College Football Playoff Straight Up Picks for Semifinals (Can Oregon Upset Indiana?)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 6, 2026

Oregon is an underdog against Indiana in the College Football Playoff semifinal. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Just four college football teams are left in contention to win this season's National Championship.

After shocking upsets by Ole Miss against Georgia and Miami against Ohio State, we have an unlikely semifinal showdown on one side of the bracket. The other side, meanwhile, has a relatively expected matchup between Indiana and Oregon.

In this article, I'm going to tell you which team I expect to win the semifinals and advance to the National Championship Game. We don't care about point spreads here; we just want to know who's going to win.

College Football picks for College Football Playoff Semifinals

No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Pick: Miami -164

I think Ole Miss can keep this game close, but ultimately, Miami will prevail. There's something to be said about the SEC not being what it used to be. Both Alabama and Georgia fell in the second round, and Texas A&M lost in the first. Other conferences have caught up, and Miami has proven it belongs amongst the top teams in the country.

The Hurricanes can put those two ACC losses behind them. They're strong on both sides of the football, and if they can beat Ohio State, they can certainly get past Ole Miss.

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Indiana Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oregon +150

I've been very high on this Oregon team throughout the season. No one has really taken them as a legitimate national championship contender, but I think the Ducks are very much live as underdogs in this matchup. The Ducks are third in the country in adjusted net EPA per play, one spot above Indiana, which comes in at fourth.

Not only are they one of the best teams in the country overall, but the Ducks' defense is the one remaining unit that has a chance to shut down the Heisman Trophy winner. Oregon ranks eighth in opponent dropback EPA and ninth in opponent dropback success rate, allowing just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, which is the third-lowest mark in college football. I'll take the Ducks to pull off the upset.

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