Behind The Numbers: FCS Playoffs Semifinals Preview
Before the playoffs, we took an in-depth statistical look at each playoff team and used those statistics to look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Below we go behind the numbers for each semifinal matchup of the FCS Playoffs.
NOTE: Overall statistical rankings come from FCS Football Central’s average of several important factors. Rankings can be found in the Behind The Numbers article below. The rankings have been adjusted to 1-4 for the four teams left in the semifinals.
No. 5 UAlbany vs No. 1 South Dakota State
The semifinal battle in Brookings gives us a matchup between the two best defensive teams in the FCS. Both teams allow under five yards per play and both teams are holding opponents to less than 3.5 yards per carry. This will be a tough, physical game where yards will come at a premium. Both teams excel in the red zone and at limiting explosive plays. South Dakota State ranks No. 1 in red zone touchdown percentage (34.48%) and explosive plays allowed (5.45%), while UAlbany ranks No. 2 in both categories (41.86%; 5.77%). South Dakota State has the most talented back seven in the FCS as Dalys Beanum, DyShawn Gales, Tucker Large, Jason Freeman, Adam Bock, and Isaiah Stalbird are some of the top players in the FCS at their position. UAlbany is led by playmakers in the front seven, most notably, defensive ends Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon. The pair has combined for 43 Tackles for Loss and 27.5 sacks this season.
The key for both teams will be establishing offensive consistency against these talented defensive units. South Dakota State has the No. 1 overall offense in the FCS and has answers for nearly any problem a defense can present. The Jackrabbits have experience at every level and All-American level talent at almost every position on the offensive side of the ball. The two games South Dakota State struggled were against Southern Illinois in Week 7 and the game last week against Villanova. The Salukis were able to slow down the rushing attack, holding the Jacks to under five yards a carry. Last week, outside of Isaiah Davis' 66-yard touchdown run, Villanova held South Dakota State to 4.7 yards per carry, almost two yards per carry below the season average for the Jacks. UAlbany will need to stop the run early and force South Dakota State into 3rd and long situations. The good news for UAlbany is that the Great Danes have the No. 1 rush defense in the FCS and are only allowing 2.61 yards per carry. On paper, UAlbany has the defense to keep this game competitive and give themselves a chance to pull off the upset. The major concern for UAlbany is the lack of depth on the line of scrimmage. The Great Danes have to avoid what happened to Villanova a week ago and keep themselves from wearing down in the 4th quarter, which could be an issue after another long cross-country trip for UAlbany.
Quarterback Reese Poffenbarger is the key to UAlbany's offensive success. South Dakota State's style of defense gives up short plays but prevents explosive plays down the field. Poffenbarger has shown flashes of potentially being the best quarterback in the FCS and at other times he makes head-scratching decisions, which will be costly against the Jackrabbits. Poffenbarger will have to show patience and maturity this weekend while taking what South Dakota State's defense will give him. The result of the game probably rests on what version of Reese Poffenbarger we see on Friday night. If Poffenbarger plays at his potential then UAlbany will stick around in this game and even have a chance to pull off the historic upset. If Poffenbarger turns the ball over and plays inefficiently, this game could be a blowout in favor of the No. 1 seed.
North Dakota State vs No. 2 Montana
North Dakota State enters this game as a slight favorite, but it would be a mistake to assume Montana’s overtime win against Furman and North Dakota State’s domination over South Dakota will have a large impact on this weekend's matchup. In the second round, the Bison needed a blocked extra point to beat a Montana State team that Montana dismantled to end the regular season. The strength of Montana is on the defensive side of the ball, while the strength of North Dakota State is on the offensive side. North Dakota State’s No. 2 rushing offense (5.85 YPC) will face Montana’s No. 3 ranked rush defense (3.26 YPC). Cam Miller and the Bison need to establish the rushing attack early, which will open up the downfield passing attack. In all of North Dakota State's losses, the opposing teams were able to capitalize on Cam Miller trying to force throws down the field. If Montana can contain the Bison rushing attack, the Grizzlies could be able to capitalize on some mistakes from the Bison offense.
The best part of this Montana offense is led by the elite talent at the skill positions and creating plays in space. Quarterback Clifton McDowell, Eli Gillman, Junior Bergen, Keelan White, and Aaron Fontes all have home-run potential. The Grizzlies do not have the most consistent offense (5.62 YPP) but find creative ways to get the ball to their top playmakers and create explosive plays. On defense, North Dakota State has allowed opponents to move the ball down the field and rack up plenty of yards this season, but do an excellent job at generating pressure on dropbacks (64%) and generate turnovers at a high rate. Safety Cole Wisniewski leads the nation with eight interceptions and as a team, the Bison lead the FCS with 21 interceptions. Special teams are another factor to watch as Junior Bergen changed the game last weekend against Furman. Special teams and the turnover battle may be the two biggest keys this weekend.
