Behind The Numbers: Week 13 FCS Football Preview

There are a handful of key matchups that will have a major impact on the FCS Playoff picture, along with potential seeding implications and conference championship races. We wanted to take a closer look at some of these must-see games, examining the numbers behind them to determine which teams are best positioned to make a statement on Saturday.

All the statistics below are from conference play only, providing a more accurate picture of how these teams are performing currently. It helps remove outliers, such as FBS and Division II opponents.

Below we go behind the numbers of some of the biggest games on the Week 13 slate.

Sacramento State at No. 15 UC Davis

When Sacramento State Has The Ball:

Sacramento State	UC Davis
Scoring Offense (37.7 PPG, 3rd in Big Sky)	Scoring Defense (24.1 PPG, 2nd in Big Sky)
Total Offense (6.5 YPP, 4th)	Total Defense (5.9 YPP, 4th)
Rushing Offense (5.7 YPC, 2nd)	Rushing Defense (4.6 YPC, 6th)
Passing Offense (8.6 YPA, 3rd)	Passing Defense (7.2 YPA, 4th)
Sacks Allowed (2.4 per game, 10th)	Sacks Per Game (2.4 per game, 2nd)
RZ TD% (53%, 5th)	RZ TD% Allowed (50%, 1st)

When UC Davis Has The Ball:

UC Davis	Sacramento State
Scoring Offense (31.6 PPG, 4th in Big Sky)	Scoring Defense (28.6 PPG, 8th in Big Sky)
Total Offense (6.7 YPP, 3rd)	Total Defense (5.3 YPP, 2nd)
Rushing Offense (4.6 YPC, 5th)	Rushing Defense (4.0 YPC, 3rd)
Passing Offense (9.4 YPA, 2nd)	Passing Defense (6.9 YPA, 3rd)
Sacks Allowed (2.9 per game, 11th)	Sacks Per Game (2.7 per game, 1st)
RZ TD% (69%, 4th)	RZ TD% Allowed (65.4%, 7th)

The stakes of this year's Causeway Classic couldn't be any bigger. The winner will be locked into the playoffs, while the loser could be left on the outside looking in. This may be one of the simplest breakdowns we have to do here. Will UC Davis be able to slow down Sacramento State's rushing attack?

The numbers could be misleading. Sacramento State ranks 3rd in the Big Sky in yards per pass attempt, but that's because they don't do it often and use the run to set up chunk plays downfield. The Hornets do not want to end up in many obvious passing situations.

UC Davis has been fairly good against the run in Big Sky play, except for a complete breakdown against Idaho State and a second-half collapse against Montana State. I do think the Aggies can hold up against the run early, but will they be able to do it for all four quarters?

On the other side of the ball, Sacramento State has been great against the run and has been generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They don't give up a ton of completions, but they will give up explosive plays on the back end. It's concerning because there aren't many better offensive minds in the FCS than Tim Plough.

The concern for the Aggies will be pass protection and keeping Caden Pinnick clean in the pocket. They've allowed nearly three sacks per game, and now they face the best pass rush in the Big Sky. This game will likely be decided by Sacramento State's ability to rush the passer and force Caden Pinnick into mistakes and turnovers.

No. 8 Harvard at Yale

When Harvard Has The Ball:

Harvard	Yale
Scoring Offense (36.2 PPG, 1st in Ivy)	Scoring Defense (16 PPG, 1st in Ivy)
Total Offense (6.4 YPP, 1st)	Total Defense (4.7 YPP, 2nd)
Rushing Offense (4.6 YPC, 2nd)	Rushing Defense (2.9 YPC, 1st)
Passing Offense (8.3 YPA, 1st)	Passing Defense (6.6 YPA, 3rd)
Sacks Allowed (1.0 per game, 2nd)	Sacks Per Game (4.2 per game, 1st)
RZ TD% (65.5%, 2nd)	RZ TD% Allowed (31.8%, 1st)

When Yale Has The Ball:

Yale	Harvard
Scoring Offense (27.2 PPG, 3rd in Ivy)	Scoring Defense (16.3 PPG, 2nd in Ivy)
Total Offense (5.9 YPP, 2nd)	Total Defense (4.5 YPP, 1st)
Rushing Offense (5.0 YPC, 1st)	Rushing Defense (3.0 YPC, 2nd)
Passing Offense (7.4 YPA, 3rd)	Passing Defense (5.8 YPA, 1st)
Sacks Allowed (0.8 per game, 1st)	Sacks Per Game (2.5 per game, 2nd)
RZ TD% (48%, 6th)	RZ TD% Allowed (55%, 4th)

Much of this matchup will come down to whether Yale can control the pace of the game. On offense, Yale has one of the highest run rates in the nation, which typically leads to low-possession, low-scoring games. Yale running back Josh Pitsenberger is one of the best in the country, but he needs to have a big day against an excellent Harvard run defense. Big moments on 3rd-and-short or at the goal line will determine who wins this game.

