FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 17 (Week 8)
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As the 2023 FCS season shifts to a loaded Week 8 slate, it is time to take a closer look at the current FCS playoff picture.
After each week we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2023 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.
Teams that are “Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups and “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs. 46 teams are mentioned in this week's playoff picture, but only 24 will get in later this season.
Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference.
Big Sky
Locks: None
Should be in: Idaho, Sacramento State, Montana, Montana State
Even after Saturday night’s loss Idaho has a strong resume with a win over Sacramento State and an FBS win over Nevada. Unless the Vandals collapse down the stretch this team should receive an At-Large bid. The Vandals could lock up a Top-8 seed with an upset over Montana State in two weeks. Wins in two of the last four games will move Idaho to "Lock" status. Sacramento State has a big Power-Five win over Stanford that propels this team to the "Should Be In" tier. The Hornets' only loss is at Idaho and winning a majority of the final five games should earn the Hornets an at-large bid. Montana’s resume received a huge boost after the road win at Idaho Saturday night. The Grizzlies also have a road win at UC Davis and will only need to win two of the last four games to lock in a playoff berth. I wanted to make Montana State a lock as this team looks like one of the best teams in the nation (see the performance in Brookings), but the Bobcats are lacking a signature win on the resume at this point of the season. Montana State has been dominant in wins over lesser competition and will have plenty of opportunities over the next five weeks to add some signature wins.
Work to Do: UC Davis, Portland State, Idaho State, EWU, Weber State
All five of these teams have two things in common. Each team has not suffered a season-ending loss but does not have a true signature win on the resume. Idaho State, Eastern Washington, and Weber State need to win out to have a chance to stay alive in the playoff race. UC Davis and Portland State both avoid Idaho and Montana State to finish the season and the Nov. 4 contest between the two teams may be an elimination game.
Big South – OVC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: UT Martin, SEMO, Tennessee State
With an overtime win over Eastern Illinois, UT Martin is still undefeated against FCS competition and has the lead in the Big South–OVC race. The Nov. 11 matchup with SEMO will most likely decide the team that wins the conference. SEMO struggled in out-of-conference play and lost an opportunity to receive an at-large bid. UT Martin could lose the game to SEMO and still receive an at-large bid by winning out. Tennessee State has a close conference loss to UT Martin but could still finish the year 9-2 (8 FBS wins) with losses to UT Martin and Notre Dame. The Tigers might lack a quality win but finishing the season with only one loss against FCS competition would make a compelling argument to the committee.
*Eastern Illinois has a solid win over Illinois State but has already lost to UT Martin and SEMO which I believe eliminates them from contending for the FCS playoffs.
CAA
Locks: None
Should be in: Delaware
Delaware stands alone atop the CAA standings after seven weeks. The Blue Hens are undefeated against FCS competition and possess a solid win over New Hampshire. Delaware only has two games left against top CAA teams (Villanova and Elon). As long as the Blue Hens win three of the last five games, Delaware should earn a bid. If Delaware can win out this team will also earn a top 8 seed.
Work to do: Villanova, William & Mary, UAlbany, Elon, New Hampshire, Richmond, Rhode Island, Campbell
The CAA is still wide open and there are a ton of teams with decent resumes that could separate themselves in the coming weeks. All eight of these teams will need to win most of the remaining games to earn an at-large bid. The conference as a whole will only get three or four bids maximum, which gives each conference game going forward huge implications. Villanova is the closest to moving into the “Should be in” tier. The Wildcats have dominant wins over Rhode Island and Elon, with the only FCS loss being to UAlbany. The Great Danes only have one loss against FCS competition and a win over Villanova. However, because of two FBS losses, the Great Danes will need to win three or four of the last five games. William & Mary entered the season highly ranked and has only lost one game against FCS opponents but lacks a signature win. The Tribe probably needs to win the UAlbany or Richmond game to secure its spot.
MVFC
Locks: South Dakota State
South Dakota State is the only team in the country that I would consider to be a lock after Week 7. The Jackrabbits have the most impressive win of the season, which is a Week 2 win over Montana State. South Dakota State has been dominant in conference play and is the clear favorite to get the No. 1 overall seed.
Should be in: South Dakota, Southern Illinois
The team that is the best postseason bet is South Dakota. The Coyotes are 3-0 in conference play and undefeated against FCS teams. Out of the five remaining games, two come against Indiana State and Western Illinois (likely wins). Even if South Dakota loses the other three games, a 7-4 team with wins at North Dakota State and against Youngstown State would likely get in. Southern Illinois enters the “Should be in” tier with possibly the best out-of-conference resume of any team. The Salukis have an FBS win over Northern Illinois and solid wins over Austin Peay and SEMO. Southern Illinois also plays Western Illinois and Indiana State in two of the last five games, which puts them in a similar spot to South Dakota.
