southland Conference had the best-case scenario happen last weekend, and now has an excellent chance to get three teams in the field. Lamar beat Southeastern Louisiana, and even if Lamar doesn't beat SFA, they have an excellent shot at receiving an at-large bid with wins over SLU and South Dakota. Stephen F. Austin will reach at least nine wins, and if they win this weekend, they will secure the automatic bid and win the conference title. I'm not sure if SFA has the resume to get a Top 8 seed, but it would be somewhere in the Top 16.

Southeastern Louisiana may be in the toughest spot now after a loss to Lamar. Their best win is over UTRGV, meaning the Lions will need to win out to earn an at-large bid. At 9-1 against the FCS, it would be shocking if the Lions weren't one of the last teams in the field. They have a tough matchup against UIW this weekend and can't afford to suffer an upset loss.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks wide receiver Jordan Nabors (5) | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

UAC

Locks: Tarleton State

Tarleton State enjoyed a bye week, giving the Texans an opportunity to get healthy after a loss to Abilene Christian two weeks ago. The Texans still have an excellent resume with nine Division I wins, an FBS win over Army, and a Top 30 SOS. They also have five Top 50 wins (Massey), only NDSU and Montana can match that. The Texans need to bounce back this weekend, but are on pace to be a lock for a Top 8 seed.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Austin Peay, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah

Abilene Christian sits in a great spot at 6-2 against the FCS, which includes four ranked wins. They handled business against Utah Tech last weekend and control their own destiny for the UAC auto bid, but four losses mean they can't afford to slip up in the final two weeks. They have two difficult road wins against EKU and Central Arkansas, which could be something to monitor. The Wildcats have a chance to get in at 7-5 with two FBS losses and a Top 10 SOS, however, they will not want to leave it up to the committee.

Southern Utah continued its winning streak, improving to 5-5 overall, and finishes the year against two of the worst teams in the UAC. The Thunderbirds will be heavy favorites in both games, meaning they should get to 7-5, and while they would need a ton of help, they would have a better resume than people expect with wins over Austin Peay and Abilene Christian.

Speaking of Austin Peay, the Governors are in a tough spot at 6-4 overall. They have two games remaining, including a road matchup with Tarleton State. The Govs need to win out and upset the Texans to make the field, even with an FBS win over Middle Tennessee State. A resume at 7-5 would need some help, especially since they lost head-to-head matchups against Southern Utah and Abilene Christian.

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