2025 FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: Stephen F. Austin at Montana State

No. 2 seed Montana State hosts No. 7 seed Stephen F. Austin in the quarterfinals of the 2025 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Friday, Dec. 12, at 8 p.m. CT on ESPN. This will be the fifth matchup between these two programs, with Montana State leading the all-time series 4-2.

The winner will advance to the semifinals, where they will face the winner of No. 2 seed Montana and No. 11 seed South Dakota.

No. 7 Stephen F. Austin at No. 2 Montana State

Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 12 at 8 pm CT (ESPN)

Line: Montana State (-13.5)

Series History: Montana State leads 4-2

It was a bit of a sleepy performance from Montana State last weekend. The Bobcats defeated Yale 21-13, but the offense never seemed to find its rhythm, while the defense did enough to keep the Yale offense at bay. Montana State will need a much more complete performance on Friday night. Even with the lackluster offensive performance, the Bobcats enter this weekend on a 10-game winning streak.

Stephen F. Austin won a high-scoring battle against Abilene Christian, avenging a head-to-head loss from Week 2. The Lumberjacks have now won 11 consecutive games, winning eight of those games by 14 points or more. This will be the toughest of the season for the Lumberjacks, who now have to make a trip to Bozeman, where Montana State is 8-1 in postseason games under Brent Vigen.

This game really could be decided by Stephen F. Austin's ability to stop the run. Montana State ranks No. 4 nationally with 234.6 rushing yards per game, while SFA ranks No. 3 nationally in rushing defense with 87.8 rushing yards per game allowed. Can the Lumberjacks find a way to slow down Montana State's rushing attack?

The Bobcats feature a dangerous duo at running back with Julius Davis and Adam Jones, who have combined for 1,750 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns. Justin Lamson is a threat in the plus-one run game, adding 645 yards and 11 touchdowns. Montana State has rushed for 230 or more yards in six of the past seven games, including four consecutive entering this matchup.

Even with the statistical success the Lumberjacks have found, it can be argued that they haven't seen a rushing attack this talented. SFA has also allowed 130 or more rushing yards in three consecutive games, including over 200 yards against ACU last weekend. Linebacker Jaydon Southard will be a key player to watch in this game. He currently leads the team with 116 tackles, while adding 10.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, and one interception.

The key for the Lumberjacks will be to stop the run and generate negative plays, keeping Montana State off-schedule and behind the chains. If the Bobcats have to put the ball in the air consistently, SFA's defense features two of the best cornerbacks in the country. My question will be, can Montana State's wide receivers win those 1-on-1 matchups on the outside?

Charles Demmings is a top FCS NFL prospect, posting four interceptions and five pass breakups on limited targets. He's only allowed 17 receptions on 36 targets (47.2%) in 12 games. On the other side, Jalen Mayo is having a breakout season after transferring from Virginia Union. He also has four interceptions with nine pass breakups, ranking third on the team with 42 tackles. Mayo gets more targets due to Demmings, but has only allowed 26 catches on 52 targets (50%), allowing only one touchdown this year.

Taco Dowler is the unquestioned No. 1 target at receiver, leading the team with 61 receptions for 751 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Outside of Dowler, the Bobcats don't have another receiver over 400 yards this season. Dane Steel and Jabez Woods have been solid in moments, but the x-factor could be Chris Long, who was injured earlier this season but has shown some nice playmaking ability.

It might come down to Stephen F. Austin's ability to get pressure on Lamson, who has been excellent this year, completing 71.8% of his passes for 2,437 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and two interceptions. If Lamson has time in the pocket, he's going to make the right decision with the ball. He can also make plays with his legs, which we've seen in a few huge moments throughout the season.

On the other side, Montana State has one of the most underrated defensive units in the FCS. The Bobcats are holding opponents to 5.71 yards per pass attempt, ranking No. 5 nationally, and 3.8 yards per carry. It starts with Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year Caden Dowler, who leads the team with 82 tackles and five interceptions.

All eyes will be on Montana State's young cornerbacks, who have been outstanding this season. Carson Williams was named a Freshman All-American, posting 36 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and six pass breakups. Jhase McMillan, Takhari Carr, and Seth Johnson have also played significant roles for the Bobcats as underclassmen. The Bobcats need solid performances again from this young group against a dangerous SFA passing attack.

Stephen F. Austin quarterback Sam Vidlak had his best performance of the season last weekend. He's completed 67.2% of his passes for 2,447 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and six interceptions this season. Kylon Harris is a superstar on the outside, posting 75 catches for 983 yards and 10 touchdowns. Clayton Wayland has also been excellent, adding 499 yards and four touchdowns. Don't overlook sophomore Derrick Bohler, who has become a bigger factor late in the season.

My biggest concern in this game is Stephen F. Austin's ability to establish the run. Jerrell Wimbley is solid, rushing for 940 yards and nine touchdowns, but this Montana State defense has been really good against the run. The Lumberjacks have to stay ahead of the chains because Montana State's defensive line can get to the quarterback without blitzing in obvious passing situations.

Kenneth Eiden IV can be a threat off the edge, leading the Bobcats with 11 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Hunter Parsons and Zac Crews can also be a factor, combining for 15.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. On the interior, Alec Eckert and Paul Brott are excellent against the run, while Eckert also offers some upside as a pass rusher.

Special teams always seem to be overlooked, but this game features some of the best return specialists in the country. SFA's Bugs Mortimer missed last week's game, but is expected to return for this game. He is averaging over 21 yards per punt return and leads the FCS with four punt return touchdowns. Montana State's Jabez Woods is averaging over 30.5 yards per kick return, while Taco Dowler is an All-American punt return specialist.

Stephen F. Austin is going to have to find some balance offensively, but I don't trust the Lumberjacks to run the ball consistently against this Montana State defense. Vidlak will most likely make some plays, but I think the Bobcats wear down this SFA defense with their rushing attack.

I like Montana State here behind a strong rushing performance on Friday night.

Prediction: Montana State (31-20)

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