Work to do: North Dakota, North Dakota State, Illinois State, Youngstown State, Northern Iowa
Two to three of the teams from this group will earn at-large bids which means two or three will not. North Dakota sits the most comfortable of the teams in this group after a huge win over rival North Dakota State. The Fighting Hawks just need to win three of the last five to secure a bid. North Dakota State is clearly not the same team as years past, but the Bison still have a solid resume. A win over Central Arkansas gives the Bison a solid non-conference win on the resume. The Bison sit at 4-2 and the next two games host Western Illinois and Murray State. Assuming the Bison can get to 6-2, they only need to win one of the last three games and this team should get in comfortably. Illinois State’s resume is tricky as the Red Birds have a loss to Eastern Illinois and no signature wins. The good news is Illinois State will face plenty of quality teams down the stretch and will need a couple of victories to improve the resume. Youngstown State and Northern Iowa both sit at 3-3, while the Penguins are 1-2 in the conference and UNI sits at 2-1. Both teams will need to win out to earn an at-large bid.
NEC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Duquesne, Saint Francis, Wagner, and Merrimack
These are the four teams at the top of the NEC race after Week 7. These teams do not have a non-conference win over a Division I opponent so there will be no at-large bids that come from this conference. Duquesne currently leads the pack with a 2-0 conference record but has yet to play any of the true contenders of the conference. Saint Francis has the best win in the group after a 31-7 win over Wagner. Wagner did beat Merrimack 30-27 and there are still plenty of NEC games to be played. Duquesne hosts Saint Francis in Week 8 in a big game for the conference.
Patriot
Locks: None
Should be in: Holy Cross
Work to do: None
Unless Holy Cross falters in conference play, the Patriot League will be a one-bid conference. The Crusaders have four conference games left and a winnable FBS game against Army. Holy Cross competed well against Boston College earlier this season. If the Crusaders do drop a game in conference (likely Lafayette or Georgetown), their chances for an at-large bid would be put in jeopardy. The loss to Harvard leaves Holy Cross with no room for error and the Crusaders will want to focus on winning out.
Pioneer
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Davidson & Drake
This is another conference that will not get an at-large bid. Right now, Davidson and Drake are tied for the conference lead at 3-0. The Wildcats and the Bulldogs do not play each other but Davidson has the advantage. Davidson has already beaten the third and fourth-place teams in the conference (Marist and Butler). The Wildcats looked poised to make the playoffs for the fourth straight season.
Southern
Locks: None
Should be in: Western Carolina & Furman
Both these teams are approaching lock status and the winner of the matchup this weekend will move to the "Lock" tier. Western Carolina is in the best position because of a solid non-conference win over Eastern Kentucky. The Catamounts are undefeated against the FCS and have wins against Samford and Chattanooga. Furman is also undefeated against the FCS but does not have the same level of wins. As long as neither team slips up against the bottom of the conference, both the Catamounts and the Paladins should make the playoffs with one earning a seed.
Work to do: Chattanooga, Mercer, Samford
Chattanooga has the best chance to earn an at-large bid. The Mocs have three FCS opponents left (ETSU, VMI, and Furman), and to guarantee their spot, they will need to win all three. If the Mocs lose to ETSU or VMI that could eliminate Chattanooga from playoff consideration. Mercer sits at 4-3 and needs a huge second half of the season. The Bears need to win on the road at Western Carolina to punch their ticket. I added Samford because if this team finds a way to win the rest of their games and if UT Martin wins the Big South–OVC with a 9-1 record, Samford may be able to sneak into the picture. It will be tough for the Bulldogs and this team cannot afford even the smallest slip-up.
Southland
Locks: None
Should be in: Incarnate Word
Incarnate Word is expected to win the conference and looks like the best team by a wide margin right now. The Southland will not get an at-large bid and if the Cardinals were to not win the conference, they may not be a lock to receive an at-large bid either. Incarnate Word does not have a strong non-conference resume, but I do expect this team to win out and be the lone representative of the Southland.
UAC
Locks: None
Should be in: Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas leads the UAC with a 3-0 conference record and is 5-2 overall with just four games remaining. The Bears have a solid non-conference win over SEMO and have rolled through conference play up to this point of the season. If the Bears can split the final two games between Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay this team will be a lock for the postseason.
Work to do: Austin Peay, Eastern Kentucky, Tarleton State
Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky both have five games remaining and despite being unbeaten in conference play, both will need to either beat Central Arkansas or win the rest of their games to get at-large consideration. The Nov. 4 matchup between Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky will likely be an elimination game. Tarleton State sits at 4-3 after a heartbreaking overtime loss to Eastern Kentucky. Tarleton will need to win their final four games, including a win over Central Arkansas, to receive playoff consideration.
Note: North Carolina Central and Florida A&M will both likely be playing in the SWAC Championship or Celebration Bowl and neither would be eligible for the FCS playoffs. If the Eagles lose one MEAC game and become eligible, North Carolina Central would enter the “Should be in” tier. Florida A&M would have to lose multiple games to not win the SWAC East and this would eliminate the Rattlers from playoff consideration.