One area where Yale has struggled is converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. The Bulldogs are going to have a hard time winning this game if they have to settle for field goals in the red zone. Another important factor will be Yale's ability to keep a lid on Jaden Craig and an explosive Harvard passing attack.

This matchup features one of the best passing blocking units in the Ivy League against an elite pass rush from Yale. The Bulldogs have been dominant with 25 sacks in only six conference games. If Harvard can slow down Yale's pass rush, they will have an opportunity to push the ball downfield against Yale's secondary.

No. 4 Lehigh at Lafayette

When Lehigh Has The Ball:

Lehigh	Lafayette
Scoring Offense (32.5 PPG, 2nd in Patriot)	Scoring Defense (25.7 PPG, 3rd in Patriot)
Total Offense (6.7 YPP, 2nd)	Total Defense (5.2 YPP, 3rd)
Rushing Offense (5.5 YPC, 2nd)	Rushing Defense (3.5 YPC, 2nd)
Passing Offense (8.8 YPA, 1st)	Passing Defense (6.4 YPA, 3rd)
Sacks Allowed (1.0 per game, 1st)	Sacks Per Game (3.0 per game, 3rd)
RZ TD% (57.7%, 6th)	RZ TD% Allowed (58.3%, 4th)

When Lafayette Has The Ball:

Lafayette	Lehigh
Scoring Offense (40.5 PPG, 1st in Patriot)	Scoring Defense (9.0 PPG, 1st in Patriot)
Total Offense (7.5 YPP, 1st)	Total Defense (4.3 YPP, 1st)
Rushing Offense (6.9 YPC, 1st)	Rushing Defense (2.3 YPC, 1st)
Passing Offense (8.1 YPA, 3rd)	Passing Defense (6.3 YPA, 2nd)
Sacks Allowed (1.3 per game, 3rd)	Sacks Per Game (4.3 per game, 1st)
RZ TD% (71.4%, 1st)	RZ TD% Allowed (35.7%, 1st)

One of the most historic rivalries in college football will feature a battle for the Patriot League championship this weekend. The main focus in this game will be the fast-paced firepower of Lafayette's offense against Lehigh's dominant defense. Lafayette running back Kente Edwards is averaging an incredible 10 yards per carry in conference play. His ability to generate explosive runs will go a long way in deciding the winner of this game.

Another area to watch is the red zone, where Lehigh has been incredible throughout conference play. They are holding opponents to a touchdown on only 35.7% of their red zone opportunities. On the other side, Lafayette is scoring on 71.4% of its red zone trips, making this a huge matchup to watch on Saturday.

When Lehigh has the ball, it may look to exploit Lafayette's secondary, which has been prone to allowing explosive plays. Look for the Mountain Hawks to establish the run, while looking for their opportunities to take shots downfield to Geoffrey Jamiel.

No. 22 South Dakota State at No. 13 North Dakota

When South Dakota State Has The Ball:

South Dakota State	North Dakota
Scoring Offense (22.6 PPG, 7th in MVFC)	Scoring Defense (16.9 PPG, 2nd in MVFC)
Total Offense (5.0 YPP, 9th)	Total Defense (4.5 YPP, 2nd)
Rushing Offense (3.6 YPC, 10th)	Rushing Defense (3.1 YPC, 1st)
Passing Offense (6.7 YPA, 7th)	Passing Defense (5.9 YPA, 2nd)
Sacks Allowed (2.7 per game, 9th)	Sacks Per Game (3.3 per game, 1st)
RZ TD% (71.4%, 4th)	RZ TD% Allowed (45%, 1st)

When North Dakota Has The Ball:

North Dakota	South Dakota State
Scoring Offense (31.4 PPG, 5th in MVFC)	Scoring Defense (24.0 PPG, 3rd in MVFC)
Total Offense (5.7 YPP, 5th)	Total Defense (5.5 YPP, 3rd)
Rushing Offense (5.1 YPC, 4th)	Rushing Defense (4.0 YPC, 3rd)
Passing Offense (6.5 YPA, 9th)	Passing Defense (7.2 YPA, 5th)
Sacks Allowed (0.6 per game, 1st)	Sacks Per Game (1.9 per game, 4th)
RZ TD% (67.9%, 7th)	RZ TD% Allowed (60%, 3rd)

Another game this weekend where both teams need a win to secure their spot in the FCS Playoffs. Both teams have struggled in moments of some of their biggest games of the year. South Dakota State enters this one on a four-game losing streak, while North Dakota has failed to make the big play to win multiple games this season.

The statistics point to a defensive slugfest, where both offenses will struggle to find much success. SDSU has really struggled to run the ball and protect the quarterback, while the North Dakota defense ranks 1st in the MVFC in sacks per game and run defense. Meanwhile, SDSU has been good against the run and excellent in the red zone, while the secondary has struggled at times.

North Dakota wants to establish the run, especially with its passing attack not clicking over the past few games. The Hawks have also not found much success in the red zone, ranking 7th in the MVFC in touchdown percentage.

The numbers suggest a low-scoring affair, meaning special teams, turnovers, red-zone success, and short-yardage conversions will have an even bigger impact than they normally would. The team that limits its mistakes the best will probably come away with a win on Saturday, securing its spot in the postseason.

No. 3 Montana State at No. 2 Montana

When Montana State Has The Ball:

Montana State	Montana
Scoring Offense (47.4 PPG, 1st in Big Sky)	Scoring Defense (24.3 PPG, 3rd in Big Sky)
Total Offense (7.6 YPP, 1st)	Total Defense (5.7 YPP, 3rd)
Rushing Offense (6.4 YPC, 1st)	Rushing Defense (3.4 YPC, 1st)
Passing Offense (9.6 YPA, 1st)	Passing Defense (7.3 YPA, 6th)
Sacks Allowed (2.0 per game, 8th)	Sacks Per Game (2.4 per game, 4th)
RZ TD% (80.6%, 1st)	RZ TD% Allowed (59.3%, 5th)

When Montana Has The Ball:

Montana	Montana State
Scoring Offense (41.4 PPG, 2nd in Big Sky)	Scoring Defense (11.7 PPG, 1st in Big Sky)
Total Offense (6.3 YPP, 5th)	Total Defense (4.4 YPP, 1st)
Rushing Offense (4.4 YPC, 8th)	Rushing Defense (3.4 YPC, 2nd)
Passing Offense (8.5 YPA, 4th)	Passing Defense (5.2 YPA, 1st)
Sacks Allowed (1.3 per game, 2nd)	Sacks Per Game (1.7 per game, 6th)
RZ TD% (77.4%, 2nd)	RZ TD% Allowed (53.3%, 3rd)

It is well-documented that the home team has dominated this series over the past few games. Ultimately, this sport is still about execution and matchups. Let's take a look at what the statistics say about this year's Brawl of the Wild, which will also determine the Big Sky championship.

The biggest advantage appears to be Montana State's ability to create explosive plays in the passing game. Montana's passing defense has given up some big plays through conference play, but the Bobcats are not going to be a team that wants to throw the ball 30+ times. They are most likely going to establish the run, then look for opportunities to take those downfield shots.

Whether or not this is successful will be determined by early-down success. If the Bobcats can stay ahead of the chains and force Montana to commit more players to the box, it will open up the RPO pass game and create opportunities for explosive plays downfield.

If the Grizzlies can keep Montana State in 3rd-and-long situations, they can leave more players in coverage and take this game over with their pass rush. That's one spot where the Bobcats have not been dominant, giving up over two sacks per game in conference play.

On the other side of the ball, Montana needs to get Eli Gillman and the rushing attack going against a solid Montana State run defense. The Grizzlies have fallen to 8th in the Big Sky for yards per carry (4.4). They need to take the pressure off of Keali'i Ah Yat and allow him to take his shots against the Montana State secondary, which has been elite this season.

The Grizzlies have some of the best playmakers in the FCS, and when push comes to shove, Montana has found success against every defense it has seen this season. Ah Yat's ability to play mistake-free football may be the difference in this game.

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